5 ms·

We have zero evidence that the common cold coronas were previously any more deadly than they are now. Zero evidence. Unfortunately the idea that Covid becomes

We have zero evidence that the common cold coronas were previously any more deadly than they are now. Zero evidence. Unfortunately the idea that Covid becomes just another common cold virus can be no more than wishful thinking at this point. Without vaccines and public health interventions, likely SARS-COV-2 would continue washing through the population, with waning immunity and variants causing endless sickness and death, much as smallpox, polio, measles etc used to before we got a handle on them.

s1artibartfast 5y ago
>Unfortunately the idea that Covid becomes just another common cold virus can be no more than wishful thinking at this point. It is not wishful thinking that in the future, child exposure and adult immunity will be the norm. Covid is already just another common cold for the young. Covid infection fatality rate for children is on the order of 1/100,000, similar to influenza or varicella (chicken pox), but much more dangerous for the elderly without immunity (like influenza or varicella). This is drastically different than something like smallpox, which had a 30% fatality rate.
- robotresearcher 5y ago
  > Covid is already just another common cold for the young. > Covid infection fatality rate for children is on the order of 1/100,000, similar to influenza or varicella (chicken pox) Aren't flu and chicken pox an order of magnitude or two (or three?) more deadly than the common cold in children?
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    Chicken pox case fatality was ~ 1/100,000 among children age 1 through 14 years before vaccines were introduced per the CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html
    - robotresearcher 5y ago
      Glad to hear it. And deaths from the common cold?
      - mbg721 5y ago
        Let's hope for none.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - s1artibartfast 5y ago
        I never made any claims comparing covid to the common cold. Just Covid to the Flu and pox. If you look it up, you can let me know.
        robotresearcher 5y ago
        I quoted you doing so. Here it is again: > Covid is already just another common cold for the young.
        s1artibartfast 5y ago
        I stand corrected. I should have said the common flu (not cold) in my original post. I believe that the cold is less dangerous than everything else mentioned. The Pediatric mortality Influenza, covid, and chicken pox are all about the same order of magnitude as each other. diseases like smallpox are perhaps 5 orders of magnitude more deadly.
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalisations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns).
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    >Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalizations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. This is exactly what the numbers support. both diseases have deaths on the order of 1/100,000 inflections for young children. >Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. All of the covid data we have suggests that infection symptoms are less severe if people have immunity from vaccine or prior illness. >To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns). Vaccines and lockdowns can help control the spread, but will never be enough to prevent it from being endemic. Vaccinated individuals can spread the disease and it is in animal populations around the world.
    - somewhereoutth 5y ago
      Please can you provide some sources for the childhood IFR of the common cold? I can't find anything myself. I suspect your numbers are very wrong. Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. Lockdowns have certainly worked in China (20% of the world's population), so it is possible, if we choose it. (to my knowledge, no significant outbreak has occurred from spillback)
      - 5y ago
shoto_io 5y ago
"Zero evidence", "Wishful thinking". No Sir. Just common sense. They 4 other CoV have been studied extensively and there are also theories about their origins. You are taking very different types of virii and compare them with a Corona Virus, which makes no sense at all. The question you need to answer: Why should this CoV be so different than the 4 others we know? Btw: Common colds can be very deadly if your immune system is weak or not familiar with them. Just go and ask some native Americans back in the 1640s.
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  Why should it be the same? Why shouldn't it be like its nearest relatives, SARS-1 and MERS? (10% and 50% CFR). As for the common cold and native Americans, you will need to ask them yourself - my understanding is that the common cold viruses have always been globally widespread. Please correct me if I'm wrong!
  - shoto_io 5y ago
    Because there is a reason they have been given the same name. They belong to the same family of virii. There are studies showing that exposure to one CoV induces immunity to the other. Here is just one paper around that topic: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34273512/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34273512/
    - somewhereoutth 5y ago
      So you are saying that I should not be afraid of a tiger, because they belong to the same family as the nice pussy cats I see everyday? After all, there is a reason they've been given the same name.
      - shoto_io 5y ago
        No :) I think that's actually what YOU are saying. You are comparing two virii that we could not observe for long in the wild (The Tigers) with some cat (Sars2). I think we have good evidence after 2 years that Sars2 is much more similar Sars1 and MERS - just from a KPI perspective.

