3 ms·
> a [50%] probability research-related leak for the current pandemic (simply calling this 50% for this post's purposes because nobody knows and probabilities ar
by 908B64B197 5y ago
> a [50%] probability research-related leak for the current pandemic (simply calling this 50% for this post's purposes because nobody knows and probabilities are difficult to weigh absent more data)
Or when a certain country applies pressure to other countries to dismiss the idea as "racism" while destroying evidence for international neutral investigators to shed light on what really happened.
- imwillofficial 5y agoLet’s just table this one. It’s too hot for HN and peaceful discourse.
- 908B64B197 5y agoThat's also the CCP's opinion!
- Joker_vD 5y agoA frequentist is shown a coin and is asked what's the probability it will land on heads. Frequentist: "How the hell should I know?" The coin is then flipped 10000 times, and it lands on heads exactly 5000 times. Frequentist: "Definitely not 50%, the coin's gotta be biased". A bayesian is shown a coin and is asked what's the probability it will land on heads. Bayesian: "It's 50%!" The coin is then flipped 10000 times, and it lands on heads exactly 5000 times. Bayesian: "It's 50%!" This two-strawmen thought experiment clearly demonstrates the superiority of the Bayesian approach in learning useful information from the real-world observations.