This theory and the conclusion on what the landscape will look like is spot on -- it's so spot on it's already obvious. In fact, it doesn't go far enough. Peopl

This theory and the conclusion on what the landscape will look like is spot on -- it's so spot on it's already obvious. In fact, it doesn't go far enough. People are overlooking another angle -- the evaporation of the moat around the larger providers in terms of infrastructure they provide. Every year it gets easier and easier to run core AWS offerings (ex. S3 or EC2-like services) as long as you don't need 5 9s of availability (I'd argue most businesses actually don't need that and don't have it even if the underlying infra does). Smaller players can run that infra at much smaller scale than AWS with higher relative margins. Software is easier to administer these days (don't say buzzwords like "cloud native" never did anything for you), and the startling thing is that the larger clouds still have a near monopoly on robustness/service choice. Of course I'm lying a bit here -- OVH has managed databases, and there are Managed Service Providers (MSPs) that run in places that are not the major clouds but the point here is that fundamentally technological leverage and hardware prices are actually chipping away at the moats of the large clouds every day. Larger clouds have to move up the value chain, and that is exactly where smaller companies can have an advantage (not in pricing, but in quality). Hetzner has just opened it's first US data center in Ashburn, Virginia -- and IMO was worth using when it was only in Germany. Time to interactive is really important, but almost no one worries about this when it comes to dealing with backends. Deploying your frontend to cloudfront/vercel/any other CDN and leaving your relatively simple backend (what you might use for a simple three tier ruby/django app) is extremely cost effective but requires know-how. Hetzner starting operations in the US is going to introduce new competition in the lower layers of this vertical, and there's absolutely no reason that the Managed Service Providers (MSPs) can't take advantage of this and grow their customer base. I'm trying to start making the know-how portable -- building a cloud that runs on many providers (starting with Hetzner) and I'm calling it Nimbus Web Services[0] with a launch early next year. [0]: https://nimbusws.com https://nimbusws.com