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It seems investors are happy to pile cash into SpaceX - not very likely they go bankrupt anytime soon. Valuations: August 2020: 46b [1] Feb 2021: 74b [1] Oc

It seems investors are happy to pile cash into SpaceX - not very likely they go bankrupt anytime soon. Valuations: August 2020: 46b [1] Feb 2021: 74b [1] Oct 2021: 100b [2] And I'm sure a lot of private investors would love to buy a piece. Half of HN would buy at 100b valuation I think. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/04/16/is-spacex-really-worth-74-billion/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/04/16/is... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/elon-musks-spacex-valuation-100-billion.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/elon-musks-spacex-valuation-...

hazza_n_dazza 5y ago
$100b is just enough to put in a couple of bridges, or a few roads. Pocket change these days. eg, five tunnels in Victoria Australia, $50b https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-s-big-build-under-scrutiny-as-price-tag-hits-81b-20210416-p57jvi.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-s-big-buil...
sneak 5y ago
This is the part that doesn't make sense to me. Look at Tesla stonk: everyone I know would gladly take a soldering iron to their fleshy undercarriage to buy SpaceX shares at nearly any price. (I'm not saying they should go public, I'm saying their actual real-world risk is dilution, not bankruptcy.) Seems like this might just be some "c'mon guys" cheerleading to get Elon Time and Human Time to converge a bit faster. He's said some super over-the-line shit before ("pedo guy", "S Elon's C") and it would not surprise me if this were just more of the same. Ultimately the whole thing is bottlenecked on production of unprecedented machines, and if I were in his shoes, I would be saying and doing literally anything I could think of to get the individual humans responsible for those tasks to work a) super hard and b) as close to nonstop as is physically possible. Doesn't make it right.
itsoktocry 5y ago
Valuations are not cash-on-hand, and private valuations (insiders trading with each other) are barely relevant. >And I'm sure a lot of private investors would love to buy a piece. Are you sure sure? Because SpaceX has been fundraising for years, and has had trouble getting financing as recently as a couple years ago. Maybe the people with the money know something you don't? Space is hard and expensive.
- avmich 5y ago
  Or vice versa. People with money tend to be conservative about trends and prospects, while with SpaceX we may have a qualitative change - like, remember in 1990-s there were talks that "this time it's different"? Do you see how that Internet thing went back to oblivion? Investors had a sea change event in 2004, when X Prize was won; since then SpaceX was largely successful in demonstrating profitable innovations. However - judging by the absence of financing serious competitors to SpaceX - investors seems to be lagging with estimating SpaceX. So maybe - maybe - investors have still too much of doubts they've had before 2004.
boh 5y ago
A company's valuation has nothing to do with its capital structure. You don't know how much of its cash is servicing debt. It is possible (particularly for a capital intensive business) to go bankrupt regardless of any continuing investment.
inglor_cz 5y ago
If I understand the situation correctly, SpaceX is not immediately threatened by lack of money, but they sorely need to ramp up their Raptor effort, or the Starlink project will eventually fail from lack of efficient orbital access.

hazza_n_dazza 5y ago

$100b is just enough to put in a couple of bridges, or a few roads. Pocket change these days. eg, five tunnels in Victoria Australia, $50b https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-s-big-build-under-scrutiny-as-price-tag-hits-81b-20210416-p57jvi.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-s-big-buil...

sneak 5y ago

This is the part that doesn't make sense to me. Look at Tesla stonk: everyone I know would gladly take a soldering iron to their fleshy undercarriage to buy SpaceX shares at nearly any price. (I'm not saying they should go public, I'm saying their actual real-world risk is dilution, not bankruptcy.) Seems like this might just be some "c'mon guys" cheerleading to get Elon Time and Human Time to converge a bit faster. He's said some super over-the-line shit before ("pedo guy", "S Elon's C") and it would not surprise me if this were just more of the same. Ultimately the whole thing is bottlenecked on production of unprecedented machines, and if I were in his shoes, I would be saying and doing literally anything I could think of to get the individual humans responsible for those tasks to work a) super hard and b) as close to nonstop as is physically possible. Doesn't make it right.

itsoktocry 5y ago

Valuations are not cash-on-hand, and private valuations (insiders trading with each other) are barely relevant. >And I'm sure a lot of private investors would love to buy a piece. Are you sure sure? Because SpaceX has been fundraising for years, and has had trouble getting financing as recently as a couple years ago. Maybe the people with the money know something you don't? Space is hard and expensive.

avmich 5y ago
Or vice versa. People with money tend to be conservative about trends and prospects, while with SpaceX we may have a qualitative change - like, remember in 1990-s there were talks that "this time it's different"? Do you see how that Internet thing went back to oblivion? Investors had a sea change event in 2004, when X Prize was won; since then SpaceX was largely successful in demonstrating profitable innovations. However - judging by the absence of financing serious competitors to SpaceX - investors seems to be lagging with estimating SpaceX. So maybe - maybe - investors have still too much of doubts they've had before 2004.

boh 5y ago

A company's valuation has nothing to do with its capital structure. You don't know how much of its cash is servicing debt. It is possible (particularly for a capital intensive business) to go bankrupt regardless of any continuing investment.

inglor_cz 5y ago

If I understand the situation correctly, SpaceX is not immediately threatened by lack of money, but they sorely need to ramp up their Raptor effort, or the Starlink project will eventually fail from lack of efficient orbital access.