3 ms·
It's too early to call this one for sure, but still, I'm proudly on the record as betting against the Higgs. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry http:
by Eliezer 15y ago
It's too early to call this one for sure, but still, I'm proudly on the record as betting against the Higgs.
http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry
- archgoon 15y agoYou bet even odds. Does this mean you are equally likely to expect a Higgs as not, or simply that your belief of there being no Higgs is equal to that of RolfAndreassen's belief that there is one? Genuinely curious here.
- gjm11 15y agoThe odds (and size of bet) were proposed by the other party. So all you can deduce is that Eliezer thinks Pr(Higgs)<1/2. (If you have a good estimate of Eliezer's risk aversion level for bets of that size, you might be able to get a slightly better estimate, but my guess is that it's extremely close to zero.)
- archgoon 15y agoYes, that's why I asked him.
- Eliezer 15y agoAt this point I'd probably bet 10:1 against the Higgs, even taking into account risk aversion.