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Here is two interesting articles from The Economist where they analyse the success of Hamilton[1] and where they see if you could have predicted the success of

Here is two interesting articles from The Economist where they analyse the success of Hamilton[1] and where they see if you could have predicted the success of Hamilton[2] and here is a in depth post on the data and methodology of the model they created and used[3] [1]https://www.economist.com/business/2016/06/16/no-business-like-show-business https://www.economist.com/business/2016/06/16/no-business-li... Archive of the first Article https://archive.md/L3xzV https://archive.md/L3xzV [2]https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2016/06/15/predicting-the-success-of-hamilton https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2016/06/15/... Archive of the second Article https://archive.md/oylse https://archive.md/oylse [3]http://www.economist.com/broadway-business http://www.economist.com/broadway-business Archive https://archive.md/5HUpH https://archive.md/5HUpH

B1FF_PSUVM 5y ago
> could have predicted the success Some wag, noting how economists were better at explaining the past, remarked they had successfully predicted nine out of the last five crises ...
- tsimionescu 5y ago
  There's also an observation that economists are the people most able to tell you how long your nails will be in 5 years assuming you never cut them.
dehrmann 5y ago
The main sign it was going to be a success was a performance Lin-Manuel Miranda did at the White House. Listen for where the laughs are; they're not there when you see it on Broadway (and I assume The Public Theater). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNFf7nMIGnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNFf7nMIGnE That's important because the premise is high school cringy. Let's take a historical story and set it to rap! If it wasn't so well-executed, it would have come off as painfully gimmicky.
- anm89 5y ago
  I would say the general perception is that it was extremely cringey. Obviously they found a large enough audience that disagreed but I don't think they were a majority. Obviously anecdotal.
  - gwern 5y ago
    Are you sure the target audience doesn't also find it cringey now? I noticed Hamilton seemed to drop out of the zeitgeist almost overnight at some point. It wasn't as precipitous as Game of Thrones's fall, perhaps, but it was fast. Can you imagine the Obamas saying Hamilton is the “best piece of art in any form that I have ever seen in my life” (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/theater/hamilton-takes-a-road-trip-to-the-white-house.html https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/theater/hamilton-takes-a-...) today? Seems unlikely.
    - dehrmann 5y ago
      It certainly plays differently post George Floyd. I'm not sure how long it took for Rent to feel cringy, but the premise of 20-somethings trying their hardest to avoid getting jobs so they can continue being artists also didn't age well.
    - anm89 5y ago
      Yeah I would say I had the same perception. I think things that get that popular that quick almost have to go through the uncool downside of that curve. Also, I'm star struck. I love your blog!
  - ethagknight 5y ago
    >>General perception of extremely cringey I’ll offer a counterpoint. I’ve seen it once live and soon going to see it twice next time it comes to town in a few months. I can’t wait, I’m giddy. A whole lot of people out there clearly are too. I totally get that some people literally can’t understand rap music words. If you are hard of hearing and aren’t familiar with the story, you are totally lost in the audience (ESPECIALLY as the actors change characters after intermission) In my experience there’s a group of annoying “New Yorkers” (aka people who identify as New Yorkers, as in they lived there during an internship in college or spent a couple years “working in finance” finding themselves before moving back to Tupelo) who love to shit on anyone who recently saw Hamilton; they roll their eyes and say “oh yes yes I saw the original cast back in 2015, it was cute…” Calling Hamilton extremely cringey sounds like signaling or sneetching vs. an honest critique of the show. It’s a thing I’ve noticed repeatedly and this comment fits that bill, and I don’t know why it bothers me more than simply saying “I didn’t care for it” but it does. Hamilton is a phenomenal work of art, the White House performance is a peek at creative genius in process, my kids have probably watched the Disney+ production 100 times and know all the words to (almost ;) ) every song and therefore know more about that specific era of American history than I did until I was much older. Back to the TFA, I think it was such a runaway success compared to other shows because it feels like an intensely personal work of art and not just “let’s copy paste and bang out another ALW formula show.” There’s no shortage of misguided efforts at for-profit art, and people scratch their heads wondering why their absurdist introspection of (fill in the blank) or the kinkade-y reboot of some hit in another format didn’t rake in a billion dollars. The soundtrack is light years more listenable than most other musicals; that’s very subjective but I think it’s a significant part. I appreciate the overarching message of Hamilton, power of the pen, the hope for the future, the need to take smart action, the ability to recover from mistakes, and the inability to recover from letting pride override rational decision making. There’s just so much there. One more thought on the overall economics of a show not discussed in the article: since shows are largely seen by tourists, as a tourist, there’s more to the cost of the show than the ticket itself. The opportunity cost is the most expensive part, and only devoted fans of theater are going to see more than 1-2 shows on a tourist visit to NYC. If I’m going to see a show, it better be good, and I have little interest in risking a precious afternoon in NYC on a swing-and-a-miss. As such, it makes me wonder if a second line touring circuit is possible for very small shows to get exposure in other smaller cities (any other city besides NYC). It would almost have to be a very intensive 4-5 performances a day for 3-5 days in a city, with a brief but panoramic advert blitz at the local level. The equivalent of a small up and coming music group refining their grind and performance at college bars across the country before hitting it big. Digital projection of sets, keeping a deep bench of local stand ins available as needed, relatively standardized audio production requirements, A reciprocal agreement amongst a network of theaters, with a special deal with a nearby hotel in each market could take a lot of the load and cost off. Maybe it already exists. (some revisions/edits throughout)

