7 ms·

The epidemiological relevance of the Covid-vaccinated population is increasing

43 points by a0-prw 5y ago

HamburgerEmoji 5y ago
I submitted this 21 hours ago, but I'm a member of the shadowbanned HN underclass, so I guess it was hidden from everyone.
mise_en_place 5y ago
By no means am I an expert, but my understanding is that vaccines don’t go far enough. They provide B-Cell immunity, which doesn’t last permanently because newer variants have different antigens. Getting COVID after vaccination seems to be the most robust, because there is both T-Cell and B-Cell activation.
- alevskaya 5y ago
  I used to work in immunology - this is not accurate. We know that e.g. mRNA vaccines elicit quite a good T-cell immune response. e.g. for one of many studies looking at T-cell responses to the recent sars-cov-2 vaccines: https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3 https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3
  - sjwalter 5y ago
    Why does vaccine-based immunity lack the durability of natural immunity?
    - rmk 5y ago
      Is this true?
    - disambiguation 5y ago
      Durability is an abstract quality, it could mean long lasting, or effective against variants, or some other resistance qualities.. IMO the science on natural immunity has been lacking, so it's hard to say with certainty. one important thing we do know is that mRNA vaccines only generate an s-protein (the spike) whereas the full virus also includes an n-protein (the nucleocapsid). So vaccine immunity one trains against one protein whereas natural infections may train against both. This could be the basis for comprehensive immunity.. but I'll reiterate, it depends on scientific confirmation.
tamaharbor 5y ago
The endless coronavirus restrictions will end when WE decide it ends.
eyeball 5y ago
This is never going to end. I hope a giant meteor obliterated the earth.
- Flankk 5y ago
  Ask and you shall receive. https://nypost.com/2021/11/30/concerning-asteroid-will-break-into-earths-orbit-in-a-week-nasa/ https://nypost.com/2021/11/30/concerning-asteroid-will-break...
  - 1cvmask 5y ago
    Isn’t life all about timing.
trothamel 5y ago
Potentially relevant: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/post-vaccination-covid/620140/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/post-vac... It's The Atlantic talking about how post-vaccination COVID is a very different disease compared to how it presents in unvaccinated people.
pensatoio 5y ago
And the cherry on top, excess mortality due to heavy-handed mitigations and vaccine-related reactions. This will never end unless we learn to live with it.
tasogare 5y ago
Wow, a barely tested technology that hasn't never been successfully used in the last decades it was developed, targeting a new virus isn't living up to its promise, how surprising! It's time for governments to implement science-based policies, severe links with snake oil vendors and stop discriminating people on the basis of their (un)willingly participation to an ineffective drug trial.
PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
This letter to the Lancet is interesting and worthy of being on HN. But the title being used ("A Pandemic of the Vaccinated") is misleading. The letter's point is that transmission of the virus by the vaccinated may be more significant than was expected or believed, and that it may be incorrect to ignore the vaccinated when considering public health measures. Nothing more or less.
- Izkata 5y ago
  It's a counter to the catchphrase "pandemic of the unvaccinated" that politicians have been using to put the blame on keeping restrictions on people who haven't gotten vaccinated.
  - ManuelKiessling 5y ago
    That doesn’t make it correct or fitting.
  - johnchristopher 5y ago
    Not later than this morning I heard a ICU doctor using the same wording to describe his daily job so clearly this sentence has different meanings depending on who utters it to who and when.
- dang 5y ago
  We've replaced it with the article title now. "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
peppermint_tea 5y ago
to me, it was clear from the start that the vaccine was not PREVENTING the transmission of the virus, they were talking about a REDUCED transmission... but politicians(leading by polls) we were so in the rush(arguably legitimately) to restore the economy that we came up with paperwork for the vaccinated as a solution (which I fill monthly to travel and I present to eat chineese food). And some citizen were so in the rush(arguably legitimately) to go back to "normal" that they just let go of the other known working measures like masks and social distancing(take the tube in London to see what I mean) Even If I am fully vaccinated, I do not wish to send someone who have decided not to take the vaccine to the ER. Even if it was in my opinion a bad decision. I do not mind wearing a mask while we collect more data to have a more efficient response.
alanfranz 5y ago
Interesting, but misleading beyond the title. One part that deserves attention about the Israel outbreak: "Fourteen fully vaccinated patients became severely ill or died, the two unvaccinated patients developed mild disease". This seems to imply an adverse effect of the vaccine. On the contrary, what happened is that patients were either older or had comorbidities - check https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2100822 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E... and https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/table/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2100822.t1?fmt=ahah&fullscreen=true https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/table/10.2807/1560-... The last phrase of the article, though, has its merits: "It appears to be grossly negligent to ignore the vaccinated population as a possible and relevant source of transmission when deciding about public health control measures." This is true. New measures like the new italian "super green pass" exclude unvaccinated from certain activities (cafes, theaters, cinemas) even when they can exhibit a negative Covid-19 test. This makes no sense; the latter group has fewer chances of transmitting the disease than the former. On the contrary, it could make sense to have an "admission priority" in hospital wards when they're full, depending on whether you're vaccinated or not; because, hospitalization-wise, that's totally relevant. No vaccine would imply lower priority when requiring access to medical wards.
