3 ms·

I can think of many actually, but this is not my field of expertise so I don't want to jump on erroneous conclusions and I want to pay close attention to what I

I can think of many actually, but this is not my field of expertise so I don't want to jump on erroneous conclusions and I want to pay close attention to what I say, other than get feedback from others that for sure know a lot more than me. Just to get things straight, I am in no way saying that vaccines are not effective, there is strong evidence that indicates the contrary. I was responding to a user who claimed that the more covid goes around, the more it mutates, and as far as I understand it's what viruses do and therefore is a correct statement. I then linked this study and cautiously pointed out that it is "disputed", which may still be the wrong term in that case or I was erroneously giving too much credit to the paper itself. You then point out that the study highlights the Delta variant peak when dealing with the Israel data, and I could agree on that. What the study is trying to highlight, as far as I can tell, is not to undervalue *vaccination which has strong evidence ww to greatly lower hospitalisation and death risk from covid infection*, but it instead tries to tell that even in vastly vaccinated communities there are a lot of cases and they can't be distinguished from those in communities with lower vaccination rate. So my argument was: if cases are rising in largely vaccinated communities, the virus will inevitably mutate in those communities too and it is not a pattern only related to third world countries with low vaccination rates.

YZF 5y ago
I don't think the study shows that either. Generally the bulk of the cases and especially hospitalizations and deaths have been amongst unvaccinated. When you have 40% of a country unvaccinated and when those 40% tend to form social groups and closer connections you can't really look at the country as a whole. At any rate, the methodology of the paper is just way off. If you truly wanted to understand the correlation between vaccination and infection rates you need to try to control for other factors. That is just experiment design 101. If you control for nothing while there are other significant factors then you get nothing. If the paper is saying "there can be high covid rates with 60%-70% vaccine coverage and the delta variants" then sure, but also duh.

YZF 5y ago

I don't think the study shows that either. Generally the bulk of the cases and especially hospitalizations and deaths have been amongst unvaccinated. When you have 40% of a country unvaccinated and when those 40% tend to form social groups and closer connections you can't really look at the country as a whole. At any rate, the methodology of the paper is just way off. If you truly wanted to understand the correlation between vaccination and infection rates you need to try to control for other factors. That is just experiment design 101. If you control for nothing while there are other significant factors then you get nothing. If the paper is saying "there can be high covid rates with 60%-70% vaccine coverage and the delta variants" then sure, but also duh.