4 ms·

The labor shortage is plenty real and is going to be for a long time. We could massively expand immigration, but we won't.

dillondoyle 5y ago
Which would also massively help with our population growth and funding entitlements problem. We celebrate quickly giving citizenship to pro bball players (Enes Freedom, who btw I think he's awesome and congrats). But it's inaccessible for so many that would be net contributors to our country! I firmly believe it's rooted in racism & the electoral benefits of Republicans rather than an actual policy/economic debate. Doesn't help when one political party and their news media empire catastrophize and fear monger dangerous, gun toting, drug muling, cartel infested, caravans of chain migration invasions every October on the dot. But perhaps now I'm the one politicking ;)
- throwaway1777 5y ago
  Expanding an underclass of poor migrant workers does not help anyone. How would population growth help us when we also supposedly have a housing shortage in almost every city? Of course we should try to get elite athletes and academics to come to America, but the picture is much less clear for other types of immigration.
  - coliveira 5y ago
    Your thinking goes against the entire history of the US. The goal of having immigrants is that they will come to work and improve their and everyone else's lives, not that they will come rich to support the country.
  - josuepeq 5y ago
    Strongly disagree. Especially in tech, many of our success stories are from people who themselves are first generation Americans with parents that arrived here with literally nothing. American poet Emma Lazarus wrote “The New Colossus,” which now hangs in bronze in the Statue of Liberty’s base. The end of the sonnet goes: “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” America remains competitive by keeping the door open. If we slam the door shut, we could be missing out on the next Steve Jobs.
    - StanislavPetrov 5y ago
      >“Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” We already have millions of tired, poor and huddled masses. Drive down the street in San Fran, LA, Philidelphia or virtually any other big city in America and you'll see their tents on the sidewalks. The idea that its somehow a good idea, let alone necessary, to import millions of poor, unskilled foreign laborers while we have millions of poor Americans already here is wrong and offensive. The somewhat widespread idea that opposing immigration is racist rather than a show of support for the millions of poor Americans we are allowing to languish is similarly offensive.
  - la6471 5y ago
    The sum is greater than parts
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    So can we let skilled tradesmen immigrate then?
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    we already have a large pool of migrant workers and it seems like there isn't enough. right now there is a lack of this 'underclass' labor for farms and other intense, low pay industries. they can't function with covid restrictions on that non-U.S. citizen migrant labor pool. So they aren't stealing jobs they doing jobs that otherwise go unfilled [1] your comment also just writes off an entire class of people and their contributions. America is built on the skill & labor of the 'underclass' and historically there has been movement up the economic ladder. This article and top comment points out that this economic improvement is currently lopsided against low income workers who are producing the net productivity gain for the owners/corps. Housing shortage doesn't have anything to do with immigration. But that's a separate and worthy policy change to discuss as well. There is a lot of research that shows current undocumented immigrants are a net benefit to the US purely economically speaking. Plenty of sources here [2]. I'm agreeing with parent comment in it would also solve our population growth & entitlement problems. another interesting point in this artificial distinction between skill and unskilled: there is a talk on HN of tech corporations exploiting the high skilled tech migrants which you seem to advocate for. using the really harsh immigration laws - for instance can't legally be unemployed or between jobs - to get lower than market price labor at the expense of US citizens on this board. Not as bad as holding passports but it is effective [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/economy/foreign-workers-shortage-hiring.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/economy/foreign-... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_immigrants_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Research%20shows%20that%20undocumented%20immigrants,benefit%20consumers%20by%20reducing%20the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_imm...
    - sokoloff 5y ago
      > Housing shortage doesn't have anything to do with immigration. It does if immigrants want to live in housing. (And I say that as someone who is overall quite pro-immigration.)
      - Nasrudith 5y ago
        Housing demand is highly location significant and immigration for the relevant jobs are in areas of the country where there is a demand shortage. So little in this context. Unless you are retired or a recepient of passive income chances are that if housing in an area is very cheap, you won't be able to afford it. That is the reason prices got so low is a lack of either income generation or demand from those well enough off (vacation homes do not need to be within commuting 'distance-factored-as-time').
roenxi 5y ago
The US is going to get to a population of 333,333,333 people in short order. Is that not enough? While importing cheap labour and working them hard is a road to prosperity - probably quite a good one for all involved - it is hard to see how there can be a pure labour shortage with that many people, that much wealth and that much history of advanced manufacturing. There is probably an organisational problem here somewhere.
- xxpor 5y ago
  The absolute number of people tells you nothing about the state of the labor market. Every additional person demands services, which creates jobs to fufill the demand, and then the employees of that job use their income to pay for goods and services they like, and the economy grows... that's the entire basis of capitalism and economics in general. The economy isn't a zero-sum game. For example, when Orlando had a sudden influx of people move there from PR after Hurricane Maria: "we find that employment in Orlando increased, especially in construction and retail, and find positive aggregate labor market effects for non-Hispanic and less-educated workers. While we find that earnings for these workers decreased slightly in construction, this was balanced by earnings growth in retail and hospitality. These results are consistent with small negative impacts on earnings in sectors exposed to a labor supply shock, offset by positive effects in sectors impacted by an associated positive consumer demand shock." https://www.nber.org/papers/w27718 https://www.nber.org/papers/w27718 Instead what you have is a sudden negative supply shock, due to the pandemic, while simultaneously having a demand shock for goods because of stimulus. Of course prices for the labor demanders will increase.
throwaway1777 5y ago
Much more likely is we increase automation in jobs that no one wants to do like burger flipper or artichoke picker. And this would be a huge productivity win. It also might be rough for society but for productivity it would be huge.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Automating crop picking might be profitable for the growers, but it isn't going to unlock much productivity, it's currently done in a few weeks by a (relatively) small number of people. Probably the same deal with quick serve. They already automate individual tasks as it makes sense, they aren't trying to automate the job.
  - netizen-936824 5y ago
    Freeing up labor resources can, in theory, increase productivity in other areas. Say we have all these artichoke picker people, they get replaced with machines. Those people can now do other work while the artichoke picking output remains the same.
    - antisthenes 5y ago
      Labor is not fungible, because education and training is far more costly than most people think. Especially when transitioning from a low-skill job to a high-skill one. If you think there's a big productivity slowdown now, then oh boy are you going to be surprised when you start massive retraining programs.
  - Nasrudith 5y ago
    Manual crop picking is an economic bottleneck - if prices drop to zero or below (including subsidies) leaving it to rot in the field becomes the main viable option, barring another process which could transform the crops into something profitable.
sg47 5y ago
Not sure why you are being downvoted. The immigration policy especially for high-skilled workers is rooted in racism and is ignored because no party benefits from it. The only solution is for workers to form a PAC and raise funds to influence the political agenda.
rgbrenner 5y ago
Labor productivity = output per hour worked. Adding people does not change labor productivity.
- SkittyDog 5y ago
  Mostly true, to a point... But there will usually be a point of diminishing returns on marginal labor productivity, when we hit the limits of capital utilization. But that's not really relevant in thr current labor market... it seems clesr enough that we're way over at the other end of the scale.

