4 ms·

> Or when unfairness accumulates enough that they had enough — this will happen at some point in China, if they don't tone it down. CCP has built a dissent man

by jeswin 5y ago

> Or when unfairness accumulates enough that they had enough — this will happen at some point in China, if they don't tone it down. CCP has built a dissent management stack all the way from early indoctrination to continuous surveillance to Tiananmen style intervention/massacre if the need ever arises. Dissent will be crushed before it becomes a movement. We're looking at one of the greatest threats to our freedom ever; this time they have nukes, reliable delivery mechanisms and a flourishing economy (which the Soviets lacked).

necovek 5y ago
I have trust in the human race that they will reach a boiling point, and no mechanism can stop that from spiralling out — it's been like that throughout the history. I don't see nukes as of any use (nuking their own dissenting population would surely trigger a civil war: nobody will take that) — nukes are mostly there to deter external invaders (as soon as you use them, that deterring value is gone)! Their economy is mostly based on inequality between the West and the rest (and internally, between poor regions and cities): as they are quickly catching up in salaries and standard of living, it will level off (sure, their domestic market is huge as well and gives them another few years or a decade). I'd instead say that media-manipulation based on scientific exploration of the human mind and behaviour is a bigger threat to our freedom: we won't even know that we've lost it. Still, even in that case, I am sure enough people will see what's going on, and will be able to convince others of the bad sides of it.
- hoseja 5y ago
  Nah, it's clear eusocial species are more fit. Soon comrades in China will engineer a better human, incapable of dissent, working tirelessly for the glory of the Party. This man will rapidly outcompete the silly mono-animal organisms and nation-state slime molds and usher in a great era of eternal harmony.
  - necovek 5y ago
    LOL — thanks for a lighter spin on the discussion!
- baybal2 5y ago
  > as they are quickly catching up in salaries and standard of living, it will level off (sure, their domestic market is huge as well and gives them another few years or a decade). Extremely naive. There are plenty of dirt rich countries, countries way more well off than USA which are still completely totalitarian.
  - necovek 5y ago
    Which countries would that be? I can only see Qatar when compared by median at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe..., but when we switch to ranking by "mean" wealth, even that changes. Basically, none of that convinces me that Chinese economy will continue to see exponential growth as their salaries get closer to Western salaries, and that it will not run into stagnation at that point. This was just a retort to a claim that China will continue to have prospering economy in foreseeable future which allows them to be more formidable and threatening to our freedom. I am totally not an expert though, but country wealth (esp not those countries driven by natural resource exports) is not a good indicator of future economic performance: sure, it allows a country to pivot and prepare for the change better.
    - baybal2 5y ago
      The prosperity of Chinese economy is much at mercy of Japanese, Koreans, and Taiwanese, not Americans, not even remotely, even if USA will go for a financial nuclear option of denying access to its bank system. If you look at median incomes, UAE, and Saudis are of course ones with higher per capital income, but you see plenty of other quite prosperous nations in the club. When oil was above $100, and Russians were swimming in USDs, they were even less proclived to go to the streets. Suharto, Marcos, and a few Latin American dictators equally had their best years when relative prosperity kept populace pliant, even if there was an apparent stagnation. Popular revolts really only happen at the furthest extremes of the spectrum of prosperity, or rapid movement in it. Even just "not dying from hunger" level of prosperity is enough for dictatorships to survive with ease.
      - 5y ago

by jeswin 5y ago

necovek 5y ago

I have trust in the human race that they will reach a boiling point, and no mechanism can stop that from spiralling out — it's been like that throughout the history. I don't see nukes as of any use (nuking their own dissenting population would surely trigger a civil war: nobody will take that) — nukes are mostly there to deter external invaders (as soon as you use them, that deterring value is gone)! Their economy is mostly based on inequality between the West and the rest (and internally, between poor regions and cities): as they are quickly catching up in salaries and standard of living, it will level off (sure, their domestic market is huge as well and gives them another few years or a decade). I'd instead say that media-manipulation based on scientific exploration of the human mind and behaviour is a bigger threat to our freedom: we won't even know that we've lost it. Still, even in that case, I am sure enough people will see what's going on, and will be able to convince others of the bad sides of it.

hoseja 5y ago
Nah, it's clear eusocial species are more fit. Soon comrades in China will engineer a better human, incapable of dissent, working tirelessly for the glory of the Party. This man will rapidly outcompete the silly mono-animal organisms and nation-state slime molds and usher in a great era of eternal harmony.
- necovek 5y ago
  LOL — thanks for a lighter spin on the discussion!
baybal2 5y ago
> as they are quickly catching up in salaries and standard of living, it will level off (sure, their domestic market is huge as well and gives them another few years or a decade). Extremely naive. There are plenty of dirt rich countries, countries way more well off than USA which are still completely totalitarian.
- necovek 5y ago
  Which countries would that be? I can only see Qatar when compared by median at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe..., but when we switch to ranking by "mean" wealth, even that changes. Basically, none of that convinces me that Chinese economy will continue to see exponential growth as their salaries get closer to Western salaries, and that it will not run into stagnation at that point. This was just a retort to a claim that China will continue to have prospering economy in foreseeable future which allows them to be more formidable and threatening to our freedom. I am totally not an expert though, but country wealth (esp not those countries driven by natural resource exports) is not a good indicator of future economic performance: sure, it allows a country to pivot and prepare for the change better.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    The prosperity of Chinese economy is much at mercy of Japanese, Koreans, and Taiwanese, not Americans, not even remotely, even if USA will go for a financial nuclear option of denying access to its bank system. If you look at median incomes, UAE, and Saudis are of course ones with higher per capital income, but you see plenty of other quite prosperous nations in the club. When oil was above $100, and Russians were swimming in USDs, they were even less proclived to go to the streets. Suharto, Marcos, and a few Latin American dictators equally had their best years when relative prosperity kept populace pliant, even if there was an apparent stagnation. Popular revolts really only happen at the furthest extremes of the spectrum of prosperity, or rapid movement in it. Even just "not dying from hunger" level of prosperity is enough for dictatorships to survive with ease.
    - 5y ago