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An understanding that dealing with super complex systems with lots of interacting variables are very hard to accurately model and prediction value is likely to

An understanding that dealing with super complex systems with lots of interacting variables are very hard to accurately model and prediction value is likely to be low? Plus maybe just a general distaste for propaganda. For my own part I believe humans are affecting the climate to some extent. I don't see how anything else would be possible. But I'm early 50's and have been watching this closely for 30 years and don't believe the hype and doomsday predictions anymore. I don't think the models are good enough to say what will happen in sum. Should we get off fossil fuels and stop polluting? Yes as fast as practically possible. Is OMG the world ending oceans collapsing 12 years from now? Probably not and they don't actually know that.

moistly 5y ago
> But I'm early 50's and have been watching this closely for 30 years Likewise. And what I’ve noted is that the IPCC’s optimistic predictions keep proving far too optimistic, and their worse-outcome predictions keep coming true, sooner than predicted. I also see corporations that are loathe to change suddenly make commitments to change, and to make those changes pretty quickly. To my eyes, that is a big indication that things have started going well off the rails. I’m not looking forward to having to handle the wheels falling off of society in my senior years as crop failures, infrastructure collapse, and social unrest kick into high gear.
- mythrwy 5y ago
  That's really strange, I'm curious what you have seen in the last 30 years that makes you feel catastrophe is more imminent (climate wise, not social or geopolitical, we probably agree that is off the rails lol). The polar ice caps were predicted to be gone. Still there. Coral reef collapse. They are flourishing. Massive rapid sea level rise. Very small, unnoticeable without measuring equipment. Increase in extreme weather events. Hasn't happened. In short, things aren't a whole lot different then they were 30 years ago. I realize 30 years isn't that long but still, there were some really extreme predictions (and I was worried) but they don't look to be coming to pass and I don't think they will for the next 30 either.
  - moistly 5y ago
    The polar ice caps were at the lowest volume ever in 2017, and have broken records continuously this past decade or so: “Still there” is a disingenuous dismissal of their morbid condition. http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger... The coral reefs are collapsing. To claim otherwise is simply ludicrous. https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00474-7?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2590332221004747%3Fshowall%3Dtrue https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00474-... Sea levels are rising an eighth of an inch a year, and over 2 ½ inches this past forty years. This is noticeable. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html Extreme weather events have doubled in the past two decades. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-increased-significantly-in-the-last-20-years https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-inc... You are deeply uninformed.
    - mythrwy 5y ago
      Extreme weather events haven't doubled in the past two decades. That is ludicrous. Additionally the article you link doesn't even say that. Neither are the coral reefs collapsing. https://www.royalgazette.com/environment/news/article/20210810/bermudas-coral-reefs-doing-well-but-future-is-uncertain/ https://www.royalgazette.com/environment/news/article/202108... (btw this claims sea level rise is less then 1/10 of an inch year, not 1/8). Great Barrier reef has record levels of coral this year. I've personally observed many sections of the second largest reef in Mexico/Belize within the past few years and the corral are healthy with many young corral and look pretty much as they did when I first saw them 30 years ago. The reefs are not collapsing. This is reality, not propaganda, not the output of theoretical models. How do you square this with some of the more extreme predictions? It is very interesting how we both have watched over the same time period and see different things apparently. I don't believe I'm uninformed at all. I just don't believe the hype anymore.
      - moistly 5y ago
        You have no idea what you’re on about. You should have indicated that you’re a denier, and saved me this waste of time. Good luck.

moistly 5y ago

> But I'm early 50's and have been watching this closely for 30 years Likewise. And what I’ve noted is that the IPCC’s optimistic predictions keep proving far too optimistic, and their worse-outcome predictions keep coming true, sooner than predicted. I also see corporations that are loathe to change suddenly make commitments to change, and to make those changes pretty quickly. To my eyes, that is a big indication that things have started going well off the rails. I’m not looking forward to having to handle the wheels falling off of society in my senior years as crop failures, infrastructure collapse, and social unrest kick into high gear.

mythrwy 5y ago
That's really strange, I'm curious what you have seen in the last 30 years that makes you feel catastrophe is more imminent (climate wise, not social or geopolitical, we probably agree that is off the rails lol). The polar ice caps were predicted to be gone. Still there. Coral reef collapse. They are flourishing. Massive rapid sea level rise. Very small, unnoticeable without measuring equipment. Increase in extreme weather events. Hasn't happened. In short, things aren't a whole lot different then they were 30 years ago. I realize 30 years isn't that long but still, there were some really extreme predictions (and I was worried) but they don't look to be coming to pass and I don't think they will for the next 30 either.
- moistly 5y ago
  The polar ice caps were at the lowest volume ever in 2017, and have broken records continuously this past decade or so: “Still there” is a disingenuous dismissal of their morbid condition. http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger... The coral reefs are collapsing. To claim otherwise is simply ludicrous. https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00474-7?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2590332221004747%3Fshowall%3Dtrue https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00474-... Sea levels are rising an eighth of an inch a year, and over 2 ½ inches this past forty years. This is noticeable. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html Extreme weather events have doubled in the past two decades. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-increased-significantly-in-the-last-20-years https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-inc... You are deeply uninformed.
  - mythrwy 5y ago
    Extreme weather events haven't doubled in the past two decades. That is ludicrous. Additionally the article you link doesn't even say that. Neither are the coral reefs collapsing. https://www.royalgazette.com/environment/news/article/20210810/bermudas-coral-reefs-doing-well-but-future-is-uncertain/ https://www.royalgazette.com/environment/news/article/202108... (btw this claims sea level rise is less then 1/10 of an inch year, not 1/8). Great Barrier reef has record levels of coral this year. I've personally observed many sections of the second largest reef in Mexico/Belize within the past few years and the corral are healthy with many young corral and look pretty much as they did when I first saw them 30 years ago. The reefs are not collapsing. This is reality, not propaganda, not the output of theoretical models. How do you square this with some of the more extreme predictions? It is very interesting how we both have watched over the same time period and see different things apparently. I don't believe I'm uninformed at all. I just don't believe the hype anymore.
    - moistly 5y ago
      You have no idea what you’re on about. You should have indicated that you’re a denier, and saved me this waste of time. Good luck.