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The best (and only) thing I learned in high school statistics is that no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip has an equal chance of landing on head

The best (and only) thing I learned in high school statistics is that no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip has an equal chance of landing on heads or tails.

aj7 5y ago
That’s huge though.
GuB-42 5y ago
A fair coin. It is important because if you flip a coin 20 times and get 20 tails, there is probably something fishy with that coin and you probably should bet tails. If it is 100 out of 100 (or even 95 out of 100), there is effectively zero chance that the coin is fair. This can be modeled using Bayesian statistics. You start by assuming with a reasonably high probability that the coin is fair, then you revise your assumptions as you get more and more data. The general idea is: if a coin flip lands on tails for too many times, you should probably bet on tails. You shouldn't try that in casinos: games are seriously checked for fairness (of course, the rules make it so that the house has an edge). But in an informal setting, it can get you a small advantage.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  But the lesson isn't how to tell whether a coin is fair. The lesson is that in independent events such as coin flips, lottery draws, roulette or slot machine spins, rolls of the dice, etc., past outcomes don't predict future outcomes. If people understood this they would not spend hours at gaming tables and machines, because the odds (in favor of the house) are exactly the same for your 100th pull of the lever as they were for the first one, and the more you play the more likely it is that you lose, not win.
  - DarylZero 5y ago
    It's not based on a false understanding of math. It's based on the feeling they get (of anticipation or whatever). It's harder to cure a gambling addiction than just giving them math facts. They don't even accept the fact they're addicts. To accept it would feel bad so they don't have the bad feeling thoughts. This emotional stuff just doesn't yield to facts.

The best (and only) thing I learned in high school statistics is that no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip has an equal chance of landing on heads or tails.

aj7 5y ago

That’s huge though.

GuB-42 5y ago

A fair coin. It is important because if you flip a coin 20 times and get 20 tails, there is probably something fishy with that coin and you probably should bet tails. If it is 100 out of 100 (or even 95 out of 100), there is effectively zero chance that the coin is fair. This can be modeled using Bayesian statistics. You start by assuming with a reasonably high probability that the coin is fair, then you revise your assumptions as you get more and more data. The general idea is: if a coin flip lands on tails for too many times, you should probably bet on tails. You shouldn't try that in casinos: games are seriously checked for fairness (of course, the rules make it so that the house has an edge). But in an informal setting, it can get you a small advantage.

throwawayboise 5y ago
But the lesson isn't how to tell whether a coin is fair. The lesson is that in independent events such as coin flips, lottery draws, roulette or slot machine spins, rolls of the dice, etc., past outcomes don't predict future outcomes. If people understood this they would not spend hours at gaming tables and machines, because the odds (in favor of the house) are exactly the same for your 100th pull of the lever as they were for the first one, and the more you play the more likely it is that you lose, not win.
- DarylZero 5y ago
  It's not based on a false understanding of math. It's based on the feeling they get (of anticipation or whatever). It's harder to cure a gambling addiction than just giving them math facts. They don't even accept the fact they're addicts. To accept it would feel bad so they don't have the bad feeling thoughts. This emotional stuff just doesn't yield to facts.