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There is also some research showing this 'wisdom' of crowds in polling that theorizes if you ask someone who they think will win - versus who they support - the

There is also some research showing this 'wisdom' of crowds in polling that theorizes if you ask someone who they think will win - versus who they support - the result will be more accurate prediction [1] This article mentions "complacency" and "dejectedness" which are so sad to me and so prevalent among people under 40 I work in politics and hear online: why vote it doesn't matter, all politicians are bought for corporate stooges there are no differences between R and D. There are valid critiques on these issues, but from my perspective this attitude is a cancer which benefits a conservative minority.

dillondoyle 5y ago
I had also written this longer bit but felt more political, and less political science, then top comment so separated it. Would be hard to build into this model, but it would be interesting to see how powerful self reinforcing voter suppression has been in driving this anti-turnout group bias. The more they suppress the vote and play games the more people feel it's rigged and don't participate. Social media both amplifies and provides a platform for campaigns to weaponize. Deliberately targeting voters on FB to enforce messages of black complacency - using BLM as 'dejectedness' and 'complacency' of no change so that their vote doesn't matter. [2,3]. Lots of instances of targeting black and brown voters with calls giving wrong info on when or how to vote [4]. Russia copied this race baiting and they also targeted conservatives [5]. This past election saw targeted Hispanic voters, having candidates change their names in Florida to confuse the ballot. I can't find a quick source but one of these spoiler candidates even shaved their head lol to have a more similar look so far as I can remember. To be fair there is also a history of similar racist push polling by Dems in the south during primaries too but the overwhelming suppression of voters is perpetrated by conservatives. [1] https://theconversation.com/election-polls-are-more-accurate-if-they-ask-participants-how-others-will-vote-150121 https://theconversation.com/election-polls-are-more-accurate... [2] https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-inval... [3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/09/28/trump-election-campaign-voter-suppression-black-americans-2016/3567588001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/09/28/trump-electio... [4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/03/robocall-election-day/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/03/robocal... [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49987657 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49987657
netizen-936824 5y ago
Are US democrats actually progressive? Why would I support any politician when the available choices do not line up with my views and desires in almost any fashion
- amalcon 5y ago
  Because the available choices change their platforms in response to the voting public to some degree. By not voting, you send the message that they don't need to care what you want, since you don't vote. It's the same reason that it's so hard to get permission to build new housing in some places: the people who would most directly benefit don't vote (because they don't live there yet).
  - netizen-936824 5y ago
    There's no way for me to give them feedback and tell them their views are shite by voting That doesn't make sense, votes are binary and do not contain any other information
    - dillondoyle 5y ago
      The feedback is you win or you loose. If you don't like someone vote for their opponent. Or a 3rd party if you really want. most of the politicians I work with will gladly change their positions on issues based on election results and polling. Gay marriage is a great and extreme recent example.
    - netizen-936824 5y ago
      To add to this point, voting for someone I don't support seems (from my perspective) to send a message that I do agree with them and support their views, even if I think they're just slightly less shitty than the other option
      - amalcon 5y ago
        Is that a better or worse message than "You don't need to care what I think"? If you think it's significantly worse, then fine, we disagree on that premise. If you think it's equal or better, then not showing up seems like an inefficient use of a rare resource (your vote).
golemiprague 5y ago
Why it benefits a conservative "minority" and why it is problematic? If people don't vote to either side how does it benefit one side more than the other and even if it does why is it a problem? Some side win at the end anyway and since those people don't care why would it matter which side won?
deburo 5y ago
I don't know why you say conservative minority. I'd argue that it benefits whoever the majority is. In Quebec, Canada, it's the liberal party. A blend of progressives and conservatives, but it seems to me they are more progressive than not. Imagine voting for conservatives here during the federal elections, when you know that the province just doesn't like conversatives that much. They only have a chance when the liberals get the people very mad. In the USA, I think there're plenty of conservatives still, I wouldn't call them a minority.
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  I'm trying to make a point similar to what the article said. At least to my understanding. that in this model the majority (liberal leaning) feel like their vote doesn't count or doesn't matter since they are in the majority they feel safe which is amplified by group dynamics, therefore they don't vote as much. while on the other hand the minority feels the opposite so vote more as the underdog. That benefits the minority. It's in their first sentence "resulting in the election of politicians who do not represent the preferences of the electorate as a whole."
- garmaine 5y ago
  By conservative he meant (edit: I thought he meant...) maintains-the-status-quo, which in modern politics is neither a Liberal/Conservative nor Democrat/Republic issue. Elites and bought-and-paid-for political hacks on both sides are "conservative" in that sense. I prefer to use a different term, since that only invites confusion.
sjg007 5y ago
People don't vote until the issues start impacting them. This typically happens when you have kids in school, lose a job, buy a house etc...

