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> Based on what I know about humans, the probability this happens approaches 1 as time moves forward. Wouldn’t it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to exp

> Based on what I know about humans, the probability this happens approaches 1 as time moves forward. Wouldn’t it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother earth? It’d be enormously uncomfortable for Mars adapted people to spend any time on earth. So if it’s neither economic to exploit earth resources nor would it be possible to enjoy a conquered earth, why ever bother? I guess if it’s possible for a 007 style mad scientist scenario to emerge it approaches 1 given enough time, however it could be so much time that the sun blows up or humanity spreads to other stars.

iso1210 5y ago
And that mad scientist could just as easilly be from Earth as from Mars. Once you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads on escape velocity, you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads at earth. While such an individual could target Mars and Earth, the implication of the technology level of a self sustaining mars base is that mankind will be spread throughout the solarsystem (at least the asteroids, venus clouds, mars, moon and earth), and at that stage wiping out the species becomes even harder.
- post_from_work 5y ago
  >>>Once you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads on escape velocity, you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads at earth. An important plot point in Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" https://www.amazon.com/Moon-Is-Harsh-Mistress-audiobook/dp/B000JJRW80 https://www.amazon.com/Moon-Is-Harsh-Mistress-audiobook/dp/B...
  - earleybird 5y ago
    Not forgetting "Mike" :-)
ModernMech 5y ago
> Wouldn’t it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother earth? Depends on the resource. If they want milk and chicken for example, it might be better to get that from Earth. > It’d be enormously uncomfortable for Mars adapted people to spend any time on earth. They could breed a race of human slaves to work on Earth. > I guess if it’s possible for a 007 style mad scientist scenario I’m thinking more along the lines of a Martian Hitler scenario.
- qwytw 5y ago
  > They could breed a race of human slaves to work on Earth. Wouldn't just buying stuff they need from Earth be much cheaper than exterminating all people on Earth and then repopulated with some new genetically engineered human species?
  - ModernMech 5y ago
    I didn’t say anything about genetic engineering, they can be regular humans. Moreover, wars and conquest are not rational endeavors that are undertaken after a careful cost/benefit analysis. WWII wasn’t exactly cost effective for anyone who started that war. Anyway, the way I see it playing out would be that Earth, realizing they are Mars’ one and only lifeline, will do its best to squeeze Martians for everything they’ve got. It won’t be a mutually beneficial trading relationship between peer nation/planets, but an exploitive one where one party has much more power than the other. Probably a lot like Africa’s place in the world. Unfair and exploitive deals will be cut that reflect the power imbalance, which will brew resentment and envy, and ultimately conflict. This is how you start irrational wars.
- whelming_wave 5y ago
  What’s the probability that Martian-Terran humans will get frustrated by sending off Earth’s vast and plentiful resources in 100 - 200 years, and they wage open nuclear and biological war on Mars to wipe out all Martian humans?
- nyokodo 5y ago
  > If they want milk and chicken for example, it might be better to get that from Earth. If we have a self-sustaining Mars colony as a given then wouldn’t it be more likely they have at least artificial substitutes for such things? I find it hard to believe we’d have total war erupting over what would essentially be artisanal foods. This is especially true if they’d only get delivery once every 26 months or so, and, if they were advanced enough that the relative position of the planets were no object then they’re even less likely to need anything Earth had or for Earth to have a monopoly on anything worth waging total war over. > I’m thinking more along the lines of a Martian Hitler scenario. Hitler got started in his conquests by securing land and resources lost or unavailable to Germany. What would motivate a Hitler in a self-sustaining Mars colony?
HWR_14 5y ago
>Wouldn’t it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother earth There are lots of available resources on earth in abundance that aren't on asteroids. But yeah, they wouldn't be after metals

iso1210 5y ago

And that mad scientist could just as easilly be from Earth as from Mars. Once you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads on escape velocity, you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads at earth. While such an individual could target Mars and Earth, the implication of the technology level of a self sustaining mars base is that mankind will be spread throughout the solarsystem (at least the asteroids, venus clouds, mars, moon and earth), and at that stage wiping out the species becomes even harder.

post_from_work 5y ago
>>>Once you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads on escape velocity, you have the ability for individuals to launch multi ton payloads at earth. An important plot point in Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" https://www.amazon.com/Moon-Is-Harsh-Mistress-audiobook/dp/B000JJRW80 https://www.amazon.com/Moon-Is-Harsh-Mistress-audiobook/dp/B...
- earleybird 5y ago
  Not forgetting "Mike" :-)

ModernMech 5y ago

> Wouldn’t it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother earth? Depends on the resource. If they want milk and chicken for example, it might be better to get that from Earth. > It’d be enormously uncomfortable for Mars adapted people to spend any time on earth. They could breed a race of human slaves to work on Earth. > I guess if it’s possible for a 007 style mad scientist scenario I’m thinking more along the lines of a Martian Hitler scenario.

qwytw 5y ago
> They could breed a race of human slaves to work on Earth. Wouldn't just buying stuff they need from Earth be much cheaper than exterminating all people on Earth and then repopulated with some new genetically engineered human species?
- ModernMech 5y ago
  I didn’t say anything about genetic engineering, they can be regular humans. Moreover, wars and conquest are not rational endeavors that are undertaken after a careful cost/benefit analysis. WWII wasn’t exactly cost effective for anyone who started that war. Anyway, the way I see it playing out would be that Earth, realizing they are Mars’ one and only lifeline, will do its best to squeeze Martians for everything they’ve got. It won’t be a mutually beneficial trading relationship between peer nation/planets, but an exploitive one where one party has much more power than the other. Probably a lot like Africa’s place in the world. Unfair and exploitive deals will be cut that reflect the power imbalance, which will brew resentment and envy, and ultimately conflict. This is how you start irrational wars.
whelming_wave 5y ago
What’s the probability that Martian-Terran humans will get frustrated by sending off Earth’s vast and plentiful resources in 100 - 200 years, and they wage open nuclear and biological war on Mars to wipe out all Martian humans?
nyokodo 5y ago
> If they want milk and chicken for example, it might be better to get that from Earth. If we have a self-sustaining Mars colony as a given then wouldn’t it be more likely they have at least artificial substitutes for such things? I find it hard to believe we’d have total war erupting over what would essentially be artisanal foods. This is especially true if they’d only get delivery once every 26 months or so, and, if they were advanced enough that the relative position of the planets were no object then they’re even less likely to need anything Earth had or for Earth to have a monopoly on anything worth waging total war over. > I’m thinking more along the lines of a Martian Hitler scenario. Hitler got started in his conquests by securing land and resources lost or unavailable to Germany. What would motivate a Hitler in a self-sustaining Mars colony?

HWR_14 5y ago

>Wouldn’t it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother earth There are lots of available resources on earth in abundance that aren't on asteroids. But yeah, they wouldn't be after metals