4 ms·

The scale of China's economy and population is so massive that they're clearly capable of hegemony. And as you say, it's good to be at the top. It would be ir

by jcoq 5y ago

The scale of China's economy and population is so massive that they're clearly capable of hegemony. And as you say, it's good to be at the top. It would be irrational of China's leadership to seek anything else.

sudosysgen 5y ago
No, they can never reach hegemony. The economy and population of the US would never have allowed it to reach hegemony if it wasn't for WW2 and it's extremely privileged position in North America. Geographically China will always have a lot of trouble projecting naval power internationally because of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Malaccas. Thus, even if it had 2x the economy of the US, the US would still be able to have a larger general international military reach. To be the hegemon, you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. And by the time the US and Europe seriously decline, China will start declining too. China's leadership would be foolish to seek hegemony. It's just not feasible short of the US going into a civil war, and if you come at the king, you best not miss. Becoming a second king yourself instead of trying to take his place is much less risky and has most of the same rewards. Another way to look at it is that China will never have the same advantage over the US as the US gained over the UK before taking the lead. The US passed the British in economy and population much before it became the hegemon. You need more than an advantage in prosperity.
- mtrovo 5y ago
  What does it mean to be an hegemony on your terms? Economically China being number one is just a matter of time, military I wouldn't count on them stopping short before US. Good luck trying to convince +1B people being fed government propaganda that they're not entitled to everything when they keep pushing 2 digits growth every year for 30 years. You're also missing the long game of China. Probably on our lifetimes the economic focus of the world is going to move to Asia and Africa based on opportunity of growth and demographics, looking from this perspective why would they care about conquering the west when they can just position themselves very well for the long term and have a nice view watching the decline of the west society?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Hegemony means you are able to act mostly uncontested in most of the world. That's what the US can do today. The economic focus in the world moved to the US for about 70 years before the US gained hegemony. You can be number one without being the hegemon.
- lm28469 5y ago
  > you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. "never" is a strong word here. Tech and military wise they're catching up really fast. They have a much fitter and controlled population. Their economy is doing real good, they're spreading their influence over Africa, &c. The US is crumbling on virtually every aspect, Europe isn't doing much better, if China and the US stays on their respective courses your "never" will be more like "in 50-100 years".
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    In 50-100 years China risks demographic decline. China will have an economic advantage for sure, just not enough for a hegemony.

by jcoq 5y ago

sudosysgen 5y ago

No, they can never reach hegemony. The economy and population of the US would never have allowed it to reach hegemony if it wasn't for WW2 and it's extremely privileged position in North America. Geographically China will always have a lot of trouble projecting naval power internationally because of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Malaccas. Thus, even if it had 2x the economy of the US, the US would still be able to have a larger general international military reach. To be the hegemon, you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. And by the time the US and Europe seriously decline, China will start declining too. China's leadership would be foolish to seek hegemony. It's just not feasible short of the US going into a civil war, and if you come at the king, you best not miss. Becoming a second king yourself instead of trying to take his place is much less risky and has most of the same rewards. Another way to look at it is that China will never have the same advantage over the US as the US gained over the UK before taking the lead. The US passed the British in economy and population much before it became the hegemon. You need more than an advantage in prosperity.

mtrovo 5y ago
What does it mean to be an hegemony on your terms? Economically China being number one is just a matter of time, military I wouldn't count on them stopping short before US. Good luck trying to convince +1B people being fed government propaganda that they're not entitled to everything when they keep pushing 2 digits growth every year for 30 years. You're also missing the long game of China. Probably on our lifetimes the economic focus of the world is going to move to Asia and Africa based on opportunity of growth and demographics, looking from this perspective why would they care about conquering the west when they can just position themselves very well for the long term and have a nice view watching the decline of the west society?
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Hegemony means you are able to act mostly uncontested in most of the world. That's what the US can do today. The economic focus in the world moved to the US for about 70 years before the US gained hegemony. You can be number one without being the hegemon.
lm28469 5y ago
> you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. "never" is a strong word here. Tech and military wise they're catching up really fast. They have a much fitter and controlled population. Their economy is doing real good, they're spreading their influence over Africa, &c. The US is crumbling on virtually every aspect, Europe isn't doing much better, if China and the US stays on their respective courses your "never" will be more like "in 50-100 years".
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  In 50-100 years China risks demographic decline. China will have an economic advantage for sure, just not enough for a hegemony.