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Pretty shocking to see Taleb write such a poorly thought out article. Taleb fails to account for opportunity cost (a huge fail, if also a widespread one), the

Pretty shocking to see Taleb write such a poorly thought out article. Taleb fails to account for opportunity cost (a huge fail, if also a widespread one), the inevitability of exposure, and much else. He then invokes eugenics, and calls people who disagree psychopaths. What the actual fuck? And his math is baaad. > Now if we were to compute the effect on life expectancy, note that the effect acts across the board: a 30 year old loses more than 50 years of life, an 80 y.o. loses about a decade, etc. Compare to: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254488/us-share-of-total-covid-deaths-by-age-group/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254488/us-share-of-tota... You're >8 times LESS likely to die from Corona at 30 as the average, and >5 times MORE likely to die at 80 as the average. Even accounting for the difference in years lost, that's a difference of at least 8x.

_Microft 5y ago
The force multiplier graph shows how the risk of death changes depending on age and the curve is remarkable flat. If you are unsure what it is showing: it is the ratio of the risk of death by/with Covid at a particular age to the risk of death without. As the risk of dying rises rapidly with age, the absolute effect of Covid is becoming larger because it multiplies a larger base value. So, it's affecting almost all adults the same way, it is just that the sick and elderly start from a much worse point. Beside that I believe that Taleb knowns how to calculate a weighted average.
sigmaprimus 5y ago
Hehe, It does read more like a rant than an article. I guess everyone needs to blow off a bit of steam every once in a while. As a counter to the point that many are dismissing the deaths and suffering of older members of society, and that this is a form of eugenics. I would say that the greatest portion of people falling severely ill and dying are those who have over consumed and lived relatively comfortable lives for a long time and that just so happens to be an older population. Many of these people have not missed a meal in decades and spend their lives sitting in lazy boys consuming media, driving half a block to the store and living sedentary lives not due to disability but privilege. The meek TRULY shall and ARE inheriting the earth!

_Microft 5y ago

The force multiplier graph shows how the risk of death changes depending on age and the curve is remarkable flat. If you are unsure what it is showing: it is the ratio of the risk of death by/with Covid at a particular age to the risk of death without. As the risk of dying rises rapidly with age, the absolute effect of Covid is becoming larger because it multiplies a larger base value. So, it's affecting almost all adults the same way, it is just that the sick and elderly start from a much worse point. Beside that I believe that Taleb knowns how to calculate a weighted average.

sigmaprimus 5y ago

Hehe, It does read more like a rant than an article. I guess everyone needs to blow off a bit of steam every once in a while. As a counter to the point that many are dismissing the deaths and suffering of older members of society, and that this is a form of eugenics. I would say that the greatest portion of people falling severely ill and dying are those who have over consumed and lived relatively comfortable lives for a long time and that just so happens to be an older population. Many of these people have not missed a meal in decades and spend their lives sitting in lazy boys consuming media, driving half a block to the store and living sedentary lives not due to disability but privilege. The meek TRULY shall and ARE inheriting the earth!