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There will never be a Chinese hegemony. The actual decision is between US hegemony and a duopolar or multipolar world. The latter are pretty obviously preferabl

There will never be a Chinese hegemony. The actual decision is between US hegemony and a duopolar or multipolar world. The latter are pretty obviously preferable if you're not American or not very closely allied.

jcoq 5y ago
The scale of China's economy and population is so massive that they're clearly capable of hegemony. And as you say, it's good to be at the top. It would be irrational of China's leadership to seek anything else.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  No, they can never reach hegemony. The economy and population of the US would never have allowed it to reach hegemony if it wasn't for WW2 and it's extremely privileged position in North America. Geographically China will always have a lot of trouble projecting naval power internationally because of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Malaccas. Thus, even if it had 2x the economy of the US, the US would still be able to have a larger general international military reach. To be the hegemon, you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. And by the time the US and Europe seriously decline, China will start declining too. China's leadership would be foolish to seek hegemony. It's just not feasible short of the US going into a civil war, and if you come at the king, you best not miss. Becoming a second king yourself instead of trying to take his place is much less risky and has most of the same rewards. Another way to look at it is that China will never have the same advantage over the US as the US gained over the UK before taking the lead. The US passed the British in economy and population much before it became the hegemon. You need more than an advantage in prosperity.
  - mtrovo 5y ago
    What does it mean to be an hegemony on your terms? Economically China being number one is just a matter of time, military I wouldn't count on them stopping short before US. Good luck trying to convince +1B people being fed government propaganda that they're not entitled to everything when they keep pushing 2 digits growth every year for 30 years. You're also missing the long game of China. Probably on our lifetimes the economic focus of the world is going to move to Asia and Africa based on opportunity of growth and demographics, looking from this perspective why would they care about conquering the west when they can just position themselves very well for the long term and have a nice view watching the decline of the west society?
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Hegemony means you are able to act mostly uncontested in most of the world. That's what the US can do today. The economic focus in the world moved to the US for about 70 years before the US gained hegemony. You can be number one without being the hegemon.
  - lm28469 5y ago
    > you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. "never" is a strong word here. Tech and military wise they're catching up really fast. They have a much fitter and controlled population. Their economy is doing real good, they're spreading their influence over Africa, &c. The US is crumbling on virtually every aspect, Europe isn't doing much better, if China and the US stays on their respective courses your "never" will be more like "in 50-100 years".
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      In 50-100 years China risks demographic decline. China will have an economic advantage for sure, just not enough for a hegemony.
rocknor 5y ago
Multipolar is going to be the most likely future, with at least 4 poles: China, India, US, EU. Probably more in far future. Talking about US/China hegemony is just delusional fearmongering.
- Terry_Roll 5y ago
  Have you read 1984? Do you think the world is becoming like that book? Brexit would contribute to that idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four
Paradigma11 5y ago
Because multipolar times have been sooo peaceful......
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  A duopolar system is the most stable.
rtkwe 5y ago
Why is a Chinese hegemony impossible?
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Because to have a true hegemony, you need to be able to project power around the globe mostly uncontested. This is very difficult for China as they are essentially boxed in by Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the nations of the South China Sea, even if they do take Taiwan. So they will never have fully uncontested access to the sea and thus to the world, even if they do surpass the US in military power abroad (which is doubtful).

jcoq 5y ago

The scale of China's economy and population is so massive that they're clearly capable of hegemony. And as you say, it's good to be at the top. It would be irrational of China's leadership to seek anything else.

sudosysgen 5y ago
No, they can never reach hegemony. The economy and population of the US would never have allowed it to reach hegemony if it wasn't for WW2 and it's extremely privileged position in North America. Geographically China will always have a lot of trouble projecting naval power internationally because of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Malaccas. Thus, even if it had 2x the economy of the US, the US would still be able to have a larger general international military reach. To be the hegemon, you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. And by the time the US and Europe seriously decline, China will start declining too. China's leadership would be foolish to seek hegemony. It's just not feasible short of the US going into a civil war, and if you come at the king, you best not miss. Becoming a second king yourself instead of trying to take his place is much less risky and has most of the same rewards. Another way to look at it is that China will never have the same advantage over the US as the US gained over the UK before taking the lead. The US passed the British in economy and population much before it became the hegemon. You need more than an advantage in prosperity.
- mtrovo 5y ago
  What does it mean to be an hegemony on your terms? Economically China being number one is just a matter of time, military I wouldn't count on them stopping short before US. Good luck trying to convince +1B people being fed government propaganda that they're not entitled to everything when they keep pushing 2 digits growth every year for 30 years. You're also missing the long game of China. Probably on our lifetimes the economic focus of the world is going to move to Asia and Africa based on opportunity of growth and demographics, looking from this perspective why would they care about conquering the west when they can just position themselves very well for the long term and have a nice view watching the decline of the west society?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Hegemony means you are able to act mostly uncontested in most of the world. That's what the US can do today. The economic focus in the world moved to the US for about 70 years before the US gained hegemony. You can be number one without being the hegemon.
- lm28469 5y ago
  > you need to have a clear advantage over everyone else. China will never have that over the US+Europe. "never" is a strong word here. Tech and military wise they're catching up really fast. They have a much fitter and controlled population. Their economy is doing real good, they're spreading their influence over Africa, &c. The US is crumbling on virtually every aspect, Europe isn't doing much better, if China and the US stays on their respective courses your "never" will be more like "in 50-100 years".
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    In 50-100 years China risks demographic decline. China will have an economic advantage for sure, just not enough for a hegemony.

rocknor 5y ago

Multipolar is going to be the most likely future, with at least 4 poles: China, India, US, EU. Probably more in far future. Talking about US/China hegemony is just delusional fearmongering.

Terry_Roll 5y ago
Have you read 1984? Do you think the world is becoming like that book? Brexit would contribute to that idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four

Paradigma11 5y ago

Because multipolar times have been sooo peaceful......

sudosysgen 5y ago
A duopolar system is the most stable.

rtkwe 5y ago

Why is a Chinese hegemony impossible?

sudosysgen 5y ago
Because to have a true hegemony, you need to be able to project power around the globe mostly uncontested. This is very difficult for China as they are essentially boxed in by Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the nations of the South China Sea, even if they do take Taiwan. So they will never have fully uncontested access to the sea and thus to the world, even if they do surpass the US in military power abroad (which is doubtful).