7 ms·

Probably a vaccinated human with a breakthrough case, you know, exactly like MRSA.

epgui 5y ago
No, not exactly like MRSA at all. Be careful, methicillin (and generally speaking, antibiotic) resistance are very different, both mechanistically as well as evolutionarily, from vaccine immunity evasion.
- defaultprimate 5y ago
  Please elaborate
  - epgui 5y ago
    This is just introductory-level microbiology and immunology and I don’t have time to give the subject the treatment it deserves. First, as a practical matter, small molecules like antibiotics are really difficult to develop, the repertoire is limited, and toxicity is often a big problem. The possible repertoire of antibodies against a given antigen is astronomical. In the case of antibiotic resistance, you’re dealing with an active colony of bacteria continually reproducing within one host. In vaccine immunity, reproduction is nil or extremely limited within the host (simplifying white lie), and it is mostly at the host-population level that immune evasion evolves over time, so the population dynamics are totally different. Edit: I recommend Lange’s Medical Microbiology and Janeway’s Immunobiology for those who are interested enough in learning more.
    - defaultprimate 5y ago
      >In vaccine immunity, reproduction is nil or extremely limited within the host Not with these vaccines. It's VAED
      - epgui 5y ago
        VAED is not specific to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and is the exception rather than the norm. In fact, VAED typically occurs more often in inactivated vaccines, while in comparison, newer mRNA vaccines offer a promising way to reduce the likelihood of VAED. To the best of my knowledge, though it cannot be ruled out as a possibility, there are no confirmed reports of VAED in humans infected with SARS-CoV-2. You're really splitting hairs and assigning excessive importance on minor details.
        defaultprimate 5y ago
        VAED has occurred repeatedly in mRNA vaccine trials, as well as attempts to develop a coronavirus vaccine because the vaccines provide incomplete protection, in much the same way the current COVID vaccines. It's a primary factor in why they have not made it to market for so long. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40259-021-00495-6 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40259-021-00495-6 https://mvec.mcri.edu.au/references/vaccine-associated-enhanced-disease-vaed/ https://mvec.mcri.edu.au/references/vaccine-associated-enhan... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7901381/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7901381/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/ https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-cent...
        epgui 5y ago
        No, lol. I would strongly suggest you stop talking about things you know nothing about. - The first 3 links have nothing to do with RNA vaccines - The fourth link says "the ability of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to mediate infection enhancement in vivo has never been formally demonstrated", and "the results obtained so far have been rather reassuring", which is in agreement with what I said and in direct contradiction with your point. - The fifth link doesn't suggest in any way that VAED is a concern with mRNA vaccines. In fact it says: "Any vaccine that has been found to cause ADE has stopped being used or, more recently as described below for dengue vaccine, been recommended only for those who will not be affected by ADE. Evidence of ADE has not emerged for COVID-19 vaccines even though concerns have been raised."
ufo 5y ago
Vaccinated individuals have shorter infections and a lower viral load than unvaccinated people, and therefore provide less opportunities to develop new variants. More virus = more chance for new mutations. The more likely theory is someone immunocompromised who stayed sick for a very long time.
- sjg007 5y ago
  Right but why didn't they die quicker if they were IC and so sick?
  - ufo 5y ago
    The theory is that it would be someone that is immunocompromised enough to just hang in there for a long time. It's a numbers game. The more people that get infected, the bigger the chance a rare event like this will happen. This is one reason why vaccine distribution inequity may come back to bite us.
    - sjg007 5y ago
      Still doesn’t make sense… based on the mutation rate, this would have to be someone infected a year or two ago…
      - slenk 5y ago
        I would like to know how you came to the conclusion that this person would have been infected so long - I'd love to see the math. I'm more inclined to believe the experts in this instance.
        sjg007 5y ago
        It's pretty simple. You can estimate the genetic mutation rate from the phylogenetic tree since we've been sampling the distribution of Sars-Cov2 genomes since the original Wuhan strain. If that rate is constant and if the variants all mutate at the same speed that gives you a rough timeline. Omicron has 50 mutations that are not related to other known variants. Delta has 13. We've seen delta for about 1 year right? So it's not a big leap to roughly double that estimate for Omicron.