s1artibartfast 5y ago

>Unfortunately the idea that Covid becomes just another common cold virus can be no more than wishful thinking at this point. It is not wishful thinking that in the future, child exposure and adult immunity will be the norm. Covid is already just another common cold for the young. Covid infection fatality rate for children is on the order of 1/100,000, similar to influenza or varicella (chicken pox), but much more dangerous for the elderly without immunity (like influenza or varicella). This is drastically different than something like smallpox, which had a 30% fatality rate.

robotresearcher 5y ago
> Covid is already just another common cold for the young. > Covid infection fatality rate for children is on the order of 1/100,000, similar to influenza or varicella (chicken pox) Aren't flu and chicken pox an order of magnitude or two (or three?) more deadly than the common cold in children?
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  Chicken pox case fatality was ~ 1/100,000 among children age 1 through 14 years before vaccines were introduced per the CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html
  - robotresearcher 5y ago
    Glad to hear it. And deaths from the common cold?
    - mbg721 5y ago
      Let's hope for none.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - s1artibartfast 5y ago
      I never made any claims comparing covid to the common cold. Just Covid to the Flu and pox. If you look it up, you can let me know.
      - robotresearcher 5y ago
        I quoted you doing so. Here it is again: > Covid is already just another common cold for the young.
        s1artibartfast 5y ago
        I stand corrected. I should have said the common flu (not cold) in my original post. I believe that the cold is less dangerous than everything else mentioned. The Pediatric mortality Influenza, covid, and chicken pox are all about the same order of magnitude as each other. diseases like smallpox are perhaps 5 orders of magnitude more deadly.
somewhereoutth 5y ago
Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalisations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns).
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  >Just going by your IFR figures for Covid, without even considering hospitalizations and long term effects, it is certainly not just another common cold for the young. This is exactly what the numbers support. both diseases have deaths on the order of 1/100,000 inflections for young children. >Furthermore, we don't know what if any protection childhood infection would give later in life - certainly reinfection in adults is common, with no guarantee that symptoms are less severe. All of the covid data we have suggests that infection symptoms are less severe if people have immunity from vaccine or prior illness. >To take any approach that allows the widespread circulation of Covid is reckless at best at this moment, particularly when we do have the tools available to us to control it (mandatory vaccination and targeted lockdowns). Vaccines and lockdowns can help control the spread, but will never be enough to prevent it from being endemic. Vaccinated individuals can spread the disease and it is in animal populations around the world.
  - somewhereoutth 5y ago
    Please can you provide some sources for the childhood IFR of the common cold? I can't find anything myself. I suspect your numbers are very wrong. Please also provide sources for subsequent reinfection (as opposed to vaccination) being less severe. Lockdowns have certainly worked in China (20% of the world's population), so it is possible, if we choose it. (to my knowledge, no significant outbreak has occurred from spillback)
    - 5y ago

shoto_io 5y ago

"Zero evidence", "Wishful thinking". No Sir. Just common sense. They 4 other CoV have been studied extensively and there are also theories about their origins. You are taking very different types of virii and compare them with a Corona Virus, which makes no sense at all. The question you need to answer: Why should this CoV be so different than the 4 others we know? Btw: Common colds can be very deadly if your immune system is weak or not familiar with them. Just go and ask some native Americans back in the 1640s.

somewhereoutth 5y ago
Why should it be the same? Why shouldn't it be like its nearest relatives, SARS-1 and MERS? (10% and 50% CFR). As for the common cold and native Americans, you will need to ask them yourself - my understanding is that the common cold viruses have always been globally widespread. Please correct me if I'm wrong!
- shoto_io 5y ago
  Because there is a reason they have been given the same name. They belong to the same family of virii. There are studies showing that exposure to one CoV induces immunity to the other. Here is just one paper around that topic: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34273512/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34273512/
  - somewhereoutth 5y ago
    So you are saying that I should not be afraid of a tiger, because they belong to the same family as the nice pussy cats I see everyday? After all, there is a reason they've been given the same name.
    - shoto_io 5y ago
      No :) I think that's actually what YOU are saying. You are comparing two virii that we could not observe for long in the wild (The Tigers) with some cat (Sars2). I think we have good evidence after 2 years that Sars2 is much more similar Sars1 and MERS - just from a KPI perspective.