4 ms·

Covid 19 is not an old person problem

4 points by imartin2k 5y ago

mandmandam 5y ago
Pretty shocking to see Taleb write such a poorly thought out article. Taleb fails to account for opportunity cost (a huge fail, if also a widespread one), the inevitability of exposure, and much else. He then invokes eugenics, and calls people who disagree psychopaths. What the actual fuck? And his math is baaad. > Now if we were to compute the effect on life expectancy, note that the effect acts across the board: a 30 year old loses more than 50 years of life, an 80 y.o. loses about a decade, etc. Compare to: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254488/us-share-of-total-covid-deaths-by-age-group/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254488/us-share-of-tota... You're >8 times LESS likely to die from Corona at 30 as the average, and >5 times MORE likely to die at 80 as the average. Even accounting for the difference in years lost, that's a difference of at least 8x.
- _Microft 5y ago
  The force multiplier graph shows how the risk of death changes depending on age and the curve is remarkable flat. If you are unsure what it is showing: it is the ratio of the risk of death by/with Covid at a particular age to the risk of death without. As the risk of dying rises rapidly with age, the absolute effect of Covid is becoming larger because it multiplies a larger base value. So, it's affecting almost all adults the same way, it is just that the sick and elderly start from a much worse point. Beside that I believe that Taleb knowns how to calculate a weighted average.
- sigmaprimus 5y ago
  Hehe, It does read more like a rant than an article. I guess everyone needs to blow off a bit of steam every once in a while. As a counter to the point that many are dismissing the deaths and suffering of older members of society, and that this is a form of eugenics. I would say that the greatest portion of people falling severely ill and dying are those who have over consumed and lived relatively comfortable lives for a long time and that just so happens to be an older population. Many of these people have not missed a meal in decades and spend their lives sitting in lazy boys consuming media, driving half a block to the store and living sedentary lives not due to disability but privilege. The meek TRULY shall and ARE inheriting the earth!
finite_jest 5y ago
Although the article's main claim is probably correct in many reasonable senses, Talib's take is pretentious and hard to evaluate. As it is usual with Talib, there is handwaving involved, he doesn't seriously engage with the opposing views, and the concepts are almost never clearly defined. Apparently, to compare the risk between the young and the old, he is using an estimate of the change to the annualized mortality rate due to Covid. It is not clear where his data is sourced from, but almost certainly he has not accounted for basic facts like the elderly being vaccinated earlier, or that they probably have been more cautious during the pandemic. And of course, he has removed people under 30 from his graph for expedience. [1] I think what Thiel says about Keynes is also applicable to Talib: despite his brilliance, he's also a bit of an elitist fraud. [2] [1]: However, if your eyes are still young, you can read this in small grey print under the chart: "For the youth the ratio is both lower and much more unstable owing the rarity of both death and death from COVID." [2]: https://www.nationalreview.com/2011/10/end-future-peter-thiel/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2011/10/end-future-peter-thie...
peteradio 5y ago
This is a shameful article with really shitty argumentation starting from the title: It is absolutely an old person problem predominantly. Mortality of youth is tiny so any order 1 multiplier is still tiny. Any discussion that tries to obscure that crucial point is trying to delude you. "Now if we were to compute the effect on life expectancy, note that the effect acts across the board: a 30 year old loses more than 50 years of life, an 80 y.o. loses about a decade, etc." What is this saying? I'm 30 so I should expect to die soon? Or I should have expected to live to 110 but now I will live to 60? Or maybe he's not got a clue how to apply the mortality weight integrated over time? "If Covid is an old person problem, deserving to be ignored on that account, let’s treat cardiology, oncology, urology, and most of internal medicine in the same manner." Who is saying this? Wild strawman. "you treat the current elderly the way you would like to be treated when you grow older. For even psychopaths will be older some day." I fully expect my savings to be plundered by the continued growth of for profit health care. What I do to my immune system today had better be with my own future in mind.
- brodouevencode 5y ago
  As much of a fan of NNT as I am this was a wildly disappointing article. My inner optimist hopes that this was intentionally put together to be incoherent in order to provoke some other conversation which would be his real aim (but that's almost assuredly not it).
  - peteradio 5y ago
    I don't know what to make of it, I'm addressing it at face value. But it is so weird to think a guy that is into long-tail thinking is calling people who are doing exactly that psychopaths.
- nojokes 5y ago
  Actually he has correct perspective. Yes, more older people die. But higher risk to die young should be not overlooked. I never thought that I could die because of simple respiratory illness. I have been sick many times but each time I assumed that regardless of the seriousness of the illness, I will recover. COVID-19 puts it into different perspective.

