4 ms·

It's true that South Africa is largely unvaccinated, but seroprevalence is over 70%, making it one of the most immunized places on earth. Delta had little room

It's true that South Africa is largely unvaccinated, but seroprevalence is over 70%, making it one of the most immunized places on earth. Delta had little room to grow, so whatever came next had to be a mutation with some immune-escape properties. Considering that even the most highly vaccinated places on earth are shattering records of infection rates, it seems implausible that vaccinating the rest of the world would somehow fix this issue. The "most unvaccinated" places on earth are also some of the most populous, therefore a variant is most likely to arise there out of pure chance. In this case, due to the large number of mutations, the prime suspect is an untreated HIV patient with a lingering infection, which is most likely to happen in the southern parts of Africa. It's not clear whether vaccines prevent lingering infection in such a case.

yyyk 5y ago
>It's true that South Africa is largely unvaccinated, but seroprevalence is over 70%, making it one of the most immunized places on earth. OP was suggesting intentionally limiting vaccination. If 'natural' immunity can also allow for antibody-evading mutations, than we get nothing from limiting vaccinations - my point exactly. >Considering that even the most highly vaccinated places on earth are shattering records of infection rates, it seems implausible that vaccinating the rest of the world would somehow fix this issue. We cannot make mutation never happen, but we can limit the damage by vaccinating more. This will help us gain time to get more effective medications.
- incrudible 5y ago
  > If 'natural' immunity can also allow for antibody-evading mutations, than we get nothing from limiting vaccinations - my point exactly. No, that doesn't follow. Vaccines target a spike protein specifically, hence selecting for a variant that defeats that particular kind of immunity, making vaccines obsolete for those that need them the most. This is a hypothetical vaccine-escape variant, not this Omicron variant. We know nothing about its actual capability for vaccine-escape. Natural immunity targets the whole virus, so whatever immune-escape such a virus evolves, it would have to be far more comprehensive to have a significant effect. We may or may not have that in this particular variant and we're still at the very beginning of that wave: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFGNLl3XMAsNQXE?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFGNLl3XMAsNQXE?format=jpg&name=...
  - yyyk 5y ago
    >Vaccines target a spike protein specifically... Natural immunity targets the whole virus, so whatever immune-escape such a virus evolves, it would have to be far more comprehensive A virus avoiding spike antibodies would have an advantage whether these antibodies were 'natural' or not, so it's far from clear natural immunity wouldn't lead to the same mutations - all the VOCs hail from mostly unvaxed countries, which leads to the suspicion that it does. Sure, the 'naturally immune' sick people having extra N-targeting antibodies would be in an advantage vs the virus, but the cost of that is having a real corona infection earlier on, with all the risk simply being frontloaded. * EDIT: the Chinese vaccines are inactivated virus vaccines. One wonders whether they fare better or worse vs this variant. Then again, maybe this variant will fail to transmit effectively and will just kill itself off like Beta did.
    - incrudible 5y ago
      All previous VOCs hail from a timeframe when there weren't any vaccines rolled out yet. The highly vaccinated countries made up for a small share of the world population over the entire timeframe in which mutations have arisen. In other words, there's no good control group here. > Sure, the 'naturally immune' sick people having extra N-targeting antibodies would be in an advantage vs the virus, but the cost of that is having a real corona infection earlier on, with all the risk simply being frontloaded. It's not a binary, when people get vaccinated and then infected (or vice versa), they do develop broader immunity. Frontloading the risk of infection versus vaccination may well be justified in the young and healthy population, but that opinion has been ostracized from the mainstream. > the Chinese vaccines are inactivated virus vaccines. One wonders whether they fare better or worse vs this variant. Not all of them are, but CoronaVac is. This[1] suggests that while efficacy of CoronVac against wild-type infection was modest (51%), the reduction when confronted with Gamma was very small (49.6%). > Then again, maybe this variant will fail to transmit effectively and will just kill itself off like Beta did. Beta didn't "kill itself off", it led to wave that rivaled Delta/Gamma in some cases. It ended up being outcompeted by Delta/Gamma. [1] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sinovac-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sin...
frontman1988 5y ago
Where did the idea of an untreated HIV person being the prime suspect came from? Sounds interesting.
- moistly 5y ago
  Some of the HIV-inflicted are carrying the virus for months upon months. Their immune system can’t eliminate the virus entirely, and so it has innumerable opportunities to mutate into a more infectious form. It has much less opportunity to do so in those who can clear it out in a few weeks, and much, much less opportunity in the vaccinated.
- podgaj 5y ago
  It came right out of someones asshole because it is a big shit of a lie.
  - incrudible 5y ago
    It's the leading hypothesis, considering the large amount of mutations and the location where it was discovered, where HIV prevalence exceeds 20%. "Geneticists and infectious disease specialists there have uncovered potentially dangerous coronavirus mutations in a 36-year-old woman with uncontrolled HIV who was unable to shake the SARS-CoV-2 virus for close to eight months." That was reported back in June: https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-06-03/why-reaching-herd-immunity-in-the-u-s-wont-be-enough-to-protect-us-from-covid-19 https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-06-03/why-reachin...

