7 ms·

That's what's going on right now. China is building ships at rates unprecedented since after WWII. It's concerning. My feeling is they have a window of a decade

by eloff 5y ago

That's what's going on right now. China is building ships at rates unprecedented since after WWII. It's concerning. My feeling is they have a window of a decade or two during which they can make a grab for Taiwan. After which it may become relatively more difficult with demographics against them, increased defenses in Taiwan, and increased cooperation and perhaps commitment among its allies.

nebula8804 5y ago
Once they open that door there is no going back. They would need to act at a moment where the US is extremely weak. It might happen if(most likely when) Trump gets elected again. Man I don't even wanna think what happens if that Pandora's box is opened.
- MarcoZavala 5y ago
- elzbardico 5y ago
  As much as I hate trump, as a foreigner I fail to see how the US could look weaker than right now. Admiration is a different thing from respect. I might have thought bullies were ridiculous specimens of the human race, and yet, I never dared to cross them. edit: typo
  - oblio 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_... You were saying? :-)
    - elzbardico 5y ago
      Having the largest military is useless if high command is shit.
      - oblio 5y ago
        Bold assumption that the other big militaries have top notch high commands.
    - AussieWog93 5y ago
      I think he was comparing the US today to the US in the recent past. Given the humiliating failure in Afghanistan as well as political instability at home, I don't think it's an unfair statement.
    - gampleman 5y ago
      Before the start of WW2, the US army was smaller than the army of Portugal, ranked #19 in the world. This was probably part of the reason Hitler foolishly declared war on the US. Of course, what was perhaps somewhat surprising at the time was the US ability to massively and quickly expand that military force under a generally still prosperous wartime economy. Just saying... :-)
      - frockington1 5y ago
        Hitler and Hideki both thought the US population would immediately roll over under pressure. Even then, I still don't understand the logic in adding the US as an adversary, land mass alone would make it near impossible to physically conquer.
  - nebula8804 5y ago
    I don't fully believe that. First of all we need to differentiate 2024 with the present day. In regards to the present day, despite all the setbacks and the government basically being paralyzed, the US is still moving forward in key technologies and areas of improvement faster than any other western power. Our only real competition is China in many regards and even then they have many pitfalls that could slow them down (instability in the govt, incoming demographic issues). The worry with someone like Trump getting elected is that he will actively go backwards and thats a problem. Its bad enough that he increases tension within the population. If he actually delivered meaningful progress then I think there would be some argument to have him back. But he actively moves backwards on critical issues that we need to move forward on if we are to compete with China. The worst that typically happens with Democrats is that the country stands still which is not great but thats the low bar we have had for decades now. It is entirely possible that a charismatic outsider can come along and provide some tiny semblance of progress like the Obama years. That is the best case scenario for 2024.
- DeathArrow 5y ago
  >It might happen if(most likely when) Trump gets elected again. Trump was the first to assert that China represents a danger to US.
  - AussieWog93 5y ago
    That statement is a little bit misleading. Many world leaders, including Trump, started viewing China as a threat to global stability and peace during 2016-2018 or so, in response to domestic power plays and foreign policy and diplomacy changes initiated by Xi.
  - nebula8804 5y ago
    Yes he gets a cookie for reading the tea leaves and telling the country what they wanted to hear. Thats his signature move if you haven't realized. Where he gets a lump of coal is following through. His state department totally botched the attempt to rein in China starting the with ZTE and Huawei debacles. If you are going to fire the shot you better not miss. He has hurt the US so much by not taking that issue seriously and doing things strategically. Those consequences have spilled over into the Biden years and will continue to harm the US long after Trump's first administration have moved on. When Obama was under the same situation with Russia in the early 2010s, one can argue that he put more effort into coming up with a viable strategy to punish them for their actions.
DeathArrow 5y ago
I don't think they will invade Taiwan soon. The economic and political costs will be huge, regardless of military costs. I think they intend to pressure Taiwan into surrende, by economic and diplomatic means. That will be a very long term goal. But China is good at executing ambitious long term plans and having long term strategies.

by eloff 5y ago

nebula8804 5y ago

Once they open that door there is no going back. They would need to act at a moment where the US is extremely weak. It might happen if(most likely when) Trump gets elected again. Man I don't even wanna think what happens if that Pandora's box is opened.

MarcoZavala 5y ago
elzbardico 5y ago
As much as I hate trump, as a foreigner I fail to see how the US could look weaker than right now. Admiration is a different thing from respect. I might have thought bullies were ridiculous specimens of the human race, and yet, I never dared to cross them. edit: typo
- oblio 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_... You were saying? :-)
  - elzbardico 5y ago
    Having the largest military is useless if high command is shit.
    - oblio 5y ago
      Bold assumption that the other big militaries have top notch high commands.
  - AussieWog93 5y ago
    I think he was comparing the US today to the US in the recent past. Given the humiliating failure in Afghanistan as well as political instability at home, I don't think it's an unfair statement.
  - gampleman 5y ago
    Before the start of WW2, the US army was smaller than the army of Portugal, ranked #19 in the world. This was probably part of the reason Hitler foolishly declared war on the US. Of course, what was perhaps somewhat surprising at the time was the US ability to massively and quickly expand that military force under a generally still prosperous wartime economy. Just saying... :-)
    - frockington1 5y ago
      Hitler and Hideki both thought the US population would immediately roll over under pressure. Even then, I still don't understand the logic in adding the US as an adversary, land mass alone would make it near impossible to physically conquer.
- nebula8804 5y ago
  I don't fully believe that. First of all we need to differentiate 2024 with the present day. In regards to the present day, despite all the setbacks and the government basically being paralyzed, the US is still moving forward in key technologies and areas of improvement faster than any other western power. Our only real competition is China in many regards and even then they have many pitfalls that could slow them down (instability in the govt, incoming demographic issues). The worry with someone like Trump getting elected is that he will actively go backwards and thats a problem. Its bad enough that he increases tension within the population. If he actually delivered meaningful progress then I think there would be some argument to have him back. But he actively moves backwards on critical issues that we need to move forward on if we are to compete with China. The worst that typically happens with Democrats is that the country stands still which is not great but thats the low bar we have had for decades now. It is entirely possible that a charismatic outsider can come along and provide some tiny semblance of progress like the Obama years. That is the best case scenario for 2024.
DeathArrow 5y ago
>It might happen if(most likely when) Trump gets elected again. Trump was the first to assert that China represents a danger to US.
- AussieWog93 5y ago
  That statement is a little bit misleading. Many world leaders, including Trump, started viewing China as a threat to global stability and peace during 2016-2018 or so, in response to domestic power plays and foreign policy and diplomacy changes initiated by Xi.
- nebula8804 5y ago
  Yes he gets a cookie for reading the tea leaves and telling the country what they wanted to hear. Thats his signature move if you haven't realized. Where he gets a lump of coal is following through. His state department totally botched the attempt to rein in China starting the with ZTE and Huawei debacles. If you are going to fire the shot you better not miss. He has hurt the US so much by not taking that issue seriously and doing things strategically. Those consequences have spilled over into the Biden years and will continue to harm the US long after Trump's first administration have moved on. When Obama was under the same situation with Russia in the early 2010s, one can argue that he put more effort into coming up with a viable strategy to punish them for their actions.

DeathArrow 5y ago

I don't think they will invade Taiwan soon. The economic and political costs will be huge, regardless of military costs. I think they intend to pressure Taiwan into surrende, by economic and diplomatic means. That will be a very long term goal. But China is good at executing ambitious long term plans and having long term strategies.