B1FF_PSUVM 5y ago

> could have predicted the success Some wag, noting how economists were better at explaining the past, remarked they had successfully predicted nine out of the last five crises ...

tsimionescu 5y ago
There's also an observation that economists are the people most able to tell you how long your nails will be in 5 years assuming you never cut them.

dehrmann 5y ago

The main sign it was going to be a success was a performance Lin-Manuel Miranda did at the White House. Listen for where the laughs are; they're not there when you see it on Broadway (and I assume The Public Theater). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNFf7nMIGnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNFf7nMIGnE That's important because the premise is high school cringy. Let's take a historical story and set it to rap! If it wasn't so well-executed, it would have come off as painfully gimmicky.

anm89 5y ago
I would say the general perception is that it was extremely cringey. Obviously they found a large enough audience that disagreed but I don't think they were a majority. Obviously anecdotal.
- gwern 5y ago
  Are you sure the target audience doesn't also find it cringey now? I noticed Hamilton seemed to drop out of the zeitgeist almost overnight at some point. It wasn't as precipitous as Game of Thrones's fall, perhaps, but it was fast. Can you imagine the Obamas saying Hamilton is the “best piece of art in any form that I have ever seen in my life” (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/theater/hamilton-takes-a-road-trip-to-the-white-house.html https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/theater/hamilton-takes-a-...) today? Seems unlikely.
  - dehrmann 5y ago
    It certainly plays differently post George Floyd. I'm not sure how long it took for Rent to feel cringy, but the premise of 20-somethings trying their hardest to avoid getting jobs so they can continue being artists also didn't age well.
  - anm89 5y ago
    Yeah I would say I had the same perception. I think things that get that popular that quick almost have to go through the uncool downside of that curve. Also, I'm star struck. I love your blog!
- ethagknight 5y ago
  >>General perception of extremely cringey I’ll offer a counterpoint. I’ve seen it once live and soon going to see it twice next time it comes to town in a few months. I can’t wait, I’m giddy. A whole lot of people out there clearly are too. I totally get that some people literally can’t understand rap music words. If you are hard of hearing and aren’t familiar with the story, you are totally lost in the audience (ESPECIALLY as the actors change characters after intermission) In my experience there’s a group of annoying “New Yorkers” (aka people who identify as New Yorkers, as in they lived there during an internship in college or spent a couple years “working in finance” finding themselves before moving back to Tupelo) who love to shit on anyone who recently saw Hamilton; they roll their eyes and say “oh yes yes I saw the original cast back in 2015, it was cute…” Calling Hamilton extremely cringey sounds like signaling or sneetching vs. an honest critique of the show. It’s a thing I’ve noticed repeatedly and this comment fits that bill, and I don’t know why it bothers me more than simply saying “I didn’t care for it” but it does. Hamilton is a phenomenal work of art, the White House performance is a peek at creative genius in process, my kids have probably watched the Disney+ production 100 times and know all the words to (almost ;) ) every song and therefore know more about that specific era of American history than I did until I was much older. Back to the TFA, I think it was such a runaway success compared to other shows because it feels like an intensely personal work of art and not just “let’s copy paste and bang out another ALW formula show.” There’s no shortage of misguided efforts at for-profit art, and people scratch their heads wondering why their absurdist introspection of (fill in the blank) or the kinkade-y reboot of some hit in another format didn’t rake in a billion dollars. The soundtrack is light years more listenable than most other musicals; that’s very subjective but I think it’s a significant part. I appreciate the overarching message of Hamilton, power of the pen, the hope for the future, the need to take smart action, the ability to recover from mistakes, and the inability to recover from letting pride override rational decision making. There’s just so much there. One more thought on the overall economics of a show not discussed in the article: since shows are largely seen by tourists, as a tourist, there’s more to the cost of the show than the ticket itself. The opportunity cost is the most expensive part, and only devoted fans of theater are going to see more than 1-2 shows on a tourist visit to NYC. If I’m going to see a show, it better be good, and I have little interest in risking a precious afternoon in NYC on a swing-and-a-miss. As such, it makes me wonder if a second line touring circuit is possible for very small shows to get exposure in other smaller cities (any other city besides NYC). It would almost have to be a very intensive 4-5 performances a day for 3-5 days in a city, with a brief but panoramic advert blitz at the local level. The equivalent of a small up and coming music group refining their grind and performance at college bars across the country before hitting it big. Digital projection of sets, keeping a deep bench of local stand ins available as needed, relatively standardized audio production requirements, A reciprocal agreement amongst a network of theaters, with a special deal with a nearby hotel in each market could take a lot of the load and cost off. Maybe it already exists. (some revisions/edits throughout)