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> So how do we decide when the automated car is 'good enough'? This is actually a really interesting point. I don't think people appreciate how far accident ra
by semi-extrinsic 5y ago
> So how do we decide when the automated car is 'good enough'?
This is actually a really interesting point. I don't think people appreciate how far accident rates have actually dropped for modern cars without self driving. Even at million-cars-per-year sales rate you will need years of data to prove that a single self-driving software+hardware combo is better than humans with high statistical confidence. Your development cycles would be decades-long, like in aviation, if you want to be sure you're actually improving.
- mgraczyk 5y agoFortunately waymo and others do have years of data. Also, you can make reasonable inferences about fatal accidents using non-fatal accidents. All fatal accidents are also normal accidents. If waymo has far fewer non fatal accidents, you can reasonably infer it would have fewer fatal accidents. Otherwise you'd have to believe waymo's accidents are more likely to be fatal, but the opposite is probably true because of the locations and speeds where they drive (at least for the passenger lol) You can also make inferences about accidents based on disengagements or undesirable events (human labeled). It's not as data limited as you might think.