3 ms·
To summarize: A lot of correlations between negative things happening and increased levels of air pollution, very little of which is rigorously causally linked.
by curiousgeorgio 5y ago
To summarize: A lot of correlations between negative things happening and increased levels of air pollution, very little of which is rigorously causally linked. Case in point:
> Stock market returns are lower on days with higher air pollution
I can't take this kind of article seriously. It presents a completely one-sided argument, and it's worded carefully so as to avoid outright statements of causality, but imply it nevertheless by pointing to a large number of weak correlations that together sound convincing. The overall conclusion was decided first, and the so-called evidence cherry picked to try and support it.
- paulgb 5y agoI think the study referred to is this one: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/5/2931/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/5/2931/pdf (there have been a few studies, but that's the only one that fit the “this year” criteria). I'm generally skeptical of papers that involve correlations with equity returns (because there is a reverse publication bias -- if you find a true source of alpha, your incentive is to trade it rather than publish it). But besides my general a priori skepticism, I don't see any red flags at a glance.