4 ms·

Not knowing what makes a hit vs a flop seems... strange. Familiar actors and stories might help, but also things that are clever and artistically memorable (e.

Not knowing what makes a hit vs a flop seems... strange. Familiar actors and stories might help, but also things that are clever and artistically memorable (e.g. Hamilton) have got to help. I'd also be interested to know how many shows start off-Broadway or off-off-Broadway (100-500 seats and below 100 seats as per this article), and move up to the bigger theatres: test a show in a smaller venue, see if people/critics talk about it, let supply build and keep production costs capped. Some might argue - especially for musicals - that you can't produce "good" shows without much less in the way of production costs, but I think that could be a fallacy. I've watched enough shows and plays to know when one has good "bones" that could be enhanced with bigger sets, better actors, etc. and which are going to die no matter what you do. Hamilton would have been getting talked about and supply not meeting demand if it was Lin-Manuel Miranda in a backroom of a bar in a frock coat, a small band and some acting students making up the rest of the cast. The bones are so good on that show - it's clever, musically arresting, compelling story arc, memorable performance from himself - that anybody who would have seen it would have told their friends about it the next day. Some shows need to be big at the start, but they already have "built-in" audiences: Lion King trades on childhood memories of the film, it's not hard to see why it would be a success. Spider-Man which the article touches on was always a bit of a gamble: it has built-in audience, but how many people think of the Spider-Man films _fondly_? Contrast with Back To the Future which I saw premiere in Manchester, UK (the toughest place to test a show in the World perhaps), before lockdown, and it's moved to the West End and I'd predict is going to be huge on Broadway. Great bones, great built-in audience who love revisiting the film and story repeatedly. Perhaps I'm in the wrong industry, but this seems so, so much easier than software businesses...

Grakel 5y ago
Hamilton was workshopped for a very long time and then had a long Off Broadway run at The Public Theatre where additional changes were made. A huge amount of money went into it because of the trust that Lin Manuel had generated with previous work. Spiderman was in tech for over a year (beta testing) because the damned flying didn't work. Then they radically changed the script because it hadn't been workshopped, and it was still terrible. I would encourage you to work on a theatrical production some time. I think you'll find a lot of familiar difficulties, including insane schedules, incompetent management, project bloat, abuse and burnout.
- wombatmobile 5y ago
  > … insane schedules, incompetent management, project bloat, abuse and burnout. … and as TFA says, financial calamities, and yet, we persist, and we love all of love it, and this art will never die. Why? It’s the essence of us. Story telling is the BIOS of humanity.
- mbg721 5y ago
  People talk about network effects and how beneficial it is to be in Silicon Valley if you're a startup--the same thing has got to be true about New York for on-stage performance. The last time I was there, I picked some random off-off-Broadway thing to go see for twenty bucks, in what was basically a hotel bar, and the quality of the acting was incredible.
  - kingcharles 5y ago
    Totally. Sets and props and costumes don't necessarily add anything. Go to a theatre festival like the Edinburgh Festival and you can see dozens of amazing productions with amazing talent acting out of a broom closet, wearing the clothes they fell out of bed in that morning.
  - oddthink 5y ago
    It's definitely true. My kids go to school very close to Broadway, and it seems like something like half the parents are in some Broadway-related jobs, from performing to backstage to office, a lot of them living in Manhattan Plaza. It's a very hit-or-miss industry, so there will be periods when you're not doing anything, and then you're left with this pool of extremely high-talent people doing small productions, waiting tables, and the like.
- kwertyoowiyop 5y ago
  Sounds like the difference between a low-budget game that gets plenty of iteration and playtesting before its wide release, and a AAA game that gets shoved out the door for Christmas because the fiscal quarter depends on it.
michaelt 5y ago
> Not knowing what makes a hit vs a flop seems... strange. Wouldn't any formula for a hit get repeated until audiences are bored and it stops working?
- rwmj 5y ago
  Yes. Movie screenplays are already quite formulaic, eg: https://slate.com/culture/2013/07/hollywood-and-blake-snyders-screenwriting-book-save-the-cat.html https://slate.com/culture/2013/07/hollywood-and-blake-snyder...
motoxpro 5y ago
I think it's the opposite. There are many many more multi million dollar software business than broadway shows, meaning that you have a much lower chance of success making a hit show. It just looks easy in hindsight because you dont see the 10s of thousands of shows that failed and never got picked. Even the "flops" are better than the shows that didn't even get picked up.
epc 5y ago
I invested (way, way, way below the line) in a show which opened off–Broadway a few weeks ago. Had rave reviews when it ran outside NYC and was supposed to open in April 2020. For some odd reason they had to delay the opening to November 2021. It opened, the audience seemed to love it, but one review in the home town paper of record tanked it, I expect it to close this week or next. Off-off Broadway to Off–Broadway is doable, but the economics of adding that extra seat (499 to 500) and becoming a “Broadway” show are just unrealistic for a lot of shows. Different union requirements, plus the theatres impose different costs, and you have to raise a lot more money to open a Broadway show, regardless of where it’s coming from (out of town, off/off-off, local workshop, etc). The only "off off" Broadway show I can think of that made it on Broadway in recent times was Hedwig (started in the Jane hotel bar IIRC), and that took a detour through being turned into a movie. If anything, investing in startups feels easier, I could have spread the same amount of money across multiple startups, figure on losing 33-50%, breaking even a bit, and having one or two return everything. In contrast in a musical or play you’re gambling that the combination of director, cast, band, theatre, mood of the reviewers, mood of the audience will combine just the right way.
- wombatmobile 5y ago
  People don't invest in theater to make money. Same with films, and authoring books. People invest in the arts to make a living. This has nothing to do with the accumulation of money.