dillondoyle 5y ago

Which would also massively help with our population growth and funding entitlements problem. We celebrate quickly giving citizenship to pro bball players (Enes Freedom, who btw I think he's awesome and congrats). But it's inaccessible for so many that would be net contributors to our country! I firmly believe it's rooted in racism & the electoral benefits of Republicans rather than an actual policy/economic debate. Doesn't help when one political party and their news media empire catastrophize and fear monger dangerous, gun toting, drug muling, cartel infested, caravans of chain migration invasions every October on the dot. But perhaps now I'm the one politicking ;)

throwaway1777 5y ago
Expanding an underclass of poor migrant workers does not help anyone. How would population growth help us when we also supposedly have a housing shortage in almost every city? Of course we should try to get elite athletes and academics to come to America, but the picture is much less clear for other types of immigration.
- coliveira 5y ago
  Your thinking goes against the entire history of the US. The goal of having immigrants is that they will come to work and improve their and everyone else's lives, not that they will come rich to support the country.
- josuepeq 5y ago
  Strongly disagree. Especially in tech, many of our success stories are from people who themselves are first generation Americans with parents that arrived here with literally nothing. American poet Emma Lazarus wrote “The New Colossus,” which now hangs in bronze in the Statue of Liberty’s base. The end of the sonnet goes: “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” America remains competitive by keeping the door open. If we slam the door shut, we could be missing out on the next Steve Jobs.
  - StanislavPetrov 5y ago
    >“Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” We already have millions of tired, poor and huddled masses. Drive down the street in San Fran, LA, Philidelphia or virtually any other big city in America and you'll see their tents on the sidewalks. The idea that its somehow a good idea, let alone necessary, to import millions of poor, unskilled foreign laborers while we have millions of poor Americans already here is wrong and offensive. The somewhat widespread idea that opposing immigration is racist rather than a show of support for the millions of poor Americans we are allowing to languish is similarly offensive.
- la6471 5y ago
  The sum is greater than parts
- maxerickson 5y ago
  So can we let skilled tradesmen immigrate then?
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  we already have a large pool of migrant workers and it seems like there isn't enough. right now there is a lack of this 'underclass' labor for farms and other intense, low pay industries. they can't function with covid restrictions on that non-U.S. citizen migrant labor pool. So they aren't stealing jobs they doing jobs that otherwise go unfilled [1] your comment also just writes off an entire class of people and their contributions. America is built on the skill & labor of the 'underclass' and historically there has been movement up the economic ladder. This article and top comment points out that this economic improvement is currently lopsided against low income workers who are producing the net productivity gain for the owners/corps. Housing shortage doesn't have anything to do with immigration. But that's a separate and worthy policy change to discuss as well. There is a lot of research that shows current undocumented immigrants are a net benefit to the US purely economically speaking. Plenty of sources here [2]. I'm agreeing with parent comment in it would also solve our population growth & entitlement problems. another interesting point in this artificial distinction between skill and unskilled: there is a talk on HN of tech corporations exploiting the high skilled tech migrants which you seem to advocate for. using the really harsh immigration laws - for instance can't legally be unemployed or between jobs - to get lower than market price labor at the expense of US citizens on this board. Not as bad as holding passports but it is effective [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/economy/foreign-workers-shortage-hiring.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/economy/foreign-... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_immigrants_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Research%20shows%20that%20undocumented%20immigrants,benefit%20consumers%20by%20reducing%20the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_imm...
  - sokoloff 5y ago
    > Housing shortage doesn't have anything to do with immigration. It does if immigrants want to live in housing. (And I say that as someone who is overall quite pro-immigration.)
    - Nasrudith 5y ago
      Housing demand is highly location significant and immigration for the relevant jobs are in areas of the country where there is a demand shortage. So little in this context. Unless you are retired or a recepient of passive income chances are that if housing in an area is very cheap, you won't be able to afford it. That is the reason prices got so low is a lack of either income generation or demand from those well enough off (vacation homes do not need to be within commuting 'distance-factored-as-time').

