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> and in all probability that birth will take place in China or India While they are the most population-dense areas and are growing faster than other places i
by tghw 15y ago
> and in all probability that birth will take place in China or India
While they are the most population-dense areas and are growing faster than other places in the world, I'm pretty sure it's more likely that the 7 billionth person won't be born in India or China.
- burgerbrain 15y agoWhich countries are currently birthing more people/day? If none, then it could be said that China or India are more likely than any other particular country. Is the birth rate of China and India combined more than that of the rest of the world? If so, then it's more likely that it will occur there than anywhere else.
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- boredguy8 15y agoBurger, you're saying something different than the OP (and hence, different than what tghw was criticizing). In "all probability" the location won't be China or India, as those two countries alone don't represent a substantial majority of births. So your point that those two have the highest birth rate isn't responsive to tghw's point that those two alone don't represent the majority of new births. So if we had to bet on "one country", a person would pick one of those two. But when we're betting "India/China or somewhere else?" the smart money is on "somewhere else".
- burgerbrain 15y ago"Is the birth rate of China and India combined more than that of the rest of the world? If so, then it's more likely that it will occur there than anywhere else." I'm asking two questions. The second, quoted here, is saying the same thing as the OP.
- vorg 15y agoIf we had to pick one country for "one country", we would pick India, which seems to now have more births than China each year.
- scythe 15y ago>Is the birth rate of China and India combined more than that of the rest of the world? No, partially due to the one-child policy.
- bdhe 15y agoWhile they are the most population-dense areas and are growing faster than other places in the world, I'm pretty sure it's more likely that the 7 billionth person won't be born in India or China. It takes all of 2 mins to calculate. All facts from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_birth_rate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_de... Birth rate world-wide: 20.3/1000. Population: 7 billion :-) Total # births: ~ 142 million. Birth rate India: 23/1000. Population: 1.2 billion. Total # births: 27.6 million. Birth rate China: 13/1000. (That should surprise people). Population: 1.34 billion. Total # births: 17.4 billion. Therefore the odds of it being India or China is ~ (17.4+27.6)/142 ~ 31%. Fact: Considering that No country has a birth rate larger than 3x India and only China has a population larger than India, India has the maximum # births/year in the world.
- runn1ng 15y agoSo, he was right in stating that "pretty sure it's more likely that the 7 billionth person won't be born in India or China." 31% it will be in India or China, 69% it won't be in India or China.
- baddox 15y agoPresumably, the author meant that the two most likely nations to birth the 7 billionth human are China and India. I doubt the intended comparison was between the set {x ∈ nations : x = China or x = India} and its complement {x ∈ nations : x != China and x != India}.
- tghw 15y agoI realize I'm being a little pedantic, but the original phrasing does read as the probability of it being in India or China is greater than the rest of the world combined.