Grakel 5y ago

Hamilton was workshopped for a very long time and then had a long Off Broadway run at The Public Theatre where additional changes were made. A huge amount of money went into it because of the trust that Lin Manuel had generated with previous work. Spiderman was in tech for over a year (beta testing) because the damned flying didn't work. Then they radically changed the script because it hadn't been workshopped, and it was still terrible. I would encourage you to work on a theatrical production some time. I think you'll find a lot of familiar difficulties, including insane schedules, incompetent management, project bloat, abuse and burnout.

wombatmobile 5y ago
> … insane schedules, incompetent management, project bloat, abuse and burnout. … and as TFA says, financial calamities, and yet, we persist, and we love all of love it, and this art will never die. Why? It’s the essence of us. Story telling is the BIOS of humanity.
mbg721 5y ago
People talk about network effects and how beneficial it is to be in Silicon Valley if you're a startup--the same thing has got to be true about New York for on-stage performance. The last time I was there, I picked some random off-off-Broadway thing to go see for twenty bucks, in what was basically a hotel bar, and the quality of the acting was incredible.
- kingcharles 5y ago
  Totally. Sets and props and costumes don't necessarily add anything. Go to a theatre festival like the Edinburgh Festival and you can see dozens of amazing productions with amazing talent acting out of a broom closet, wearing the clothes they fell out of bed in that morning.
- oddthink 5y ago
  It's definitely true. My kids go to school very close to Broadway, and it seems like something like half the parents are in some Broadway-related jobs, from performing to backstage to office, a lot of them living in Manhattan Plaza. It's a very hit-or-miss industry, so there will be periods when you're not doing anything, and then you're left with this pool of extremely high-talent people doing small productions, waiting tables, and the like.
kwertyoowiyop 5y ago
Sounds like the difference between a low-budget game that gets plenty of iteration and playtesting before its wide release, and a AAA game that gets shoved out the door for Christmas because the fiscal quarter depends on it.

michaelt 5y ago

> Not knowing what makes a hit vs a flop seems... strange. Wouldn't any formula for a hit get repeated until audiences are bored and it stops working?

rwmj 5y ago
Yes. Movie screenplays are already quite formulaic, eg: https://slate.com/culture/2013/07/hollywood-and-blake-snyders-screenwriting-book-save-the-cat.html https://slate.com/culture/2013/07/hollywood-and-blake-snyder...

motoxpro 5y ago

I think it's the opposite. There are many many more multi million dollar software business than broadway shows, meaning that you have a much lower chance of success making a hit show. It just looks easy in hindsight because you dont see the 10s of thousands of shows that failed and never got picked. Even the "flops" are better than the shows that didn't even get picked up.

epc 5y ago

I invested (way, way, way below the line) in a show which opened off–Broadway a few weeks ago. Had rave reviews when it ran outside NYC and was supposed to open in April 2020. For some odd reason they had to delay the opening to November 2021. It opened, the audience seemed to love it, but one review in the home town paper of record tanked it, I expect it to close this week or next. Off-off Broadway to Off–Broadway is doable, but the economics of adding that extra seat (499 to 500) and becoming a “Broadway” show are just unrealistic for a lot of shows. Different union requirements, plus the theatres impose different costs, and you have to raise a lot more money to open a Broadway show, regardless of where it’s coming from (out of town, off/off-off, local workshop, etc). The only "off off" Broadway show I can think of that made it on Broadway in recent times was Hedwig (started in the Jane hotel bar IIRC), and that took a detour through being turned into a movie. If anything, investing in startups feels easier, I could have spread the same amount of money across multiple startups, figure on losing 33-50%, breaking even a bit, and having one or two return everything. In contrast in a musical or play you’re gambling that the combination of director, cast, band, theatre, mood of the reviewers, mood of the audience will combine just the right way.

wombatmobile 5y ago
People don't invest in theater to make money. Same with films, and authoring books. People invest in the arts to make a living. This has nothing to do with the accumulation of money.