roenxi 5y ago

The US is going to get to a population of 333,333,333 people in short order. Is that not enough? While importing cheap labour and working them hard is a road to prosperity - probably quite a good one for all involved - it is hard to see how there can be a pure labour shortage with that many people, that much wealth and that much history of advanced manufacturing. There is probably an organisational problem here somewhere.

xxpor 5y ago
The absolute number of people tells you nothing about the state of the labor market. Every additional person demands services, which creates jobs to fufill the demand, and then the employees of that job use their income to pay for goods and services they like, and the economy grows... that's the entire basis of capitalism and economics in general. The economy isn't a zero-sum game. For example, when Orlando had a sudden influx of people move there from PR after Hurricane Maria: "we find that employment in Orlando increased, especially in construction and retail, and find positive aggregate labor market effects for non-Hispanic and less-educated workers. While we find that earnings for these workers decreased slightly in construction, this was balanced by earnings growth in retail and hospitality. These results are consistent with small negative impacts on earnings in sectors exposed to a labor supply shock, offset by positive effects in sectors impacted by an associated positive consumer demand shock." https://www.nber.org/papers/w27718 https://www.nber.org/papers/w27718 Instead what you have is a sudden negative supply shock, due to the pandemic, while simultaneously having a demand shock for goods because of stimulus. Of course prices for the labor demanders will increase.

throwaway1777 5y ago

Much more likely is we increase automation in jobs that no one wants to do like burger flipper or artichoke picker. And this would be a huge productivity win. It also might be rough for society but for productivity it would be huge.

maxerickson 5y ago
Automating crop picking might be profitable for the growers, but it isn't going to unlock much productivity, it's currently done in a few weeks by a (relatively) small number of people. Probably the same deal with quick serve. They already automate individual tasks as it makes sense, they aren't trying to automate the job.
- netizen-936824 5y ago
  Freeing up labor resources can, in theory, increase productivity in other areas. Say we have all these artichoke picker people, they get replaced with machines. Those people can now do other work while the artichoke picking output remains the same.
  - antisthenes 5y ago
    Labor is not fungible, because education and training is far more costly than most people think. Especially when transitioning from a low-skill job to a high-skill one. If you think there's a big productivity slowdown now, then oh boy are you going to be surprised when you start massive retraining programs.
- Nasrudith 5y ago
  Manual crop picking is an economic bottleneck - if prices drop to zero or below (including subsidies) leaving it to rot in the field becomes the main viable option, barring another process which could transform the crops into something profitable.

sg47 5y ago

Not sure why you are being downvoted. The immigration policy especially for high-skilled workers is rooted in racism and is ignored because no party benefits from it. The only solution is for workers to form a PAC and raise funds to influence the political agenda.

rgbrenner 5y ago

Labor productivity = output per hour worked. Adding people does not change labor productivity.

SkittyDog 5y ago
Mostly true, to a point... But there will usually be a point of diminishing returns on marginal labor productivity, when we hit the limits of capital utilization. But that's not really relevant in thr current labor market... it seems clesr enough that we're way over at the other end of the scale.