3 ms·

I'd been thinking the same thing, actually. Over 30 mutations in the spike protein huh? Why had we not seen it before at 10, or 25 mutations, etc, etc....

gojomo 5y ago
My understanding is that variant monitoring in Africa, generally, is very low – even though it's supposedly quite good in South Africa. And in enumerating possibilities, the hypothetical reckless experiment I described might also be simulated by other unwise medical practices. For example, what if you had a ward of immunocompromised patients that shared poor ventilation with a next-door quarantine/COVID-treatment area? That'd also risk concentrating multiple variants into an area where co-infection, and long incubation periods for cross-hybridization & accrued mutation, could happen. Long unmonitored transmission chains in the community, especially in populations where illness is barely noted (like young & partially-immune), would also have eventually have the same effect as those other accelerated, worst-case situations.
kordlessagain 5y ago
Because the spike has 10x more appearances in the genome. The spike is literally the thing that gets it in the door of the cells and without it, it doesn’t propagate. It’s not useful to promote lab theories at this point, especially given the real lab (the world) is so large. Trying to make it appear the virus could only mutate in a lab, when there are literally millions of quadrillions of these thing loose in the population, only serves to spread irrational behaviors.
- gojomo 5y ago
  I'm not trying to "make it appear the virus could only mutate in a lab". But, there are well-documented experiments in labs of the type that could create Omicron. And, only a small fraction of all experiments that are happening ever wind up in transparent sources. Consider EcoHealth's creation of hybrid viruses with increased virulence. Or the 2020 research I linked, which bred the ancestral COVID strain for increased immunity-escape. If a patient is suffering from a potentially-fatal disease, enforcing a taboo about enumerating all the possible causes is no favor to the patient. It could kill them. Squelching informed discussion of what enhanced-virulence disease agents are truly, actually being created in research labs is a similar false-decorum that can kill.
- hungryforcodes 5y ago
  OK, but you're just supporting my point. ANY mutations in the spike protein could cause an increase in transmissibility. So we should have seen it much sooner if it was mutating naturally. Now suddenly there are 30 mutations in the spike protein alone. Let me be CLEAR though, I'm not SAYING it was a lab release. I'm just saying it's weird. I'm not conspiracy theory person.

gojomo 5y ago

My understanding is that variant monitoring in Africa, generally, is very low – even though it's supposedly quite good in South Africa. And in enumerating possibilities, the hypothetical reckless experiment I described might also be simulated by other unwise medical practices. For example, what if you had a ward of immunocompromised patients that shared poor ventilation with a next-door quarantine/COVID-treatment area? That'd also risk concentrating multiple variants into an area where co-infection, and long incubation periods for cross-hybridization & accrued mutation, could happen. Long unmonitored transmission chains in the community, especially in populations where illness is barely noted (like young & partially-immune), would also have eventually have the same effect as those other accelerated, worst-case situations.

kordlessagain 5y ago

Because the spike has 10x more appearances in the genome. The spike is literally the thing that gets it in the door of the cells and without it, it doesn’t propagate. It’s not useful to promote lab theories at this point, especially given the real lab (the world) is so large. Trying to make it appear the virus could only mutate in a lab, when there are literally millions of quadrillions of these thing loose in the population, only serves to spread irrational behaviors.

gojomo 5y ago
I'm not trying to "make it appear the virus could only mutate in a lab". But, there are well-documented experiments in labs of the type that could create Omicron. And, only a small fraction of all experiments that are happening ever wind up in transparent sources. Consider EcoHealth's creation of hybrid viruses with increased virulence. Or the 2020 research I linked, which bred the ancestral COVID strain for increased immunity-escape. If a patient is suffering from a potentially-fatal disease, enforcing a taboo about enumerating all the possible causes is no favor to the patient. It could kill them. Squelching informed discussion of what enhanced-virulence disease agents are truly, actually being created in research labs is a similar false-decorum that can kill.
hungryforcodes 5y ago
OK, but you're just supporting my point. ANY mutations in the spike protein could cause an increase in transmissibility. So we should have seen it much sooner if it was mutating naturally. Now suddenly there are 30 mutations in the spike protein alone. Let me be CLEAR though, I'm not SAYING it was a lab release. I'm just saying it's weird. I'm not conspiracy theory person.