dillondoyle 5y ago

I had also written this longer bit but felt more political, and less political science, then top comment so separated it. Would be hard to build into this model, but it would be interesting to see how powerful self reinforcing voter suppression has been in driving this anti-turnout group bias. The more they suppress the vote and play games the more people feel it's rigged and don't participate. Social media both amplifies and provides a platform for campaigns to weaponize. Deliberately targeting voters on FB to enforce messages of black complacency - using BLM as 'dejectedness' and 'complacency' of no change so that their vote doesn't matter. [2,3]. Lots of instances of targeting black and brown voters with calls giving wrong info on when or how to vote [4]. Russia copied this race baiting and they also targeted conservatives [5]. This past election saw targeted Hispanic voters, having candidates change their names in Florida to confuse the ballot. I can't find a quick source but one of these spoiler candidates even shaved their head lol to have a more similar look so far as I can remember. To be fair there is also a history of similar racist push polling by Dems in the south during primaries too but the overwhelming suppression of voters is perpetrated by conservatives. [1] https://theconversation.com/election-polls-are-more-accurate-if-they-ask-participants-how-others-will-vote-150121 https://theconversation.com/election-polls-are-more-accurate... [2] https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-inval... [3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/09/28/trump-election-campaign-voter-suppression-black-americans-2016/3567588001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/09/28/trump-electio... [4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/03/robocall-election-day/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/03/robocal... [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49987657 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49987657

netizen-936824 5y ago

Are US democrats actually progressive? Why would I support any politician when the available choices do not line up with my views and desires in almost any fashion

amalcon 5y ago
Because the available choices change their platforms in response to the voting public to some degree. By not voting, you send the message that they don't need to care what you want, since you don't vote. It's the same reason that it's so hard to get permission to build new housing in some places: the people who would most directly benefit don't vote (because they don't live there yet).
- netizen-936824 5y ago
  There's no way for me to give them feedback and tell them their views are shite by voting That doesn't make sense, votes are binary and do not contain any other information
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    The feedback is you win or you loose. If you don't like someone vote for their opponent. Or a 3rd party if you really want. most of the politicians I work with will gladly change their positions on issues based on election results and polling. Gay marriage is a great and extreme recent example.
  - netizen-936824 5y ago
    To add to this point, voting for someone I don't support seems (from my perspective) to send a message that I do agree with them and support their views, even if I think they're just slightly less shitty than the other option
    - amalcon 5y ago
      Is that a better or worse message than "You don't need to care what I think"? If you think it's significantly worse, then fine, we disagree on that premise. If you think it's equal or better, then not showing up seems like an inefficient use of a rare resource (your vote).

golemiprague 5y ago

Why it benefits a conservative "minority" and why it is problematic? If people don't vote to either side how does it benefit one side more than the other and even if it does why is it a problem? Some side win at the end anyway and since those people don't care why would it matter which side won?

deburo 5y ago

I don't know why you say conservative minority. I'd argue that it benefits whoever the majority is. In Quebec, Canada, it's the liberal party. A blend of progressives and conservatives, but it seems to me they are more progressive than not. Imagine voting for conservatives here during the federal elections, when you know that the province just doesn't like conversatives that much. They only have a chance when the liberals get the people very mad. In the USA, I think there're plenty of conservatives still, I wouldn't call them a minority.

dillondoyle 5y ago
I'm trying to make a point similar to what the article said. At least to my understanding. that in this model the majority (liberal leaning) feel like their vote doesn't count or doesn't matter since they are in the majority they feel safe which is amplified by group dynamics, therefore they don't vote as much. while on the other hand the minority feels the opposite so vote more as the underdog. That benefits the minority. It's in their first sentence "resulting in the election of politicians who do not represent the preferences of the electorate as a whole."
garmaine 5y ago
By conservative he meant (edit: I thought he meant...) maintains-the-status-quo, which in modern politics is neither a Liberal/Conservative nor Democrat/Republic issue. Elites and bought-and-paid-for political hacks on both sides are "conservative" in that sense. I prefer to use a different term, since that only invites confusion.

sjg007 5y ago

People don't vote until the issues start impacting them. This typically happens when you have kids in school, lose a job, buy a house etc...