4 ms·
Maybe not a joke: Turkish lira crash at every Thanksgiving?
I would not be surprised if the apparently constant significative fluctuations of the Turkish lira around every October/November is somehow the result of a higher presence of the term "Turkey" in the media before Thanksgiving.
yes, I am (a bit) serious :) :)
Indeed I would doubt any modern "smart" predictive model would not take into account the frequency of that term in communication (from the news to even search terms in a search engine).
- rio517 5y agoWe can look this up quite easily, right? Looking at the past 5 years, I don't see any crashes on/around Thanksgiving
- oriettaxx 5y agolooking at the last 5 years, only in 2019 I do not see any "Thanksgiving effect" :) yes, forgive me, I absolutely did not do any formal analysis, it was just a very superficial visual check with my friends on a TRY vs EURO web plot e.g. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-try.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/eu... It looks like it is mainly more an Autumn effect, and I think the end of the Summer season (with many Tourists going home) has a strong impact