4 ms·

You only test positive on PCR after a few days (at least for the Delta variant). So the infections can't really have happened on the plane, but before. And at t

You only test positive on PCR after a few days (at least for the Delta variant). So the infections can't really have happened on the plane, but before. And at that point 10% would be unbelievably high if the people on the plane were all independent and not in previous contact. It's a bit hard to put this number into context though if you don't know anything about the passengers. It would be much more plausible if e.g. a large part of the passengers were in the same hotel before or something like that.

nostrademons 5y ago
Unless Omicron is different, which is possible and consistent with other evidence. It's spreading 500% faster than the original strain did; Delta was only 70% faster. The two asymptomatic Hong Kong patients both have sky-high viral loads. That's why this data is so alarming. Either you've got a 10%+ base rate in the population and they all skipped (or false-negative) a pre-boarding PCR test. Or Omicron spreads fast enough that it can infect 10% of a plane during a 12-hour flight and multiply enough to show up on a PCR test upon landing. Or the 61 cases knew each other beforehand (same hotel, same tour) and it's bad for that travel operator but better for public health, which is why they're trying to get the facts on that.
- spurgu 5y ago
  But, if it's actually true that symptoms are milder than those of Delta (which has been the indication), should we be embracing Omicron with open arms? Just hypothesizing here - it'll take a good while until we have actual useful data.