I combined two draft blog posts and wrote an intro to give some context to why people may see Twitter as not having lived up enough. It’s going to be very long.

I combined two draft blog posts and wrote an intro to give some context to why people may see Twitter as not having lived up enough. It’s going to be very long. Heh. No worries if it isn’t read: ——— Many growth/tech stocks are off by 10-40% from higher peaks or averages since the market went bananas in April & May 2020. Almost all growth/tech stocks are off by over 10% from late Oct or mid Nov. Twitter as you stated with its run rate, will top $5B rev in 2021. The stock price opened at $45.5, $36.5B market cap. Twitter is off ~30% from most of 2021. Which is $65/share and a $52B market cap. *Comparisons*: - Pinterest market cap is ~25% less. Not well monetized so far. ~$2.5B rev in 2021. - Snap's market cap is more than double. Rev could hit $4B for 2021. So ~22% less. - LinkedIn was acquired by Microsoft in 2016. Announced in June, completed December 2016. It was trading at a $17.5B market cap before acquisition. Rev for 2016 was $3.7B. This year the run rate has topped $10B. 2021 rev will top $11.5B. - For context, Twitter was worth $13B in June 2016 with $2.5B rev for 2016. - Github was bought for $7.5B in stock. Announced and completed in June and Oct 2018. Microsoft shares were $99 in June 2018. They opened at $335 today. Those $7.5B acquisition shares are worth $25.5B today. - Gitlab, a partial competitor to Github, closed its 1st public day on Oct 14, 2021 above $15B. It's valued above $14B today. Annual run rate above $200M. - Gitlab has no overlap with Twitter. GitHub does with its social network and other trends. GitHub's valuation, whether under Microsoft now, or as a hypothetical public company, is likely 3x+ Gitlab. Or ~$45B. Github 2018 rev was likely above $300M. These numbers won't line up with Twitter because of both getting a lot of SaaS, subscription, and enterprise revenue. - Telegram allegedly has been bank rolled by its founder since inception. I personally doubt this, but regardless, its bank roll has been limited. It didn't get the vast capital or marketing/namespace an SV company gets. Telegram's burn rate is lower than Twitter or any other company listed. Rumors say Telegram has turned down funding at a $30B valuation. Other rumors speak to a $30-50B IPO in 2023. - LINE, a messaging app with some social network features, is based in and most popular in Japan. It was a subsidiary of Korean company, Naver. LINE went public a few years ago. It did a 50/50 merger with Softbank's Yahoo Japan. The combined company, Z Holdings, has a market cap of $45B. LINE is most popular in a couple of South East Asian countries and with expats. - KakaoTalk, a messaging app with some social network features, is based in and most popular in Korea. It is much smaller than the others. 50M active users in 2021 with 90% in South Korea. KakaoTalk's parent company, Kakao, merged with Naver's competitor Daum with the current company called Kakao and valued at $45B. KakaoTalk only represents a fraction of this value.