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This is exactly simpsons paradox. It is a shame so few people have heard of it! This same breakdown implies that vaccinating half of the currently unvaxxed wou

This is exactly simpsons paradox. It is a shame so few people have heard of it! This same breakdown implies that vaccinating half of the currently unvaxxed would do a lot to reduce pressure on hospitals. That is, if you have 80% vaxxed, a mere 10% increase could halve the number of hospital beds needed. No wonder governments are going so hard on vaccinating the hesitant and antivax.

makomk 5y ago
No, this does not imply that going from 80% to 90% vaccinated could halve the number of hospital beds needed - that reasoning would only work if the vaccine completely prevented Covid-related hospitalizations, in which case zero vaccinated people would be hospitalized and Simpson's paradox wouldn't apply. What it actually implies is that at much less than 100% vaccination, you hit a point where vaccinating the remaining population does very little to reduce pressure on hospitals because most people who're hospitalized have been vaccinated, despite the fact that the vaccines do reduce the risk of hospitalization. That is, the benefits of vaccinating the last few percent of the population actually diminish rather than increasing like they would do with a more effective vaccine.
- root_axis 5y ago
  > most people who're hospitalized have been vaccinated Is this true? My understanding is that the opposite is true, most people who are hospitalized are not vaccinated by a large margin.
  - yosito 5y ago
    I haven't checked, but I think your understanding is correct. Even if it's not, here's a good explanation https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination
throwaway0a5e 5y ago
>This same breakdown implies that vaccinating half of the currently unvaxxed would do a lot to reduce pressure on hospitals. This ignores the demographic differences between the vaxxed and the unvaxxed. The elderly and those with conditions that made them high risk have a much higher vaccination rate as one would expect. If you cut the number of vaccinated in half you won't cut hospitalizations in half because subgroups of the population being hospitalized are not present in the same ratios in the unvaxed.

makomk 5y ago

No, this does not imply that going from 80% to 90% vaccinated could halve the number of hospital beds needed - that reasoning would only work if the vaccine completely prevented Covid-related hospitalizations, in which case zero vaccinated people would be hospitalized and Simpson's paradox wouldn't apply. What it actually implies is that at much less than 100% vaccination, you hit a point where vaccinating the remaining population does very little to reduce pressure on hospitals because most people who're hospitalized have been vaccinated, despite the fact that the vaccines do reduce the risk of hospitalization. That is, the benefits of vaccinating the last few percent of the population actually diminish rather than increasing like they would do with a more effective vaccine.

root_axis 5y ago
> most people who're hospitalized have been vaccinated Is this true? My understanding is that the opposite is true, most people who are hospitalized are not vaccinated by a large margin.
- yosito 5y ago
  I haven't checked, but I think your understanding is correct. Even if it's not, here's a good explanation https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

>This same breakdown implies that vaccinating half of the currently unvaxxed would do a lot to reduce pressure on hospitals. This ignores the demographic differences between the vaxxed and the unvaxxed. The elderly and those with conditions that made them high risk have a much higher vaccination rate as one would expect. If you cut the number of vaccinated in half you won't cut hospitalizations in half because subgroups of the population being hospitalized are not present in the same ratios in the unvaxed.