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It's true that over time the best reproduction strategy for a virus is to becoming incredibly transmissible but invisible to hosts, but the virus evolves via ra
by mmastrac 5y ago
It's true that over time the best reproduction strategy for a virus is to becoming incredibly transmissible but invisible to hosts, but the virus evolves via random walk and the local maximum could be more transmissible but lethal after a long delay.
There's no guarantees with randomness, though on a decade-long scale we can probably be sure it will fade into the background.
- akira2501 5y agoThe evolution might be random, but the environment it evolves in and human behavior in response to it is not random. It was my understanding that the latter function is why we expect the course to result in a more transmissible but less lethal virus. The more lethal it is, the fewer opportunities it would have to spread.
- catlikesshrimp 5y agoEbola is lethal. HIV is so bad that several treatments had to be engineered.
- akira2501 5y agoIt is lethal to humans, but not to the animals that typically carry it. Ebola didn't evolve in humans to become highly lethal, it evolved to cross species. HIV in and of itself does not kill you. It destroys your immune system in a lengthy process that ultimately leads to opportunistic infections that kill you. This process can take several months to several years. Likewise, HIV crossed species to infect humans, it did not evolve it's capabilities directly in humans.
- sjg007 5y agoIt is naive to think that Sars-Cov2 will evolve to be less lethal.
- catlikesshrimp 5y agoNow that you mention, SarsCovid2 might have originated in either a pangolin, a bat or a bioweapons laboratory, according to early media reports. I can't believe that I am being serious, but it is what it is.
- jml78 5y agoExcept Covid-19 has traditionally had a significant lag time between being infectious and showing the first symptoms