On the other hand, that depends on ICUs being able to manage capacity. As the infection rate goes up, the death rate can go up as less of those improved treatm

On the other hand, that depends on ICUs being able to manage capacity. As the infection rate goes up, the death rate can go up as less of those improved treatments are available. Also, as infection rate goes up, you get side-effect problems where non-urgent but necessary treatments (like cancer surgeries) are deferred.