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Electric cars are fantastic for many use profiles. Round-the-town trips and commutes with pauses in between. I'm sure they'll get better for longer range stuff

Electric cars are fantastic for many use profiles. Round-the-town trips and commutes with pauses in between. I'm sure they'll get better for longer range stuff and that will be part of the farther future -- but if you're making regular runs over a certain range, they'll cost you in terms of time and calculation. This is not at all hypothetical, either. I know EV drivers who have to either rule out or carefully manage some activities for this reason, and it's true whether you've got a SmartCar or a Tesla. What's still hypothetical is that EVs are going to meet everyone's needs anytime soon, and it's only reasonable to suppose it'll stay that way until someone figures out battery swap or petro-fillup charge speed. Hybrids may not be the future future, but they're between here and there.

KennyBlanken 5y ago
The issue isn't whether hybrids have some use cases, it's that Toyota is actively fighting EV adoption and trying to teach kids that EVs are evil, bad for the environment, etc and hybrids are cool/better. Simply because Toyota has been caught off-guard big time by how fast the EV market has moved, and now they're left holding a very wet, cold blanket that is hybrid technology. EVs will meet most everyone's needs, whether it's a bike, motorcycle, car, or van/light truck. Wright's Law has held for EVs and batteries, and very soon EVs are going to be cheaper than ICE cars. Just the last week or two on HN alone there have been articles about how battery prices are continuing to plunge. Capacity/density improvements are slower, but already many EVs have nearly the same range as a lot of ICE car equivalents. For example, plenty of cars have about 300mi range, and 250 mile range EVs are now commonplace. Given they're the most expensive part of an EV and there are already numerous EVs on the market that are at least within spitting distance of ICE equivalents - in a few years EVs are going to be eating ICE cars for lunch price-wise. They're mechanically simpler, lower maintenance needs, etc. Solar keeps getting cheaper, wind keeps getting cheaper too. In the US, +40% of the installed electric generating capacity this year was solar and wind. The installed capacity last year was equal to something like twenty nuclear power plants. Liquid iron-based batteries already being sold...and are safe, simple, and cheap as hell to make and scale well all the way from "household" to "grid substation" levels which is the last hurdle for us going to significantly more renewable energy technologies. I could see in ten years having an iron-based battery in my basement or in a little shed behind the house, my roof covered in solar panels, and an electric bicycle and car in my garage. Maybe a co-generation furnace (sterling engine generator that also supplies hot water for heating and bathing) as a backup...but quite possibly no grid connection at all.
- wwweston 5y ago
  > Capacity/density improvements are slower, but already many EVs have nearly the same range as a lot of ICE car equivalents. Correct. But what they don't have is competitive re-fueling time. You end up with full-range refractory periods for EVs around an order of magnitude larger than ICEs or hybrids. That represents a time and logistical overhead cost that ICE/hybrid drivers don't have to pay. > Toyota has been caught off-guard big time by how fast the EV market has moved, and now they're left holding a very wet, cold blanket that is hybrid technology. Toyota is two decades past the point where they were able to make full EVs[0] and had over a decade on which they were able to investigate and refine them. As tempting as this is to turn this into narrative of the bold visionaries who knew to look to an EV future vs entrenched special interests who only have their tepid hybrids to hold onto, the facts tell a different story in terms of fundamental capability. If Toyota is making a bet on hybrids, they have a reason that goes beyond their limits as a company. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV

KennyBlanken 5y ago

The issue isn't whether hybrids have some use cases, it's that Toyota is actively fighting EV adoption and trying to teach kids that EVs are evil, bad for the environment, etc and hybrids are cool/better. Simply because Toyota has been caught off-guard big time by how fast the EV market has moved, and now they're left holding a very wet, cold blanket that is hybrid technology. EVs will meet most everyone's needs, whether it's a bike, motorcycle, car, or van/light truck. Wright's Law has held for EVs and batteries, and very soon EVs are going to be cheaper than ICE cars. Just the last week or two on HN alone there have been articles about how battery prices are continuing to plunge. Capacity/density improvements are slower, but already many EVs have nearly the same range as a lot of ICE car equivalents. For example, plenty of cars have about 300mi range, and 250 mile range EVs are now commonplace. Given they're the most expensive part of an EV and there are already numerous EVs on the market that are at least within spitting distance of ICE equivalents - in a few years EVs are going to be eating ICE cars for lunch price-wise. They're mechanically simpler, lower maintenance needs, etc. Solar keeps getting cheaper, wind keeps getting cheaper too. In the US, +40% of the installed electric generating capacity this year was solar and wind. The installed capacity last year was equal to something like twenty nuclear power plants. Liquid iron-based batteries already being sold...and are safe, simple, and cheap as hell to make and scale well all the way from "household" to "grid substation" levels which is the last hurdle for us going to significantly more renewable energy technologies. I could see in ten years having an iron-based battery in my basement or in a little shed behind the house, my roof covered in solar panels, and an electric bicycle and car in my garage. Maybe a co-generation furnace (sterling engine generator that also supplies hot water for heating and bathing) as a backup...but quite possibly no grid connection at all.

wwweston 5y ago
> Capacity/density improvements are slower, but already many EVs have nearly the same range as a lot of ICE car equivalents. Correct. But what they don't have is competitive re-fueling time. You end up with full-range refractory periods for EVs around an order of magnitude larger than ICEs or hybrids. That represents a time and logistical overhead cost that ICE/hybrid drivers don't have to pay. > Toyota has been caught off-guard big time by how fast the EV market has moved, and now they're left holding a very wet, cold blanket that is hybrid technology. Toyota is two decades past the point where they were able to make full EVs[0] and had over a decade on which they were able to investigate and refine them. As tempting as this is to turn this into narrative of the bold visionaries who knew to look to an EV future vs entrenched special interests who only have their tepid hybrids to hold onto, the facts tell a different story in terms of fundamental capability. If Toyota is making a bet on hybrids, they have a reason that goes beyond their limits as a company. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV