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Does Hacker News think the singularity will happen?

togaen 5y ago
No.
- notomorrow 5y ago
  why not?
andersco 5y ago
I am no AI scientist, but as a humble software engineer it seems to me that machine consciousness is not viable within a binary computer paradigm. However, if quantum computing, which much more closely resembles the analog nature of neurons firing in the human brain, becomes commercially viable, then, yes, the singularity just might be achieved.
imwillofficial 5y ago
Can I freeze my head and be robot Nixon in the future? If so I’m all onboard
Flankk 5y ago
People are terrible at predicting the future. The human brain is not using magic to operate. The 100 billion neurons in the human brain are a lot but it's not an impossible number. Right now we're trying to craft intelligence as a virtual machine. It would make sense if specialized hardware were developed, like a CPU that uses something analogous to a neural net. I think it will take at least 40 years to get anywhere close to artificial general intelligence. The runaway effect seems unlikely. If I'm wrong I suppose the AI can chuckle as it reads this and finishes exterminating the last humans.
wanderer_ 5y ago
Cynical opinion: Not really. We constantly see greatly inflated expectations of technological developments ("I bet in 2000 we'll have rocket cars!") that almost never come to fruition. The 'singularity' is mostly due to people wanting to have an official-sounding word to go with sci-fi. Personal belief: It takes a God to create intelligence. In the same way I think it unreasonable that consciousness arose out of nothingness, or a microbe, it seems unlikely to me that we will be able to do the same - especially with what infinitesimal knowledge we really have of the human brain.
- wanderer_ 5y ago
  Of course, that's only with the interpretation of the word 'singularity' that is the creation of intelligence. According to Wikipedia, the singularity is "The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization." Again no, because the use of the word "singularity" implies a sudden change. History shows that that's not really how most technologies work. It's generally a slow rise to adoption and integration. But in another sense you could say that Wikipedia's Singularity has already happened. The Internet and things like smartphones have been proven to chemically alter our brains, and they are here stay - for better or for worse. We are at the point now that we cannot stop their connection to our society, and indeed it seems right now that we can't live without them. For better or for worse, they aren't going anywhere.
muzani 5y ago
The singularity was us extrapolating technological progress. If you did the same during the agricultural revolution, we'd probably have anticipated a singularity at 0 AD. There's something happening but it's very likely we'll hit a wall the same way Moore's Law is facing. We also have exponential growth going on in startups/business but it's starting to hit a wall too. The early startups like shopping, logistics, digital infra advances, shared knowledge were amazing. But we're hitting a wall in unsolved business problems too.
temp234 5y ago
Step back from the content of the claim and think about the form. It's just another millenarian fantasy, flavored for tech kids this time. Not taking millenarian claims literally is a historically safe bet.
- riptidevancejoy 5y ago
  reality is often so dissapointning.

No.

notomorrow 5y ago
why not?

I am no AI scientist, but as a humble software engineer it seems to me that machine consciousness is not viable within a binary computer paradigm. However, if quantum computing, which much more closely resembles the analog nature of neurons firing in the human brain, becomes commercially viable, then, yes, the singularity just might be achieved.

imwillofficial 5y ago

Can I freeze my head and be robot Nixon in the future? If so I’m all onboard

Flankk 5y ago

People are terrible at predicting the future. The human brain is not using magic to operate. The 100 billion neurons in the human brain are a lot but it's not an impossible number. Right now we're trying to craft intelligence as a virtual machine. It would make sense if specialized hardware were developed, like a CPU that uses something analogous to a neural net. I think it will take at least 40 years to get anywhere close to artificial general intelligence. The runaway effect seems unlikely. If I'm wrong I suppose the AI can chuckle as it reads this and finishes exterminating the last humans.

wanderer_ 5y ago

Cynical opinion: Not really. We constantly see greatly inflated expectations of technological developments ("I bet in 2000 we'll have rocket cars!") that almost never come to fruition. The 'singularity' is mostly due to people wanting to have an official-sounding word to go with sci-fi. Personal belief: It takes a God to create intelligence. In the same way I think it unreasonable that consciousness arose out of nothingness, or a microbe, it seems unlikely to me that we will be able to do the same - especially with what infinitesimal knowledge we really have of the human brain.

wanderer_ 5y ago
Of course, that's only with the interpretation of the word 'singularity' that is the creation of intelligence. According to Wikipedia, the singularity is "The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization." Again no, because the use of the word "singularity" implies a sudden change. History shows that that's not really how most technologies work. It's generally a slow rise to adoption and integration. But in another sense you could say that Wikipedia's Singularity has already happened. The Internet and things like smartphones have been proven to chemically alter our brains, and they are here stay - for better or for worse. We are at the point now that we cannot stop their connection to our society, and indeed it seems right now that we can't live without them. For better or for worse, they aren't going anywhere.

muzani 5y ago

The singularity was us extrapolating technological progress. If you did the same during the agricultural revolution, we'd probably have anticipated a singularity at 0 AD. There's something happening but it's very likely we'll hit a wall the same way Moore's Law is facing. We also have exponential growth going on in startups/business but it's starting to hit a wall too. The early startups like shopping, logistics, digital infra advances, shared knowledge were amazing. But we're hitting a wall in unsolved business problems too.

temp234 5y ago

Step back from the content of the claim and think about the form. It's just another millenarian fantasy, flavored for tech kids this time. Not taking millenarian claims literally is a historically safe bet.

riptidevancejoy 5y ago
reality is often so dissapointning.