4 ms·

Vaccinated individuals have shorter infections and a lower viral load than unvaccinated people, and therefore provide less opportunities to develop new variants

by ufo 5y ago

Vaccinated individuals have shorter infections and a lower viral load than unvaccinated people, and therefore provide less opportunities to develop new variants. More virus = more chance for new mutations. The more likely theory is someone immunocompromised who stayed sick for a very long time.

sjg007 5y ago
Right but why didn't they die quicker if they were IC and so sick?
- ufo 5y ago
  The theory is that it would be someone that is immunocompromised enough to just hang in there for a long time. It's a numbers game. The more people that get infected, the bigger the chance a rare event like this will happen. This is one reason why vaccine distribution inequity may come back to bite us.
  - sjg007 5y ago
    Still doesn’t make sense… based on the mutation rate, this would have to be someone infected a year or two ago…
    - slenk 5y ago
      I would like to know how you came to the conclusion that this person would have been infected so long - I'd love to see the math. I'm more inclined to believe the experts in this instance.
      - sjg007 5y ago
        It's pretty simple. You can estimate the genetic mutation rate from the phylogenetic tree since we've been sampling the distribution of Sars-Cov2 genomes since the original Wuhan strain. If that rate is constant and if the variants all mutate at the same speed that gives you a rough timeline. Omicron has 50 mutations that are not related to other known variants. Delta has 13. We've seen delta for about 1 year right? So it's not a big leap to roughly double that estimate for Omicron.
  - solmag 5y ago
    Immunocompromised subpopulation is so small (at least in my country), especially compared to unvaccinated (abt. 30%), that it should be fairly trivial to quarantine them, don't really see an issue here if we are restricting unvaccinated life based on argument about public health.
defaultprimate 5y ago
Incorrect on loads and duration https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19/news/viral-loads-similar-between-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19/news/viral-loads-sim... It makes zero sense for an immunocomprised person to apply selective pressure to the virus that results in several mutations that perfectly evade the vaccines mechanism of action.
- ufo 5y ago
  The experts interviewed in the article the OP posted all agree that a persistent infection in an imunocompromised individual is one of the leading theories. Maybe even more plausible than a reverse zoonotic event. People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variante of coronavirus. They stay sick for a long time (meaning more viral replication and more opportunities for mutation) and they apply a weak immune response which while not sufficient to wipe out the disease, provides selective pressure that rewards immune evasion. There's a common antivaxxer myth that vaccines promote the creation of new variants and that we would be better off without vaccination. I think it's very important to emphasize that is not the case.
  - solmag 5y ago
    > a persistent infection in an imunocompromised individual is one of the most plausible theories > People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variante of coronavirus If it turns out to be the case, should we have HIV / Cancer Patient Passports? After all, these people can be a general danger to public health as they can demonstrably incubate new dangerous strains of diseases, like Omicron.
    - ufo 5y ago
      Of course not! Please don't suggest that I would say such a heartless thing! We're talking about someone who had to be sick for months, probably inside a hospital already. The important thing to do is get everyone vaccinated, including in Africa where there is a tremendous shortage of vaccines. The more the virus spreads, the more chances it has to mutate into new variants. Also, when everyone is vaccinated, the elderly and immunocompromised are less likely to be exposed to the disease; vaccination should be seen first as a public-health policy, not as a means for individual protection. Not to mention that, even though the vaccination is less effective individually for the immunocompromised, they are one of the groups that are at most risk from covid and therefore most benefit from being vaccinated.

by ufo 5y ago

sjg007 5y ago

Right but why didn't they die quicker if they were IC and so sick?

ufo 5y ago
The theory is that it would be someone that is immunocompromised enough to just hang in there for a long time. It's a numbers game. The more people that get infected, the bigger the chance a rare event like this will happen. This is one reason why vaccine distribution inequity may come back to bite us.
- sjg007 5y ago
  Still doesn’t make sense… based on the mutation rate, this would have to be someone infected a year or two ago…
  - slenk 5y ago
    I would like to know how you came to the conclusion that this person would have been infected so long - I'd love to see the math. I'm more inclined to believe the experts in this instance.
    - sjg007 5y ago
      It's pretty simple. You can estimate the genetic mutation rate from the phylogenetic tree since we've been sampling the distribution of Sars-Cov2 genomes since the original Wuhan strain. If that rate is constant and if the variants all mutate at the same speed that gives you a rough timeline. Omicron has 50 mutations that are not related to other known variants. Delta has 13. We've seen delta for about 1 year right? So it's not a big leap to roughly double that estimate for Omicron.
- solmag 5y ago
  Immunocompromised subpopulation is so small (at least in my country), especially compared to unvaccinated (abt. 30%), that it should be fairly trivial to quarantine them, don't really see an issue here if we are restricting unvaccinated life based on argument about public health.

defaultprimate 5y ago

Incorrect on loads and duration https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19/news/viral-loads-similar-between-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19/news/viral-loads-sim... It makes zero sense for an immunocomprised person to apply selective pressure to the virus that results in several mutations that perfectly evade the vaccines mechanism of action.

ufo 5y ago
The experts interviewed in the article the OP posted all agree that a persistent infection in an imunocompromised individual is one of the leading theories. Maybe even more plausible than a reverse zoonotic event. People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variante of coronavirus. They stay sick for a long time (meaning more viral replication and more opportunities for mutation) and they apply a weak immune response which while not sufficient to wipe out the disease, provides selective pressure that rewards immune evasion. There's a common antivaxxer myth that vaccines promote the creation of new variants and that we would be better off without vaccination. I think it's very important to emphasize that is not the case.
- solmag 5y ago
  > a persistent infection in an imunocompromised individual is one of the most plausible theories > People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variante of coronavirus If it turns out to be the case, should we have HIV / Cancer Patient Passports? After all, these people can be a general danger to public health as they can demonstrably incubate new dangerous strains of diseases, like Omicron.
  - ufo 5y ago
    Of course not! Please don't suggest that I would say such a heartless thing! We're talking about someone who had to be sick for months, probably inside a hospital already. The important thing to do is get everyone vaccinated, including in Africa where there is a tremendous shortage of vaccines. The more the virus spreads, the more chances it has to mutate into new variants. Also, when everyone is vaccinated, the elderly and immunocompromised are less likely to be exposed to the disease; vaccination should be seen first as a public-health policy, not as a means for individual protection. Not to mention that, even though the vaccination is less effective individually for the immunocompromised, they are one of the groups that are at most risk from covid and therefore most benefit from being vaccinated.