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I do not mean any offense to you personally with this comment. I think science should be limited to scientists, and this is a good example. I am not a research

by podgaj 5y ago

I do not mean any offense to you personally with this comment. I think science should be limited to scientists, and this is a good example. I am not a researcher but I know enough to know what I do not know. People saying that this "virus mutates quickly" is not only wrong but makes it scarier than it is. Every virus mutates when it is in a new host. A variant is created when that mutation confers some survival benefit. But COVID actually mutates MUCH SLOWER than influenza!!!! https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/ "Both viruses depend on a viral RNA polymerase to express their proteins, but only SARS-CoV-2 has a proofreading mechanism, which results in a low mutation rate compared to influenza." https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/disease-understanding/the-natural-evolution-of-sars-cov-2.html https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/disea... "The average mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 remains low and steady, and is much slower than other RNA viruses such as influenza viruses. Unlike coronaviruses, influenza viruses (which cause the flu) are prone to changes through processes called antigenic drift and antigenic shift.3,4" The only thing that makes SARS2 a bigger problem that the flu is the R value, or how fast it spreads. Flu is between R1 and R2, while Delta was between R5 and R7. So the issue is not one of mutations, but of spread. Vaccines do not stop the spread and that is a problem. Even when vaccinates you have no symptoms but you will catch the virus and create mutations. A total worldwide lockdown, IMO, would have stopped this dead because of the low mutation rate. But unfortunately governments favored the economy over lives. And I also blame Fauci and Trump for not making enough N95 masks and Fauci actually discouraging their use in the beginning. At this point it is with us forever since wildlife will continue to spread it. Eventually it will settle to a place where it kills X amount of people and we will be OK with it as we have become OK with the flu killing 30,000 to 70,000 people a year.

dls2016 5y ago
> I think science should be limited to scientists The GP asked a question, obviously out of a place of wanting to learn. How else are new scientists produced if we don’t let non-scientists engage in science?
- gus_massa 5y ago
  It was not a question, the GGP claimed: > because it seems like the virus mutates quickly The problem is that there is too much misinformation floating around, some to claim the virus is fake or innocuous, some to claim that it's more scary than it is. Anyway, I agree that it's good that non scientist participate in the discussion. It would be nice if the experts here can fix the error (preferably with links to the sources). I'm not an expert in biology/medicine, so I can help very little here, but in other topics I can do more. [Nobody is posting about the Em-Drive recently, so I can't post my usual rant against it :( .]
graeme 5y ago
Your paper is from June 2020, indicating it was written with data even earlier than that. Now, late 2021, it appears we are seeing more covid mutations than flu mutations. How can this be? For one, we have massively more SARS-Cov-2 cases than flu cases. You could have the fastest mutating virus in the world but if it could only transmit to one host per year it would mutate slower than a virus which mutated 100x slower but had over a billion infections per year. I believe you’ve committed the very error you warned against. With flu vaccines we could do an annual vaccine production schedule as there was one big season in most countries. But with SARS-Cov-2 there is a wave cycle and the problem space gets trickier. Seems to be about four waves a year.
- podgaj 5y ago
  > Now, late 2021, it appears we are seeing more covid mutations than flu mutations. You cannot just say things like this without citing evidence. It is so frustrating. The flu virus IN VIRTO at any time will mutate faster because it does not have a mechanism to correct mutations like SARS2 does. The second statement I posted was straight from Astra Zenica in 2021 so why did you pick the one you wanted and refute it just because it was old? Because you are lazy and just want to be right. This is from OCTOBER 19, 2021, all you need to do was search. But I am just done with the internet, everyone is everything but no one is nothing. I am going to be nothing. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465159/covids-endgame-scientists-have-a-clue-about-where-sars-cov-2-is-headed https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465... "Six months into the pandemic, the virus seemed to be following the predicted course. "To date, there have been very few mutations observed," molecular biologist Peter Thielen at Johns Hopkins University told NPR in June 2020 for a story with the headline: "This Coronavirus Doesn't Change Quickly, And That's Good News For Vaccine Makers.""
  - graeme 5y ago
    ….did you continue reading the article? It says the paragraph you quoted was proven incorrect and SARS-Cov-2 is now mutating 4x faster than seasonal flu. Your own article shows you’re wrong. “ Last month, Kistler and her colleagues at the University of Washington published a new metric to measure how quickly SARS-CoV-2 is evolving as it adapts to living inside humans. When Kistler first saw the value, she was shocked. "SARS-CoV-2's rate of adaptation is remarkably high right now," she says, "like roughly four times higher for SARS-CoV-2 than it is for seasonal flu." But please, continue attacking people. You perhaps missed this because you ignored my central point, which is that production of mutations is a result of mutability multiplied by transmission. SARS-Cov-2 transmission numbers dwarf typical flu caseloads. The paper you cited only looks at mutability. The AstraZeneca article is an explainer with no new research. And it’s from February, pre-Delta.
hjtkfkfmr 5y ago
Fauci is an expert in infectious diseases. You are not. So according to your post, you are in no position to blame his recommendation to not wear masks.
tomByrer 5y ago
> we have become OK with the flu killing 30,000 to 70,000 people a year (I'm guessing USA stats here?) I suspect Seasonal Flu had been involved in killing far more people per year; Flu tests were never administered to such a large % of people, esp in Summer.
halfmatthalfcat 5y ago
Just to reply to one point of your post, up until potentially May 2020 I don’t think the transmission medium of COVID was widely understood. I was in NYC through the first couple waves and in the beginning, we were arguing over droplet size and transmissibility. People were wiping everything down to avoid contagion. There was no real respiratory concern outside of being right up in someone’s face. I honestly don’t think anybody knew, let alone a conspiracy, to convey bad information to the public. They just flat out didn’t know. It wasn’t until further experimentation over the summer of 2020 that the primary means of transmission is through very fine respiratory action.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