4 points by imartin2k 5y ago

Pretty shocking to see Taleb write such a poorly thought out article. Taleb fails to account for opportunity cost (a huge fail, if also a widespread one), the inevitability of exposure, and much else. He then invokes eugenics, and calls people who disagree psychopaths. What the actual fuck? And his math is baaad. > Now if we were to compute the effect on life expectancy, note that the effect acts across the board: a 30 year old loses more than 50 years of life, an 80 y.o. loses about a decade, etc. Compare to: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254488/us-share-of-total-covid-deaths-by-age-group/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254488/us-share-of-tota... You're >8 times LESS likely to die from Corona at 30 as the average, and >5 times MORE likely to die at 80 as the average. Even accounting for the difference in years lost, that's a difference of at least 8x.

_Microft 5y ago
The force multiplier graph shows how the risk of death changes depending on age and the curve is remarkable flat. If you are unsure what it is showing: it is the ratio of the risk of death by/with Covid at a particular age to the risk of death without. As the risk of dying rises rapidly with age, the absolute effect of Covid is becoming larger because it multiplies a larger base value. So, it's affecting almost all adults the same way, it is just that the sick and elderly start from a much worse point. Beside that I believe that Taleb knowns how to calculate a weighted average.
sigmaprimus 5y ago
Hehe, It does read more like a rant than an article. I guess everyone needs to blow off a bit of steam every once in a while. As a counter to the point that many are dismissing the deaths and suffering of older members of society, and that this is a form of eugenics. I would say that the greatest portion of people falling severely ill and dying are those who have over consumed and lived relatively comfortable lives for a long time and that just so happens to be an older population. Many of these people have not missed a meal in decades and spend their lives sitting in lazy boys consuming media, driving half a block to the store and living sedentary lives not due to disability but privilege. The meek TRULY shall and ARE inheriting the earth!

finite_jest 5y ago

Although the article's main claim is probably correct in many reasonable senses, Talib's take is pretentious and hard to evaluate. As it is usual with Talib, there is handwaving involved, he doesn't seriously engage with the opposing views, and the concepts are almost never clearly defined. Apparently, to compare the risk between the young and the old, he is using an estimate of the change to the annualized mortality rate due to Covid. It is not clear where his data is sourced from, but almost certainly he has not accounted for basic facts like the elderly being vaccinated earlier, or that they probably have been more cautious during the pandemic. And of course, he has removed people under 30 from his graph for expedience. [1] I think what Thiel says about Keynes is also applicable to Talib: despite his brilliance, he's also a bit of an elitist fraud. [2] [1]: However, if your eyes are still young, you can read this in small grey print under the chart: "For the youth the ratio is both lower and much more unstable owing the rarity of both death and death from COVID." [2]: https://www.nationalreview.com/2011/10/end-future-peter-thiel/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2011/10/end-future-peter-thie...

peteradio 5y ago

This is a shameful article with really shitty argumentation starting from the title: It is absolutely an old person problem predominantly. Mortality of youth is tiny so any order 1 multiplier is still tiny. Any discussion that tries to obscure that crucial point is trying to delude you. "Now if we were to compute the effect on life expectancy, note that the effect acts across the board: a 30 year old loses more than 50 years of life, an 80 y.o. loses about a decade, etc." What is this saying? I'm 30 so I should expect to die soon? Or I should have expected to live to 110 but now I will live to 60? Or maybe he's not got a clue how to apply the mortality weight integrated over time? "If Covid is an old person problem, deserving to be ignored on that account, let’s treat cardiology, oncology, urology, and most of internal medicine in the same manner." Who is saying this? Wild strawman. "you treat the current elderly the way you would like to be treated when you grow older. For even psychopaths will be older some day." I fully expect my savings to be plundered by the continued growth of for profit health care. What I do to my immune system today had better be with my own future in mind.

brodouevencode 5y ago
As much of a fan of NNT as I am this was a wildly disappointing article. My inner optimist hopes that this was intentionally put together to be incoherent in order to provoke some other conversation which would be his real aim (but that's almost assuredly not it).
- peteradio 5y ago
  I don't know what to make of it, I'm addressing it at face value. But it is so weird to think a guy that is into long-tail thinking is calling people who are doing exactly that psychopaths.
nojokes 5y ago
Actually he has correct perspective. Yes, more older people die. But higher risk to die young should be not overlooked. I never thought that I could die because of simple respiratory illness. I have been sick many times but each time I assumed that regardless of the seriousness of the illness, I will recover. COVID-19 puts it into different perspective.