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England for one has open source statistics, and most cases are breakthrough. Alex Berenson has some good analysis of these statistics on his Substack.

• gjulianm 5y ago
  > England for one has open source statistics, and most cases are breakthrough I was thinking why one would say this without mentioning that the vaccination rate is pretty high, so one would expect more breakthrough cases than cases in unvaccinated people. For an extreme example, with 100% vaccination rate, all cases would be breakthrough. I can't find the UK data, so can't answer exactly, but not unexpected at all. > Alex Berenson And this explains why you didn't include it. I didn't know this person, but apparently he's a writer, no education in stats/biology/medicine, from the US, and apparently has made multitude of wrong claims [1]. I wonder if it's that you don't know better or you're making a bad faith argument. 1: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/pandemics-wrongest-man/618475/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/pandemics-...
  • SuoDuanDao 5y ago
    >I was thinking why one would say this without mentioning that the vaccination rate is pretty high Does that really need to be stated? I don't think even the most suspicious among us think the vaccines make a person more likely to catch Covid all else being equal. It seems more a commentary on the narrative (not promulgated by you, but it is out there) that vaccines+distancing will somehow be able to eliminate the novel coronavirus entirely.
    • gjulianm 5y ago
      > It seems more a commentary on the narrative (not promulgated by you, but it is out there) that vaccines+distancing will somehow be able to eliminate the novel coronavirus entirely. To be honest, the only times I've seen this narrative is when people say it's out there and argue against it. I've never seen it seriously supported.
      • SuoDuanDao 5y ago
        That may be an effect of my own filter bubble at play, they do tend to bring the most insane examples of the outside belief structure to the fore. While I haven't seen anyone try to defend it, I have seen people imply they believe it's true. Would you not see this as an example of implicit belief that coronavirus can be eliminated through such measures? https://xkcd.com/2287/ https://xkcd.com/2287/
  • Brybry 5y ago
    And even more than mentioning vaccination rate you also have to consider age distribution. Age is still a significant factor of infection chance and disease severity/outcome. If older people are more likely to be vaccinated than younger people then it skews to more breakthroughs. You can even get a simpson's paradox where people were seeing higher fatalities in overall vaccinated vs unvaccinated but is not true when you controlled for age. And these days one would probably also have to consider time since last vaccination since antibody titer wanes with time which is likely important.
• fabbari 5y ago
  The data for the UK shows a reduction of both hospitalization and deaths in the vaccinated population [0]. [0] https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306 https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306