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A lot of that can be attributed to a relatively huge early spike in deaths at nursing homes. Rightly, Sweden decided it was a bad idea to do go about business

A lot of that can be attributed to a relatively huge early spike in deaths at nursing homes. Rightly, Sweden decided it was a bad idea to do go about business as usual at nursing homes. After this, their relative difference to other Scandinavian countries is much smaller.

jseban 5y ago
And are those spikes in deaths at nursing homes not normal? Is that not how things always and usually work? Do people at nursing homes not die mostly in the winter and flu season, since forever? What are the statistics of excess mortality, is it higher than usual or not. Old people die. I read headlines in the papers "10 people have died since moving into a nursing home" That's what nursing homes are for. Everyone who moves into a nursing home dies...
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  The average death rate for people in nursing homes for an entire year wasn't even as high as the death rate was for just a few week period: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-nursinghome/swedish-watchdog-finds-serious-failures-in-covid-care-at-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2841FN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden... Almost ~3200 people died in nursing homes in a couple of months at the beginning of the pandemic. There's ~95k people in nursing homes. That's 3.3%... These deaths still account for ~1/5th of all Sweden's covid deaths. Hence, when people say 5x as many people died in Sweden - a full 1x of that is from the early nursing home no-strategy.
  - jseban 5y ago
    Doesn't say anything, death rates are not constant, it always varies a lot ever year by year. Did 2020 have excessive mortality per capita compared to other years or not? No it didn't. It doesn't matter if you find some anecdote. Everyone knows death rate was high in peak covid. As it always is in peak flu season, so what, the year was well within standard deviation
    - Swenrekcah 5y ago
      This is false, you have been misinformed. See here, and compare for instance Sweden with their neighbours Norway and Finland. https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/17/eu-excess-deaths-in-2020-country-by-country-breakdown-of-covid-19-s-impact https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/17/eu-excess-deaths-in-2020...
      - jseban 5y ago
        It doesn't make any sense to compare it to neighboring countries, you need to compare the same country to previous years. That's the real interesting statistic, and the one that nobody is showing you. Because it's not dramatic enough..
        Swenrekcah 5y ago
        The graph is exactly that. Each country’s excess mortality compared to that countries previous years. The comparison with neighbours is to gleam the effects of their differing mitigation strategies.
        jseban 5y ago
        I looked at it again, it's only comparing to the average, without knowing the standard deviation it doesn't really say much. "2020 was above average" yeah we know that, but was it higher than a "usual" year? No it wasn't, and you can't draw that conclusion by comparing it to the average. Also it looks like they are doing the comparison month by month which doesn't make much sense since this will vary a lot of course...
        Swenrekcah 5y ago
        This data is compiled by professional statisticians. Deaths aren't evenly distributed throughout the year. High-traffic seasons will cause a spike, very cold or hot weather, etc. So month-by-month comparison is reasonable. Doing that also shows in the graphs when the waves hit various countries. I agree, it's missing the standard deviation though. (But again, look at the graphs, you'll see a difference of 10, perhaps 20% fluctuating around zero, and then suddenly a wave of 60,80,100% more deaths. It's unlikely a coincidence.

jseban 5y ago

And are those spikes in deaths at nursing homes not normal? Is that not how things always and usually work? Do people at nursing homes not die mostly in the winter and flu season, since forever? What are the statistics of excess mortality, is it higher than usual or not. Old people die. I read headlines in the papers "10 people have died since moving into a nursing home" That's what nursing homes are for. Everyone who moves into a nursing home dies...

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
The average death rate for people in nursing homes for an entire year wasn't even as high as the death rate was for just a few week period: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-nursinghome/swedish-watchdog-finds-serious-failures-in-covid-care-at-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2841FN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden... Almost ~3200 people died in nursing homes in a couple of months at the beginning of the pandemic. There's ~95k people in nursing homes. That's 3.3%... These deaths still account for ~1/5th of all Sweden's covid deaths. Hence, when people say 5x as many people died in Sweden - a full 1x of that is from the early nursing home no-strategy.
- jseban 5y ago
  Doesn't say anything, death rates are not constant, it always varies a lot ever year by year. Did 2020 have excessive mortality per capita compared to other years or not? No it didn't. It doesn't matter if you find some anecdote. Everyone knows death rate was high in peak covid. As it always is in peak flu season, so what, the year was well within standard deviation
  - Swenrekcah 5y ago
    This is false, you have been misinformed. See here, and compare for instance Sweden with their neighbours Norway and Finland. https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/17/eu-excess-deaths-in-2020-country-by-country-breakdown-of-covid-19-s-impact https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/17/eu-excess-deaths-in-2020...
    - jseban 5y ago
      It doesn't make any sense to compare it to neighboring countries, you need to compare the same country to previous years. That's the real interesting statistic, and the one that nobody is showing you. Because it's not dramatic enough..
      - Swenrekcah 5y ago
        The graph is exactly that. Each country’s excess mortality compared to that countries previous years. The comparison with neighbours is to gleam the effects of their differing mitigation strategies.
        jseban 5y ago
        I looked at it again, it's only comparing to the average, without knowing the standard deviation it doesn't really say much. "2020 was above average" yeah we know that, but was it higher than a "usual" year? No it wasn't, and you can't draw that conclusion by comparing it to the average. Also it looks like they are doing the comparison month by month which doesn't make much sense since this will vary a lot of course...
        Swenrekcah 5y ago
        This data is compiled by professional statisticians. Deaths aren't evenly distributed throughout the year. High-traffic seasons will cause a spike, very cold or hot weather, etc. So month-by-month comparison is reasonable. Doing that also shows in the graphs when the waves hit various countries. I agree, it's missing the standard deviation though. (But again, look at the graphs, you'll see a difference of 10, perhaps 20% fluctuating around zero, and then suddenly a wave of 60,80,100% more deaths. It's unlikely a coincidence.