3 ms·

Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalisations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the

Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalisations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns).

s1artibartfast 5y ago
>Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalizations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. This is exactly what the numbers support. both diseases have deaths on the order of 1/100,000 inflections for young children. >Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. All of the covid data we have suggests that infection symptoms are less severe if people have immunity from vaccine or prior illness. >To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns). Vaccines and lockdowns can help control the spread, but will never be enough to prevent it from being endemic. Vaccinated individuals can spread the disease and it is in animal populations around the world.
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  Please can you provide some sources for the childhood IFR of the common cold? I can't find anything myself. I suspect your numbers are very wrong. Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. Lockdowns have certainly worked in China (20% of the world's population), so it is possible, if we choose it. (to my knowledge, no significant outbreak has occurred from spillback)
  - shoto_io 5y ago
    "Lockdowns have worked". Depends on how you define "have worked". If you optimize for just variable (COVID infections), then yes, they have worked. Until now. If you look at the entire system, they have failed miserably.
    - oyashirochama 5y ago
      They also hide numbers, lie about stats not counting non-symptomatic positives in case totals and literally ignore human rights of being able to go and eat or walk. Kill peoples animals after forcing them out of their home. The list goes on. They still hide the origin and any information to this day and politically attack any country that pushes to open any investigation into it.
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    >Please can you provide some sources for the childhood IFR of the common cold? I can't find anything myself. I suspect your numbers are very wrong. Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. I agree that it is hard to find IFR/CFR for the common cold. You can use total influenza death to get a sense for a lower bound. This paper[1] puts total H1N1 Mortality at 6/100,00ok per year for <18 year olds and CFR at ~20/100,000K This paper[2] puts the total population mortality for flu at ~0.15/100K for <18 year olds this paper [3] also puts CFR for flu like symptoms in single digits x/100K for <18 year olds. >Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. There are many sources available for this one. This Israeli analysis [4] of 2.5 million individuals found that breakthrough infections were 7.13-fold higher in Vaccinated individuals than covid recovered individuals. Hospitalizations were 6.7-fold higher in vaccinated individuals than recovered. Of course it is better to get vaccinated than get covid the first time, but this demonstrates that natural infection immunity is very robust. >Lockdowns have certainly worked in China (20% of the world's population), so it is possible, if we choose it. Lockdowns and vaccination have helped control covid in china. They have not eradicated covid in China. This supports my point that covid will be endemic. 1: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673610611956#fig1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067361... 2: https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/141/4/e20172918/37796/Influenza-Associated-Pediatric-Deaths-in-the?autologincheck=redirected https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/141/4/e20172... 3: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1586/ers.10.24?casa_token=GEXRl0RBSRwAAAAA:QXbQvThYECyBPMKA14A234JH060h3FxEXeFJ1MIR9Gsi_ZB78xo-2qIviSajUhXrCv6zi0TK2NSZIQ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1586/ers.10.24?casa_t... 4: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full-text https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...

s1artibartfast 5y ago

>Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalizations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. This is exactly what the numbers support. both diseases have deaths on the order of 1/100,000 inflections for young children. >Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. All of the covid data we have suggests that infection symptoms are less severe if people have immunity from vaccine or prior illness. >To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns). Vaccines and lockdowns can help control the spread, but will never be enough to prevent it from being endemic. Vaccinated individuals can spread the disease and it is in animal populations around the world.

somewhereoutth 5y ago
Please can you provide some sources for the childhood IFR of the common cold? I can't find anything myself. I suspect your numbers are very wrong. Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. Lockdowns have certainly worked in China (20% of the world's population), so it is possible, if we choose it. (to my knowledge, no significant outbreak has occurred from spillback)
- shoto_io 5y ago
  "Lockdowns have worked". Depends on how you define "have worked". If you optimize for just variable (COVID infections), then yes, they have worked. Until now. If you look at the entire system, they have failed miserably.
  - oyashirochama 5y ago
    They also hide numbers, lie about stats not counting non-symptomatic positives in case totals and literally ignore human rights of being able to go and eat or walk. Kill peoples animals after forcing them out of their home. The list goes on. They still hide the origin and any information to this day and politically attack any country that pushes to open any investigation into it.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  >Please can you provide some sources for the childhood IFR of the common cold? I can't find anything myself. I suspect your numbers are very wrong. Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. I agree that it is hard to find IFR/CFR for the common cold. You can use total influenza death to get a sense for a lower bound. This paper[1] puts total H1N1 Mortality at 6/100,00ok per year for <18 year olds and CFR at ~20/100,000K This paper[2] puts the total population mortality for flu at ~0.15/100K for <18 year olds this paper [3] also puts CFR for flu like symptoms in single digits x/100K for <18 year olds. >Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. There are many sources available for this one. This Israeli analysis [4] of 2.5 million individuals found that breakthrough infections were 7.13-fold higher in Vaccinated individuals than covid recovered individuals. Hospitalizations were 6.7-fold higher in vaccinated individuals than recovered. Of course it is better to get vaccinated than get covid the first time, but this demonstrates that natural infection immunity is very robust. >Lockdowns have certainly worked in China (20% of the world's population), so it is possible, if we choose it. Lockdowns and vaccination have helped control covid in china. They have not eradicated covid in China. This supports my point that covid will be endemic. 1: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673610611956#fig1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067361... 2: https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/141/4/e20172918/37796/Influenza-Associated-Pediatric-Deaths-in-the?autologincheck=redirected https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/141/4/e20172... 3: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1586/ers.10.24?casa_token=GEXRl0RBSRwAAAAA:QXbQvThYECyBPMKA14A234JH060h3FxEXeFJ1MIR9Gsi_ZB78xo-2qIviSajUhXrCv6zi0TK2NSZIQ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1586/ers.10.24?casa_t... 4: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full-text https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...