yyyk 5y ago

>It's true that South Africa is largely unvaccinated, but seroprevalence is over 70%, making it one of the most immunized places on earth. OP was suggesting intentionally limiting vaccination. If 'natural' immunity can also allow for antibody-evading mutations, than we get nothing from limiting vaccinations - my point exactly. >Considering that even the most highly vaccinated places on earth are shattering records of infection rates, it seems implausible that vaccinating the rest of the world would somehow fix this issue. We cannot make mutation never happen, but we can limit the damage by vaccinating more. This will help us gain time to get more effective medications.

incrudible 5y ago
> If 'natural' immunity can also allow for antibody-evading mutations, than we get nothing from limiting vaccinations - my point exactly. No, that doesn't follow. Vaccines target a spike protein specifically, hence selecting for a variant that defeats that particular kind of immunity, making vaccines obsolete for those that need them the most. This is a hypothetical vaccine-escape variant, not this Omicron variant. We know nothing about its actual capability for vaccine-escape. Natural immunity targets the whole virus, so whatever immune-escape such a virus evolves, it would have to be far more comprehensive to have a significant effect. We may or may not have that in this particular variant and we're still at the very beginning of that wave: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFGNLl3XMAsNQXE?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFGNLl3XMAsNQXE?format=jpg&name=...
- yyyk 5y ago
  >Vaccines target a spike protein specifically... Natural immunity targets the whole virus, so whatever immune-escape such a virus evolves, it would have to be far more comprehensive A virus avoiding spike antibodies would have an advantage whether these antibodies were 'natural' or not, so it's far from clear natural immunity wouldn't lead to the same mutations - all the VOCs hail from mostly unvaxed countries, which leads to the suspicion that it does. Sure, the 'naturally immune' sick people having extra N-targeting antibodies would be in an advantage vs the virus, but the cost of that is having a real corona infection earlier on, with all the risk simply being frontloaded. * EDIT: the Chinese vaccines are inactivated virus vaccines. One wonders whether they fare better or worse vs this variant. Then again, maybe this variant will fail to transmit effectively and will just kill itself off like Beta did.
  - incrudible 5y ago
    All previous VOCs hail from a timeframe when there weren't any vaccines rolled out yet. The highly vaccinated countries made up for a small share of the world population over the entire timeframe in which mutations have arisen. In other words, there's no good control group here. > Sure, the 'naturally immune' sick people having extra N-targeting antibodies would be in an advantage vs the virus, but the cost of that is having a real corona infection earlier on, with all the risk simply being frontloaded. It's not a binary, when people get vaccinated and then infected (or vice versa), they do develop broader immunity. Frontloading the risk of infection versus vaccination may well be justified in the young and healthy population, but that opinion has been ostracized from the mainstream. > the Chinese vaccines are inactivated virus vaccines. One wonders whether they fare better or worse vs this variant. Not all of them are, but CoronaVac is. This[1] suggests that while efficacy of CoronVac against wild-type infection was modest (51%), the reduction when confronted with Gamma was very small (49.6%). > Then again, maybe this variant will fail to transmit effectively and will just kill itself off like Beta did. Beta didn't "kill itself off", it led to wave that rivaled Delta/Gamma in some cases. It ended up being outcompeted by Delta/Gamma. [1] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sinovac-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sin...

frontman1988 5y ago

Where did the idea of an untreated HIV person being the prime suspect came from? Sounds interesting.

moistly 5y ago
Some of the HIV-inflicted are carrying the virus for months upon months. Their immune system can’t eliminate the virus entirely, and so it has innumerable opportunities to mutate into a more infectious form. It has much less opportunity to do so in those who can clear it out in a few weeks, and much, much less opportunity in the vaccinated.
podgaj 5y ago
It came right out of someones asshole because it is a big shit of a lie.
- incrudible 5y ago
  It's the leading hypothesis, considering the large amount of mutations and the location where it was discovered, where HIV prevalence exceeds 20%. "Geneticists and infectious disease specialists there have uncovered potentially dangerous coronavirus mutations in a 36-year-old woman with uncontrolled HIV who was unable to shake the SARS-CoV-2 virus for close to eight months." That was reported back in June: https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-06-03/why-reaching-herd-immunity-in-the-u-s-wont-be-enough-to-protect-us-from-covid-19 https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-06-03/why-reachin...