- dataflow 5y ago
  > This makes no sense; the latter group has fewer chances of transmitting the disease than the former. I think you're only looking at transmission of a pre-existing infection during the event. You don't seem to be looking at transmission that happens later but that was caused by attending the event (and getting the virus), nor do you appear to be looking at the number of people who get the disease directly at the event. Shouldn't those be factored in as well?
  - AstralStorm 5y ago
    The big thing about the vaccine is that it vastly reduces the chance that infection converts to an illness. For that to happen, you need to be immune compromised in some way or get hit with an immune avoiding variant. It only slightly shortens time for transmitting the virus. Hence silent infected people who are vaccinated might not even know they're carriers. Hence everyone should still be wearing masks to limit the spread.
PraetorianGourd 5y ago
I mean this question with all respect. For those of you who error towards caution with COVID, do you prefer the world as it is under coronavirus restrictions? Again I am asking this with sincerity, if we could blink away COVID but keep the world as it is (remote work, limited travel, acceptable reason for isolation etc.) would you prefer that world? I hate the world COVID has created . I hate seeing everything through the lens of infection risk. I hate sacrificing childhood to save elderly. I hate masks. I hate that my glasses fog up. I hate working out wearing a mask. I hate that I couldn’t see my father as he died in an ER. I hate that I can’t enjoy a simple meal with friends. I hate being talked down to. I hate remote meetings. I hate the little condoms they put on remotes in hotel rooms. I hate taking my cat to the vet and waiting in the car. I hate paying some poor person a pittance to deliver my meals. I hate that students have to stay at home. I hate that I love alcohol. I hate that I am judged for hating these things. I hate that I have to wear a mask outside, despite it being utterly pointless, due to social pressure. I hate that I’ve ideated suicide more in the past year than the previous 34 combined. I hate this pandemic. And fuck you if you make me feel like I’m selfish for hating this pandemic
- csdvrx 5y ago
  > I hate that I’ve ideated suicide more in the past year than the previous 34 combined. Ouch. What about a less "final" idea, like moving to the midwest or Texas? Here we mostly don't care about such things, so it's business as usual!
  - PraetorianGourd 5y ago
    I’ve considered it. I’m not in any way thinking of moving from ideation to realization. But ideation is scary enough
    - sysOpOpPERAND 5y ago
      first of all, i agree. it sucks. it wiped out my business, i have asthma and it feels like i can't breath wearing a mask. i live in washington state. my advice is don't move to washington state if you don't like covid-19 extraness. you would not like it here. we still have a 5-10 person limit at many stores. basically tons of places look like people are waiting in line for a rock concert. as much as i love the mountains and the coffee i am thinking about moving to a less over the top state. it's rough, hang in there and maybe try and move to another state if it keeps clawing at your mental health.
a0-prw 5y ago
In Denmark, a law was recently enacted allowing (not requiring) employers to demand a "coronapas" (health passport). Many of the largest municipalities have availed themselves of this possibility (including my employer). You have a valid coronapas if you've been vaccinated, had a negative PCR test in the last 72 hours, or had a negative antigene test in the last 48 hours, or have recovered from covid in the last 6 months. The obvious problem (and the reason why cases are exploding) is that vaccinated people are spreading the virus because most don't bother to get tested (why should they? People were told that the vaccine would defeat the pandemic and many still believe this). Unvaccinated, otoh, are getting regularly tested and must self-isolate if they test positive. Mass vaccination against an airborne virus is not the best way to defeat the pandemic. Regular testing and effective contact tracing is. Vaccination should have been reserved for the high-risk groups (although even triple-vaccinated elderly people are dying, as are those with comorbidities).
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  But when unvaccinated are shown to have more infection rates, because of constant testing, than vaccinated the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” fear scenario is reinforced.
  - a0-prw 5y ago
    Yes. And that might suit a (hypothetical) hidden agenda. I just don't think the authorities are smart or cynical enough to foresee and plan something like that (in Denmark) IMO, the responses to the virus have been driven by media hysteria and politicians doing what they think will make them look good.
    - sleepysysadmin 5y ago
      >Yes. And that might suit a (hypothetical) hidden agenda. I just don't think the authorities are smart or cynical enough to foresee and plan something like that (in Denmark) What is hidden or hypothetical about it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset The first book came out in 2010 post financial crisis. The whole design is about fighting against STEM and producing an economy in which creativity is rewarded. The politicians took that are twisted it to their needs. https://imgur.com/C9bqUfh https://imgur.com/C9bqUfh Zoom in and read exactly what they are still working on. Bonus points if you see what isn't labelled on that graph. >IMO, the responses to the virus have been driven by media hysteria and politicians doing what they think will make them look good. It's really just the next step. In which if you say that producing all these infographics and having a large cohort of support clearly indicates intention. It's appropriate for elected officials to have these plans. There is no 'conspiracy' but what do you think about the possibility that these folks were driving the public to hysteria in order to justify these plans?

