5 ms·

An interesting thought experiment is, what's the correct public health response if it appears that Omicron is more contagious but less serious than Delta, and c

An interesting thought experiment is, what's the correct public health response if it appears that Omicron is more contagious but less serious than Delta, and catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain. I know I wouldn't want to be the public health people trying to wrestle with the pros and cons of response in this kind of setup, must be really tricky to get things even close to right.

t0mas88 5y ago
That's the big question. A theory that this already happened in Japan was posted here in the last few weeks.
auntienomen 5y ago
Interesting, but not especially relevant. Omicron has biologists worried because it appears to be different enough that it may be able to evade the immune defenses that we have to the existing SARS-Cov-2 strains. The thing they are afraid of is that you can catch both viruses, and get the disease twice.
PeterisP 5y ago
Those are big "ifs", and especially "catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain" seems a bit unlikely. Namely, if there's a mutated strain which is resistant to vaccines targeting the previous strain, then it also implies that it's likely that the immune response from one won't fit the other much, just as previously with different strains of flu allowing reinfection.
- rossdavidh 5y ago
  Could quite possibly be true, although the article presents very preliminary evidence that we do not have vaccine escape (or not complete, anyway).
- spurgu 5y ago
  I mean the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission/infection for Delta (or Alpha) either, it just makes the symptoms milder. Edit: For whomever downvoted, here you go: > Prior to the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases(22). However, the impact of vaccination on reducing transmission in the context of the more transmissible delta variant appears to be lower(23). https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-for-children-and-adolescents https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-o... And/or: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
graeme 5y ago
Your first statement is based on a misquote from a health official, and your second quote is false. If indeed there is some antibody evasion then you could catch both variants at once or sequentially.
- wussboy 5y ago
  It’s a thought experiment, not a factual statement.
rimliu 5y ago
How about this thought experiment: what if we had no PCR tests. We would not care about asymptomatic or mild cases.
- xanaxagoras 5y ago
  Soon we won't: https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert...
  - _djo_ 5y ago
    That’s not what that means. It’s just the withdrawal of PCR assays that can only detect SARS-CoV-2 in favour of newer assays that can detect both it and Influenza A/B.
    - xanaxagoras 5y ago
      Ah, last time I looked there were no other PCRs available. I see now a new EUA for Flu SC2.
- wussboy 5y ago
  I’ve wondered about this too. How many past pandemics has similar mutations? We have no idea. Maybe less. Maybe more.
  - dotnet00 5y ago
    In that way this pandemic is probably providing a treasure trove of data for calibrating models on how past diseases may have progressed.
- brokensegue 5y ago
  We would still worry because of their ability to spread to people more at risk
scruple 5y ago
I'm curious about this, too. I wonder, does a more mild variant mean a reduced risk of long-term complications?
rk06 5y ago
Even if Omicron is less serious than delta, we can't strictly consider it harmless. Nor can we rule out the possibility of a new deadlier variant created if Omicron keep spreading.
- raesene9 5y ago
  Yep exactly part of the problem, if such a thing occurred you'd be weighing off a short term apparent gain with a very real risk of it leading to more problems down the line.

t0mas88 5y ago

That's the big question. A theory that this already happened in Japan was posted here in the last few weeks.

auntienomen 5y ago

Interesting, but not especially relevant. Omicron has biologists worried because it appears to be different enough that it may be able to evade the immune defenses that we have to the existing SARS-Cov-2 strains. The thing they are afraid of is that you can catch both viruses, and get the disease twice.

PeterisP 5y ago

Those are big "ifs", and especially "catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain" seems a bit unlikely. Namely, if there's a mutated strain which is resistant to vaccines targeting the previous strain, then it also implies that it's likely that the immune response from one won't fit the other much, just as previously with different strains of flu allowing reinfection.

rossdavidh 5y ago
Could quite possibly be true, although the article presents very preliminary evidence that we do not have vaccine escape (or not complete, anyway).
spurgu 5y ago
I mean the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission/infection for Delta (or Alpha) either, it just makes the symptoms milder. Edit: For whomever downvoted, here you go: > Prior to the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases(22). However, the impact of vaccination on reducing transmission in the context of the more transmissible delta variant appears to be lower(23). https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-for-children-and-adolescents https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-o... And/or: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

graeme 5y ago

Your first statement is based on a misquote from a health official, and your second quote is false. If indeed there is some antibody evasion then you could catch both variants at once or sequentially.

wussboy 5y ago
It’s a thought experiment, not a factual statement.

rimliu 5y ago

How about this thought experiment: what if we had no PCR tests. We would not care about asymptomatic or mild cases.

xanaxagoras 5y ago
Soon we won't: https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert...
- _djo_ 5y ago
  That’s not what that means. It’s just the withdrawal of PCR assays that can only detect SARS-CoV-2 in favour of newer assays that can detect both it and Influenza A/B.
  - xanaxagoras 5y ago
    Ah, last time I looked there were no other PCRs available. I see now a new EUA for Flu SC2.
wussboy 5y ago
I’ve wondered about this too. How many past pandemics has similar mutations? We have no idea. Maybe less. Maybe more.
- dotnet00 5y ago
  In that way this pandemic is probably providing a treasure trove of data for calibrating models on how past diseases may have progressed.
brokensegue 5y ago
We would still worry because of their ability to spread to people more at risk

scruple 5y ago

I'm curious about this, too. I wonder, does a more mild variant mean a reduced risk of long-term complications?

rk06 5y ago

Even if Omicron is less serious than delta, we can't strictly consider it harmless. Nor can we rule out the possibility of a new deadlier variant created if Omicron keep spreading.

raesene9 5y ago
Yep exactly part of the problem, if such a thing occurred you'd be weighing off a short term apparent gain with a very real risk of it leading to more problems down the line.