4 ms·

This seems a little far fetched. China can bring overwhelming force to bear on Taiwan. Without the US being involved, it would only be a matter of time before t

This seems a little far fetched. China can bring overwhelming force to bear on Taiwan. Without the US being involved, it would only be a matter of time before the PRC had near total air superiority. And they also have medium range missiles. Taiwan is serious about military defense and they are well prepared. They have been for a long time. But China simply has far greater numbers and they are very highly motivated.

deleted 5y ago
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KaiserPro 5y ago
Taiwan is a pain in the arse to invade. Its an island surrounded by deep water. This means that you need complete air and sea control before invasion. Thats costly and difficult, if you want the island to be intact afterwards.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  It's not that hard when the island is 200km away and you have 10 000 precision missiles and ten time as many fighters. Total air and navam superiority is something the Chinese are projected to gain in a day or so.
- wahern 5y ago
  > Thats costly and difficult, if you want the island to be intact afterwards. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly entail a prior reconciliation with extreme, prolonged economic disruption from severe global backlash. China desires to control Taiwan as a matter of territorial integrity (from its perspective), diminishment of U.S. strategic influence, and in general national pride. I wouldn't be surprised if the first inbound missiles targeted TSMC and other important industrial assets--less incentive for the U.S. to come to Taiwan's defense. (Not that I think the U.S's decision to intervene would be predicated on mere industrial ties.)
pydry 5y ago
I doubt overwhelming air superiority would be possible, certainly with conventional aircraft. Taiwan has really good anti aircraft systems. Perhaps if China is in posession of some sort of drone tech as yet unheard of. Even then air superiority only gets them so far. PRC is obviously massively more powerful but Taiwan can still exact a toll way WAY higher than they'd be prepared to tolerate.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Taiwan's indigenous anti air system has never been tested. The Patriot systems that the US provided are really bad, in Israel they routinely fail to intercept drones, and in Saudi Arabia they failed to intercept low quality cruise missiles. Those are basic targets with no jamming and no anti-radiation threat. In a real war with China it would get absolutely destroyed. What we do know about indigenous Taiwanese systems is that plenty of buyers were sought but none preferred it to the alternatives. They will not make it more than two days against the Chinese. Taiwanese has pretty bad air defence systems. There's a reason Turkey wanted to buy S-400 and that's because American air defences suck badly.

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KaiserPro 5y ago

Taiwan is a pain in the arse to invade. Its an island surrounded by deep water. This means that you need complete air and sea control before invasion. Thats costly and difficult, if you want the island to be intact afterwards.

sudosysgen 5y ago
It's not that hard when the island is 200km away and you have 10 000 precision missiles and ten time as many fighters. Total air and navam superiority is something the Chinese are projected to gain in a day or so.
wahern 5y ago
> Thats costly and difficult, if you want the island to be intact afterwards. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly entail a prior reconciliation with extreme, prolonged economic disruption from severe global backlash. China desires to control Taiwan as a matter of territorial integrity (from its perspective), diminishment of U.S. strategic influence, and in general national pride. I wouldn't be surprised if the first inbound missiles targeted TSMC and other important industrial assets--less incentive for the U.S. to come to Taiwan's defense. (Not that I think the U.S's decision to intervene would be predicated on mere industrial ties.)

pydry 5y ago

I doubt overwhelming air superiority would be possible, certainly with conventional aircraft. Taiwan has really good anti aircraft systems. Perhaps if China is in posession of some sort of drone tech as yet unheard of. Even then air superiority only gets them so far. PRC is obviously massively more powerful but Taiwan can still exact a toll way WAY higher than they'd be prepared to tolerate.

sudosysgen 5y ago
Taiwan's indigenous anti air system has never been tested. The Patriot systems that the US provided are really bad, in Israel they routinely fail to intercept drones, and in Saudi Arabia they failed to intercept low quality cruise missiles. Those are basic targets with no jamming and no anti-radiation threat. In a real war with China it would get absolutely destroyed. What we do know about indigenous Taiwanese systems is that plenty of buyers were sought but none preferred it to the alternatives. They will not make it more than two days against the Chinese. Taiwanese has pretty bad air defence systems. There's a reason Turkey wanted to buy S-400 and that's because American air defences suck badly.