43 points by a0-prw 5y ago

I submitted this 21 hours ago, but I'm a member of the shadowbanned HN underclass, so I guess it was hidden from everyone.

mise_en_place 5y ago

By no means am I an expert, but my understanding is that vaccines don’t go far enough. They provide B-Cell immunity, which doesn’t last permanently because newer variants have different antigens. Getting COVID after vaccination seems to be the most robust, because there is both T-Cell and B-Cell activation.

alevskaya 5y ago
I used to work in immunology - this is not accurate. We know that e.g. mRNA vaccines elicit quite a good T-cell immune response. e.g. for one of many studies looking at T-cell responses to the recent sars-cov-2 vaccines: https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3 https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3
- sjwalter 5y ago
  Why does vaccine-based immunity lack the durability of natural immunity?
  - rmk 5y ago
    Is this true?
  - disambiguation 5y ago
    Durability is an abstract quality, it could mean long lasting, or effective against variants, or some other resistance qualities.. IMO the science on natural immunity has been lacking, so it's hard to say with certainty. one important thing we do know is that mRNA vaccines only generate an s-protein (the spike) whereas the full virus also includes an n-protein (the nucleocapsid). So vaccine immunity one trains against one protein whereas natural infections may train against both. This could be the basis for comprehensive immunity.. but I'll reiterate, it depends on scientific confirmation.

tamaharbor 5y ago

The endless coronavirus restrictions will end when WE decide it ends.

eyeball 5y ago

This is never going to end. I hope a giant meteor obliterated the earth.

