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I took high school statistics. I don't think it really had the kind of effect on students that you're going for. Statistics like any math class was just anothe

I took high school statistics. I don't think it really had the kind of effect on students that you're going for. Statistics like any math class was just another pointless and imposed game of symbol manipulation, for most. Not something that affects how they see the world or how they process disinformation (which disables rational thinking by appeals to emotion, so rational capabilities aren't necessarily even the issue). Humans are naturally using statistical type reasoning all the time and are very good at it. But when it comes to things like in-group out-group consensus-forming conformity mechanisms, the whole point is they _overcome rationality_ for social cohesion. To follow rationality instead of the group, you have to leave the group, which is unthinkable, so your mind prevents you from thinking it long enough to change your mind, by emotional terminations.

newsbinator 5y ago
The best (and only) thing I learned in high school statistics is that no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip has an equal chance of landing on heads or tails.
- aj7 5y ago
  That’s huge though.
- GuB-42 5y ago
  A fair coin. It is important because if you flip a coin 20 times and get 20 tails, there is probably something fishy with that coin and you probably should bet tails. If it is 100 out of 100 (or even 95 out of 100), there is effectively zero chance that the coin is fair. This can be modeled using Bayesian statistics. You start by assuming with a reasonably high probability that the coin is fair, then you revise your assumptions as you get more and more data. The general idea is: if a coin flip lands on tails for too many times, you should probably bet on tails. You shouldn't try that in casinos: games are seriously checked for fairness (of course, the rules make it so that the house has an edge). But in an informal setting, it can get you a small advantage.
  - throwawayboise 5y ago
    But the lesson isn't how to tell whether a coin is fair. The lesson is that in independent events such as coin flips, lottery draws, roulette or slot machine spins, rolls of the dice, etc., past outcomes don't predict future outcomes. If people understood this they would not spend hours at gaming tables and machines, because the odds (in favor of the house) are exactly the same for your 100th pull of the lever as they were for the first one, and the more you play the more likely it is that you lose, not win.
    - DarylZero 5y ago
      It's not based on a false understanding of math. It's based on the feeling they get (of anticipation or whatever). It's harder to cure a gambling addiction than just giving them math facts. They don't even accept the fact they're addicts. To accept it would feel bad so they don't have the bad feeling thoughts. This emotional stuff just doesn't yield to facts.
bnralt 5y ago
That's been my observation as well. Feeding people more information or giving them more tools often doesn't change their minds, it just gives them more ways to argue a position that was decided upon by the beginning. This shouldn't be a surprise; almost no one who advocates these solutions thinks that it will change their own views on [HOT TOPIC OF THE DAY], but rather that that everyone else will come to agree with their own pre-determined position. Another solution might be convincing people to not pay attention to so many hot botton issues and not turn everything into a debate. A certain amount of detachment is probably more healthy for individuals and for the society.

newsbinator 5y ago

The best (and only) thing I learned in high school statistics is that no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip has an equal chance of landing on heads or tails.

aj7 5y ago
That’s huge though.
GuB-42 5y ago
A fair coin. It is important because if you flip a coin 20 times and get 20 tails, there is probably something fishy with that coin and you probably should bet tails. If it is 100 out of 100 (or even 95 out of 100), there is effectively zero chance that the coin is fair. This can be modeled using Bayesian statistics. You start by assuming with a reasonably high probability that the coin is fair, then you revise your assumptions as you get more and more data. The general idea is: if a coin flip lands on tails for too many times, you should probably bet on tails. You shouldn't try that in casinos: games are seriously checked for fairness (of course, the rules make it so that the house has an edge). But in an informal setting, it can get you a small advantage.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  But the lesson isn't how to tell whether a coin is fair. The lesson is that in independent events such as coin flips, lottery draws, roulette or slot machine spins, rolls of the dice, etc., past outcomes don't predict future outcomes. If people understood this they would not spend hours at gaming tables and machines, because the odds (in favor of the house) are exactly the same for your 100th pull of the lever as they were for the first one, and the more you play the more likely it is that you lose, not win.
  - DarylZero 5y ago
    It's not based on a false understanding of math. It's based on the feeling they get (of anticipation or whatever). It's harder to cure a gambling addiction than just giving them math facts. They don't even accept the fact they're addicts. To accept it would feel bad so they don't have the bad feeling thoughts. This emotional stuff just doesn't yield to facts.

bnralt 5y ago

That's been my observation as well. Feeding people more information or giving them more tools often doesn't change their minds, it just gives them more ways to argue a position that was decided upon by the beginning. This shouldn't be a surprise; almost no one who advocates these solutions thinks that it will change their own views on [HOT TOPIC OF THE DAY], but rather that that everyone else will come to agree with their own pre-determined position. Another solution might be convincing people to not pay attention to so many hot botton issues and not turn everything into a debate. A certain amount of detachment is probably more healthy for individuals and for the society.