No, not exactly like MRSA at all. Be careful, methicillin (and generally speaking, antibiotic) resistance are very different, both mechanistically as well as evolutionarily, from vaccine immunity evasion.

defaultprimate 5y ago
Please elaborate
- epgui 5y ago
  This is just introductory-level microbiology and immunology and I don’t have time to give the subject the treatment it deserves. First, as a practical matter, small molecules like antibiotics are really difficult to develop, the repertoire is limited, and toxicity is often a big problem. The possible repertoire of antibodies against a given antigen is astronomical. In the case of antibiotic resistance, you’re dealing with an active colony of bacteria continually reproducing within one host. In vaccine immunity, reproduction is nil or extremely limited within the host (simplifying white lie), and it is mostly at the host-population level that immune evasion evolves over time, so the population dynamics are totally different. Edit: I recommend Lange’s Medical Microbiology and Janeway’s Immunobiology for those who are interested enough in learning more.
  - defaultprimate 5y ago
    >In vaccine immunity, reproduction is nil or extremely limited within the host Not with these vaccines. It's VAED
    - epgui 5y ago
      VAED is not specific to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and is the exception rather than the norm. In fact, VAED typically occurs more often in inactivated vaccines, while in comparison, newer mRNA vaccines offer a promising way to reduce the likelihood of VAED. To the best of my knowledge, though it cannot be ruled out as a possibility, there are no confirmed reports of VAED in humans infected with SARS-CoV-2. You're really splitting hairs and assigning excessive importance on minor details.
      - defaultprimate 5y ago
        VAED has occurred repeatedly in mRNA vaccine trials, as well as attempts to develop a coronavirus vaccine because the vaccines provide incomplete protection, in much the same way the current COVID vaccines. It's a primary factor in why they have not made it to market for so long. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40259-021-00495-6 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40259-021-00495-6 https://mvec.mcri.edu.au/references/vaccine-associated-enhanced-disease-vaed/ https://mvec.mcri.edu.au/references/vaccine-associated-enhan... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7901381/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7901381/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/ https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-cent...
        epgui 5y ago
        No, lol. I would strongly suggest you stop talking about things you know nothing about. - The first 3 links have nothing to do with RNA vaccines - The fourth link says "the ability of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to mediate infection enhancement in vivo has never been formally demonstrated", and "the results obtained so far have been rather reassuring", which is in agreement with what I said and in direct contradiction with your point. - The fifth link doesn't suggest in any way that VAED is a concern with mRNA vaccines. In fact it says: "Any vaccine that has been found to cause ADE has stopped being used or, more recently as described below for dengue vaccine, been recommended only for those who will not be affected by ADE. Evidence of ADE has not emerged for COVID-19 vaccines even though concerns have been raised."

ufo 5y ago

Vaccinated individuals have shorter infections and a lower viral load than unvaccinated people, and therefore provide less opportunities to develop new variants. More virus = more chance for new mutations. The more likely theory is someone immunocompromised who stayed sick for a very long time.

sjg007 5y ago
Right but why didn't they die quicker if they were IC and so sick?
- ufo 5y ago
  The theory is that it would be someone that is immunocompromised enough to just hang in there for a long time. It's a numbers game. The more people that get infected, the bigger the chance a rare event like this will happen. This is one reason why vaccine distribution inequity may come back to bite us.
  - sjg007 5y ago
    Still doesn’t make sense… based on the mutation rate, this would have to be someone infected a year or two ago…
    - slenk 5y ago
      I would like to know how you came to the conclusion that this person would have been infected so long - I'd love to see the math. I'm more inclined to believe the experts in this instance.
      - sjg007 5y ago
        It's pretty simple. You can estimate the genetic mutation rate from the phylogenetic tree since we've been sampling the distribution of Sars-Cov2 genomes since the original Wuhan strain. If that rate is constant and if the variants all mutate at the same speed that gives you a rough timeline. Omicron has 50 mutations that are not related to other known variants. Delta has 13. We've seen delta for about 1 year right? So it's not a big leap to roughly double that estimate for Omicron.