Flankk 5y ago
Ask and you shall receive. https://nypost.com/2021/11/30/concerning-asteroid-will-break-into-earths-orbit-in-a-week-nasa/ https://nypost.com/2021/11/30/concerning-asteroid-will-break...
- 1cvmask 5y ago
  Isn’t life all about timing.

trothamel 5y ago

Potentially relevant: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/post-vaccination-covid/620140/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/post-vac... It's The Atlantic talking about how post-vaccination COVID is a very different disease compared to how it presents in unvaccinated people.

pensatoio 5y ago

And the cherry on top, excess mortality due to heavy-handed mitigations and vaccine-related reactions. This will never end unless we learn to live with it.

tasogare 5y ago

Wow, a barely tested technology that hasn't never been successfully used in the last decades it was developed, targeting a new virus isn't living up to its promise, how surprising! It's time for governments to implement science-based policies, severe links with snake oil vendors and stop discriminating people on the basis of their (un)willingly participation to an ineffective drug trial.

PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago

This letter to the Lancet is interesting and worthy of being on HN. But the title being used ("A Pandemic of the Vaccinated") is misleading. The letter's point is that transmission of the virus by the vaccinated may be more significant than was expected or believed, and that it may be incorrect to ignore the vaccinated when considering public health measures. Nothing more or less.

Izkata 5y ago
It's a counter to the catchphrase "pandemic of the unvaccinated" that politicians have been using to put the blame on keeping restrictions on people who haven't gotten vaccinated.
- ManuelKiessling 5y ago
  That doesn’t make it correct or fitting.
- johnchristopher 5y ago
  Not later than this morning I heard a ICU doctor using the same wording to describe his daily job so clearly this sentence has different meanings depending on who utters it to who and when.
dang 5y ago
We've replaced it with the article title now. "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

peppermint_tea 5y ago

to me, it was clear from the start that the vaccine was not PREVENTING the transmission of the virus, they were talking about a REDUCED transmission... but politicians(leading by polls) we were so in the rush(arguably legitimately) to restore the economy that we came up with paperwork for the vaccinated as a solution (which I fill monthly to travel and I present to eat chineese food). And some citizen were so in the rush(arguably legitimately) to go back to "normal" that they just let go of the other known working measures like masks and social distancing(take the tube in London to see what I mean) Even If I am fully vaccinated, I do not wish to send someone who have decided not to take the vaccine to the ER. Even if it was in my opinion a bad decision. I do not mind wearing a mask while we collect more data to have a more efficient response.

alanfranz 5y ago

Interesting, but misleading beyond the title. One part that deserves attention about the Israel outbreak: "Fourteen fully vaccinated patients became severely ill or died, the two unvaccinated patients developed mild disease". This seems to imply an adverse effect of the vaccine. On the contrary, what happened is that patients were either older or had comorbidities - check https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2100822 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E... and https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/table/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2100822.t1?fmt=ahah&fullscreen=true https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/table/10.2807/1560-... The last phrase of the article, though, has its merits: "It appears to be grossly negligent to ignore the vaccinated population as a possible and relevant source of transmission when deciding about public health control measures." This is true. New measures like the new italian "super green pass" exclude unvaccinated from certain activities (cafes, theaters, cinemas) even when they can exhibit a negative Covid-19 test. This makes no sense; the latter group has fewer chances of transmitting the disease than the former. On the contrary, it could make sense to have an "admission priority" in hospital wards when they're full, depending on whether you're vaccinated or not; because, hospitalization-wise, that's totally relevant. No vaccine would imply lower priority when requiring access to medical wards.

dataflow 5y ago
> This makes no sense; the latter group has fewer chances of transmitting the disease than the former. I think you're only looking at transmission of a pre-existing infection during the event. You don't seem to be looking at transmission that happens later but that was caused by attending the event (and getting the virus), nor do you appear to be looking at the number of people who get the disease directly at the event. Shouldn't those be factored in as well?
- AstralStorm 5y ago
  The big thing about the vaccine is that it vastly reduces the chance that infection converts to an illness. For that to happen, you need to be immune compromised in some way or get hit with an immune avoiding variant. It only slightly shortens time for transmitting the virus. Hence silent infected people who are vaccinated might not even know they're carriers. Hence everyone should still be wearing masks to limit the spread.

