4 ms·

What are you talking about? The vaccines have shown to slow down infection rates and avoid many many hispitalisations and death. So yes, getting vaxxed helps

What are you talking about? The vaccines have shown to slow down infection rates and avoid many many hispitalisations and death. So yes, getting vaxxed helps the graeter good. Good luck to you getting a ICU bed now if you have an accident or a stroke or heart issues.

peteradio 5y ago
I assume you read the comment I'm responding advocating for 100% vaccine rates to drop transmission rates below R0 1. If politicians (aka "Science Advisors") claimed this was the requirement from the git go it would have been an obvious non-starter.
- Arnt 5y ago
  I'm afraid you may have misunderstood. I stated that R would be <1 if vaccination were at 100%, not that the threshold is between 99% and 100%. The virus decides how much is needed, we don't.
Clubber 5y ago
>Good luck to you getting a ICU bed now if you have an accident or a stroke or heart issues. They don't put covid patients in the same ward as other ICU beds for obvious reasons.
- detaro 5y ago
  Where covid patients fill the capacity, there are no "non-covid" wards anymore, because no ICU turns a patient needing it now away to "reserve space" for some potential future patient.
  - Clubber 5y ago
    >Where covid patients fill the capacity, there are no "non-covid" wards anymore Is that happening anywhere now? I mean, got links? I'm generously curious. There's a lot of fear mongering going around. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/09/bogus-oklahoma-ivermectin-story-was-just-too-good-check/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/09/bogus-okl... This has been going on for nearly two years and governments were unwilling or unable to increase capacity in any meaningful way? What a total failure of government / medical system if this is true. The Spanish Flu lasted 3 years, it's not like we don't have a fairly recent example of how long this would probably last.
    - detaro 5y ago
      I realized the wording wasn't good, so just to clarify: "fill the capacity" should be read as "fill up the remaining capacity", not "fill the entire capacity" (that's indeed quite unlikely, simply because of non-covid baseload that will be around). Point remains: a covid patient doesn't get turned away just because a potential car crash victim might need the bed later (and vice-versa), as far as I know there's no reserved non-covid spaces, if there's more covid patients more parts of the ICU get run under covid protocols. Part of the problem with ICU capacity is that is has to be local: for many things, "an hours drive further away than normal" is annoying but solvable, if you need an ICU now it's a problem. Bottom-right here is a district-level map of Germany, showing free capacity: https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/kartenansichten https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/kartenansich... (there's some arguing how precise that data actually is, in both directions - for starters its only updated once a day afaik). Plenty places where e.g. transporting a few people from a car crash gets challenging. There's also pretty drastic statements/protests from the emergency departments and people working there, so yes, this currently sadly is an issue in some regions and the threat of it becoming worse is what finally caused some things to happen (after way to long of German politics wanting to deal with anything but this, despite it being long-predicted by the health authorities - it's extremely frustrating because it's been kind of obvious for weeks that something will have to happen at some point, the earlier the better for everyone). Something that would be interesting data-wise would be deaths during or waiting for transportation - one would expect an increase, but I'm not sure if there even is baseline data available, given rules around who is allowed to pronounce death and how it is recorded.

peteradio 5y ago

I assume you read the comment I'm responding advocating for 100% vaccine rates to drop transmission rates below R0 1. If politicians (aka "Science Advisors") claimed this was the requirement from the git go it would have been an obvious non-starter.

Arnt 5y ago
I'm afraid you may have misunderstood. I stated that R would be <1 if vaccination were at 100%, not that the threshold is between 99% and 100%. The virus decides how much is needed, we don't.

Clubber 5y ago

>Good luck to you getting a ICU bed now if you have an accident or a stroke or heart issues. They don't put covid patients in the same ward as other ICU beds for obvious reasons.

detaro 5y ago
Where covid patients fill the capacity, there are no "non-covid" wards anymore, because no ICU turns a patient needing it now away to "reserve space" for some potential future patient.
- Clubber 5y ago
  >Where covid patients fill the capacity, there are no "non-covid" wards anymore Is that happening anywhere now? I mean, got links? I'm generously curious. There's a lot of fear mongering going around. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/09/bogus-oklahoma-ivermectin-story-was-just-too-good-check/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/09/bogus-okl... This has been going on for nearly two years and governments were unwilling or unable to increase capacity in any meaningful way? What a total failure of government / medical system if this is true. The Spanish Flu lasted 3 years, it's not like we don't have a fairly recent example of how long this would probably last.
  - detaro 5y ago
    I realized the wording wasn't good, so just to clarify: "fill the capacity" should be read as "fill up the remaining capacity", not "fill the entire capacity" (that's indeed quite unlikely, simply because of non-covid baseload that will be around). Point remains: a covid patient doesn't get turned away just because a potential car crash victim might need the bed later (and vice-versa), as far as I know there's no reserved non-covid spaces, if there's more covid patients more parts of the ICU get run under covid protocols. Part of the problem with ICU capacity is that is has to be local: for many things, "an hours drive further away than normal" is annoying but solvable, if you need an ICU now it's a problem. Bottom-right here is a district-level map of Germany, showing free capacity: https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/kartenansichten https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/kartenansich... (there's some arguing how precise that data actually is, in both directions - for starters its only updated once a day afaik). Plenty places where e.g. transporting a few people from a car crash gets challenging. There's also pretty drastic statements/protests from the emergency departments and people working there, so yes, this currently sadly is an issue in some regions and the threat of it becoming worse is what finally caused some things to happen (after way to long of German politics wanting to deal with anything but this, despite it being long-predicted by the health authorities - it's extremely frustrating because it's been kind of obvious for weeks that something will have to happen at some point, the earlier the better for everyone). Something that would be interesting data-wise would be deaths during or waiting for transportation - one would expect an increase, but I'm not sure if there even is baseline data available, given rules around who is allowed to pronounce death and how it is recorded.