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> I'm not an expert, but my intuition... Do you see how this might not be received well? You admit to not being an expert and not basing your opinion on eviden

by seoaeu 5y ago

> I'm not an expert, but my intuition... Do you see how this might not be received well? You admit to not being an expert and not basing your opinion on evidence, and then jump in with supporting something anyway. A quick google search picks up a bunch of results suggesting that private prisons are in fact meaningfully worse.

mechanical_bear 5y ago
You have described the majority of internet commenting, but even here on HN where experts in one field opine on others.
ALittleLight 5y ago
To me this comes across as you having an opposition to private prisons and therefore a compulsion to insist that others who don't share your opinions not contradict them. Are you an expert in prisons (and a "quick google search" doesn't count)? If not, why is it okay for you to share opinion as if it were some known fact but not okay for me to share mine? Speaking of quick Google searches though, lets do one. My top three results are: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-create-more-humane-private-prisons https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-... >But private prisons have turned out to be neither better nor cheaper. They have about the same recidivism rates as their government-run counterparts — nearly 40 percent. And the Government Accountability Office has concluded time and again that there is simply no evidence that private prisons are more cost-effective than public prisons. Which I sum up as: recidivism is similar between public and private prisons. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/recidivism-analysis-public-and-private-state-prison-releases https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/recidivi... >Results of multivariate statistical analyses indicated no significant differences in recidivism rates were discovered for adult males and youthful male offenders released from private versus public prisons, which is consistent with previous research on Florida offenders I take that as meaning recidivism is similar. https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2017/may/5/report-says-private-prison-companies-increase-recidivism/ https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2017/may/5/report-says-... >Several studies have found that incarceration in private prisons increases the risk of recidivism by almost 20 percent. [See: PLN, Feb. 2014, p.14; Dec. 2009, p.11]. Other research has determined that violence in private prisons is significantly higher than in government-run facilities, often due to understaffing. Lower numbers of staff in private facilities, of course, increases the profit margin for private prison operators. I take that as comparisons are complicated by confounding factors (e.g. private prisons more likely to be in areas where visitation is difficult and visitation is a predictor of violence in prison which is a predictor of recidivism). In part because of the confounding factors it is hard to exactly say and studies show different things as regards recidivism. I hope you can see why your comment might not be received well. You make it seem like there is some consensus on a matter that is actually debated. Further, you conflate the current reality, where private prisons have misaligned incentives, with what I'm proposing, which is aligning their incentives with society. If private prisons now were substantially worse than public prisons, and I haven't seen any evidence to that point, then that would be an argument in favor of aligning their incentives, not against it. The pattern of our conversation is: I have an idea which I share as a casual comment on a forum. You have a vague reference to "experts" who resoundingly disagree with my idea. Only, you can't cite those experts and when I follow your recommended google search I discover that the experts do no such thing.
- seoaeu 5y ago
  Private prisons aren't some abstract thought experiment about how tuning incentives can produce lower recidivism rates. They are real human institutions that inflict cruelty on a daily basis. Here is the ACLU saying to get rid of them [1]. Plenty of other groups agree [2][3][4]. They clearly wouldn't want that unless they felt private prisons were worse than publicly run ones, a direct contradiction of your original claim. [1]: https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-justice/mass-incarceration/private-prisons https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-justice/mass-incarceration... [2]: https://www.justiceeducationproject.org/post/opinion-why-private-prisons-should-be-abolished https://www.justiceeducationproject.org/post/opinion-why-pri... [3]: https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/private-prisons-united-states/ https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/private-priso... [4]: http://wesleyanargus.com/2018/02/02/the-problem-with-private-prisons http://wesleyanargus.com/2018/02/02/the-problem-with-private...
  - ALittleLight 5y ago
    First, I want to call attention to the fact that when I provide sources mine are academics and government agencies studying a problem disinterestedly with facts, statistics, and published analyses. Your sources are partisan activist organizations expressing opinions and an opinion letter to a college newspaper. None of these sources even attempt to contradict I wrote and linked to sources to support. When I use sources I excerpt the source and explain what I think it means. You do not do this but instead drop a few related opinion pieces and leave figuring out how they are supposed to relate to the topic at hand to me. Problem is, I don't think these are especially relevant to what we are discussing. As I wrote before comparing recidivism, and even cost, between private and public prisons is difficult because private prisons tend to house different populations of prisoners and tend to be located in different locales. When scholars to try to control for variables they find mixed results ranging from private prisons decrease recidivism to have no effect to increase recidivism. The balance, from my short investigation, seems to suggest "No effect". Nothing in what you've linked refutes that or gives me any reason to reconsider. Nothing in what you've linked or what you've written makes the case that private prisons are inherently bad either. I do not understand what point you are attempting to make. I have shared my opinion on private prisons - that we need to align their incentives with society and prisoners. You have said I shouldn't share my opinion because it disagrees with experts - but you don't link to any such experts and there doesn't seem to be any expert consensus on the topic. One more contrast between you and I in this thread - when I am offering an opinion based on my own thinking I provide an explicit caveat to that effect. You, on the other hand, misleadingly bolster your pronouncements by suggesting that they are the informed consensus of experts and "people who've thought about this for a long time."

by seoaeu 5y ago

mechanical_bear 5y ago

You have described the majority of internet commenting, but even here on HN where experts in one field opine on others.