PraetorianGourd 5y ago

I mean this question with all respect. For those of you who error towards caution with COVID, do you prefer the world as it is under coronavirus restrictions? Again I am asking this with sincerity, if we could blink away COVID but keep the world as it is (remote work, limited travel, acceptable reason for isolation etc.) would you prefer that world? I hate the world COVID has created . I hate seeing everything through the lens of infection risk. I hate sacrificing childhood to save elderly. I hate masks. I hate that my glasses fog up. I hate working out wearing a mask. I hate that I couldn’t see my father as he died in an ER. I hate that I can’t enjoy a simple meal with friends. I hate being talked down to. I hate remote meetings. I hate the little condoms they put on remotes in hotel rooms. I hate taking my cat to the vet and waiting in the car. I hate paying some poor person a pittance to deliver my meals. I hate that students have to stay at home. I hate that I love alcohol. I hate that I am judged for hating these things. I hate that I have to wear a mask outside, despite it being utterly pointless, due to social pressure. I hate that I’ve ideated suicide more in the past year than the previous 34 combined. I hate this pandemic. And fuck you if you make me feel like I’m selfish for hating this pandemic

csdvrx 5y ago
> I hate that I’ve ideated suicide more in the past year than the previous 34 combined. Ouch. What about a less "final" idea, like moving to the midwest or Texas? Here we mostly don't care about such things, so it's business as usual!
- PraetorianGourd 5y ago
  I’ve considered it. I’m not in any way thinking of moving from ideation to realization. But ideation is scary enough
  - sysOpOpPERAND 5y ago
    first of all, i agree. it sucks. it wiped out my business, i have asthma and it feels like i can't breath wearing a mask. i live in washington state. my advice is don't move to washington state if you don't like covid-19 extraness. you would not like it here. we still have a 5-10 person limit at many stores. basically tons of places look like people are waiting in line for a rock concert. as much as i love the mountains and the coffee i am thinking about moving to a less over the top state. it's rough, hang in there and maybe try and move to another state if it keeps clawing at your mental health.

a0-prw 5y ago

In Denmark, a law was recently enacted allowing (not requiring) employers to demand a "coronapas" (health passport). Many of the largest municipalities have availed themselves of this possibility (including my employer). You have a valid coronapas if you've been vaccinated, had a negative PCR test in the last 72 hours, or had a negative antigene test in the last 48 hours, or have recovered from covid in the last 6 months. The obvious problem (and the reason why cases are exploding) is that vaccinated people are spreading the virus because most don't bother to get tested (why should they? People were told that the vaccine would defeat the pandemic and many still believe this). Unvaccinated, otoh, are getting regularly tested and must self-isolate if they test positive. Mass vaccination against an airborne virus is not the best way to defeat the pandemic. Regular testing and effective contact tracing is. Vaccination should have been reserved for the high-risk groups (although even triple-vaccinated elderly people are dying, as are those with comorbidities).

bigodbiel 5y ago
But when unvaccinated are shown to have more infection rates, because of constant testing, than vaccinated the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” fear scenario is reinforced.
- a0-prw 5y ago
  Yes. And that might suit a (hypothetical) hidden agenda. I just don't think the authorities are smart or cynical enough to foresee and plan something like that (in Denmark) IMO, the responses to the virus have been driven by media hysteria and politicians doing what they think will make them look good.
  - sleepysysadmin 5y ago
    >Yes. And that might suit a (hypothetical) hidden agenda. I just don't think the authorities are smart or cynical enough to foresee and plan something like that (in Denmark) What is hidden or hypothetical about it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset The first book came out in 2010 post financial crisis. The whole design is about fighting against STEM and producing an economy in which creativity is rewarded. The politicians took that are twisted it to their needs. https://imgur.com/C9bqUfh https://imgur.com/C9bqUfh Zoom in and read exactly what they are still working on. Bonus points if you see what isn't labelled on that graph. >IMO, the responses to the virus have been driven by media hysteria and politicians doing what they think will make them look good. It's really just the next step. In which if you say that producing all these infographics and having a large cohort of support clearly indicates intention. It's appropriate for elected officials to have these plans. There is no 'conspiracy' but what do you think about the possibility that these folks were driving the public to hysteria in order to justify these plans?