ALittleLight 5y ago

To me this comes across as you having an opposition to private prisons and therefore a compulsion to insist that others who don't share your opinions not contradict them. Are you an expert in prisons (and a "quick google search" doesn't count)? If not, why is it okay for you to share opinion as if it were some known fact but not okay for me to share mine? Speaking of quick Google searches though, lets do one. My top three results are: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-create-more-humane-private-prisons https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-... >But private prisons have turned out to be neither better nor cheaper. They have about the same recidivism rates as their government-run counterparts — nearly 40 percent. And the Government Accountability Office has concluded time and again that there is simply no evidence that private prisons are more cost-effective than public prisons. Which I sum up as: recidivism is similar between public and private prisons. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/recidivism-analysis-public-and-private-state-prison-releases https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/recidivi... >Results of multivariate statistical analyses indicated no significant differences in recidivism rates were discovered for adult males and youthful male offenders released from private versus public prisons, which is consistent with previous research on Florida offenders I take that as meaning recidivism is similar. https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2017/may/5/report-says-private-prison-companies-increase-recidivism/ https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2017/may/5/report-says-... >Several studies have found that incarceration in private prisons increases the risk of recidivism by almost 20 percent. [See: PLN, Feb. 2014, p.14; Dec. 2009, p.11]. Other research has determined that violence in private prisons is significantly higher than in government-run facilities, often due to understaffing. Lower numbers of staff in private facilities, of course, increases the profit margin for private prison operators. I take that as comparisons are complicated by confounding factors (e.g. private prisons more likely to be in areas where visitation is difficult and visitation is a predictor of violence in prison which is a predictor of recidivism). In part because of the confounding factors it is hard to exactly say and studies show different things as regards recidivism. I hope you can see why your comment might not be received well. You make it seem like there is some consensus on a matter that is actually debated. Further, you conflate the current reality, where private prisons have misaligned incentives, with what I'm proposing, which is aligning their incentives with society. If private prisons now were substantially worse than public prisons, and I haven't seen any evidence to that point, then that would be an argument in favor of aligning their incentives, not against it. The pattern of our conversation is: I have an idea which I share as a casual comment on a forum. You have a vague reference to "experts" who resoundingly disagree with my idea. Only, you can't cite those experts and when I follow your recommended google search I discover that the experts do no such thing.

seoaeu 5y ago
Private prisons aren't some abstract thought experiment about how tuning incentives can produce lower recidivism rates. They are real human institutions that inflict cruelty on a daily basis. Here is the ACLU saying to get rid of them [1]. Plenty of other groups agree [2][3][4]. They clearly wouldn't want that unless they felt private prisons were worse than publicly run ones, a direct contradiction of your original claim. [1]: https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-justice/mass-incarceration/private-prisons https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-justice/mass-incarceration... [2]: https://www.justiceeducationproject.org/post/opinion-why-private-prisons-should-be-abolished https://www.justiceeducationproject.org/post/opinion-why-pri... [3]: https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/private-prisons-united-states/ https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/private-priso... [4]: http://wesleyanargus.com/2018/02/02/the-problem-with-private-prisons http://wesleyanargus.com/2018/02/02/the-problem-with-private...
- ALittleLight 5y ago
  First, I want to call attention to the fact that when I provide sources mine are academics and government agencies studying a problem disinterestedly with facts, statistics, and published analyses. Your sources are partisan activist organizations expressing opinions and an opinion letter to a college newspaper. None of these sources even attempt to contradict I wrote and linked to sources to support. When I use sources I excerpt the source and explain what I think it means. You do not do this but instead drop a few related opinion pieces and leave figuring out how they are supposed to relate to the topic at hand to me. Problem is, I don't think these are especially relevant to what we are discussing. As I wrote before comparing recidivism, and even cost, between private and public prisons is difficult because private prisons tend to house different populations of prisoners and tend to be located in different locales. When scholars to try to control for variables they find mixed results ranging from private prisons decrease recidivism to have no effect to increase recidivism. The balance, from my short investigation, seems to suggest "No effect". Nothing in what you've linked refutes that or gives me any reason to reconsider. Nothing in what you've linked or what you've written makes the case that private prisons are inherently bad either. I do not understand what point you are attempting to make. I have shared my opinion on private prisons - that we need to align their incentives with society and prisoners. You have said I shouldn't share my opinion because it disagrees with experts - but you don't link to any such experts and there doesn't seem to be any expert consensus on the topic. One more contrast between you and I in this thread - when I am offering an opinion based on my own thinking I provide an explicit caveat to that effect. You, on the other hand, misleadingly bolster your pronouncements by suggesting that they are the informed consensus of experts and "people who've thought about this for a long time."