by podgaj 5y ago

dls2016 5y ago

> I think science should be limited to scientists The GP asked a question, obviously out of a place of wanting to learn. How else are new scientists produced if we don’t let non-scientists engage in science?

gus_massa 5y ago
It was not a question, the GGP claimed: > because it seems like the virus mutates quickly The problem is that there is too much misinformation floating around, some to claim the virus is fake or innocuous, some to claim that it's more scary than it is. Anyway, I agree that it's good that non scientist participate in the discussion. It would be nice if the experts here can fix the error (preferably with links to the sources). I'm not an expert in biology/medicine, so I can help very little here, but in other topics I can do more. [Nobody is posting about the Em-Drive recently, so I can't post my usual rant against it :( .]

graeme 5y ago

Your paper is from June 2020, indicating it was written with data even earlier than that. Now, late 2021, it appears we are seeing more covid mutations than flu mutations. How can this be? For one, we have massively more SARS-Cov-2 cases than flu cases. You could have the fastest mutating virus in the world but if it could only transmit to one host per year it would mutate slower than a virus which mutated 100x slower but had over a billion infections per year. I believe you’ve committed the very error you warned against. With flu vaccines we could do an annual vaccine production schedule as there was one big season in most countries. But with SARS-Cov-2 there is a wave cycle and the problem space gets trickier. Seems to be about four waves a year.

podgaj 5y ago
> Now, late 2021, it appears we are seeing more covid mutations than flu mutations. You cannot just say things like this without citing evidence. It is so frustrating. The flu virus IN VIRTO at any time will mutate faster because it does not have a mechanism to correct mutations like SARS2 does. The second statement I posted was straight from Astra Zenica in 2021 so why did you pick the one you wanted and refute it just because it was old? Because you are lazy and just want to be right. This is from OCTOBER 19, 2021, all you need to do was search. But I am just done with the internet, everyone is everything but no one is nothing. I am going to be nothing. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465159/covids-endgame-scientists-have-a-clue-about-where-sars-cov-2-is-headed https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465... "Six months into the pandemic, the virus seemed to be following the predicted course. "To date, there have been very few mutations observed," molecular biologist Peter Thielen at Johns Hopkins University told NPR in June 2020 for a story with the headline: "This Coronavirus Doesn't Change Quickly, And That's Good News For Vaccine Makers.""
- graeme 5y ago
  ….did you continue reading the article? It says the paragraph you quoted was proven incorrect and SARS-Cov-2 is now mutating 4x faster than seasonal flu. Your own article shows you’re wrong. “ Last month, Kistler and her colleagues at the University of Washington published a new metric to measure how quickly SARS-CoV-2 is evolving as it adapts to living inside humans. When Kistler first saw the value, she was shocked. "SARS-CoV-2's rate of adaptation is remarkably high right now," she says, "like roughly four times higher for SARS-CoV-2 than it is for seasonal flu." But please, continue attacking people. You perhaps missed this because you ignored my central point, which is that production of mutations is a result of mutability multiplied by transmission. SARS-Cov-2 transmission numbers dwarf typical flu caseloads. The paper you cited only looks at mutability. The AstraZeneca article is an explainer with no new research. And it’s from February, pre-Delta.

hjtkfkfmr 5y ago

Fauci is an expert in infectious diseases. You are not. So according to your post, you are in no position to blame his recommendation to not wear masks.

tomByrer 5y ago

> we have become OK with the flu killing 30,000 to 70,000 people a year (I'm guessing USA stats here?) I suspect Seasonal Flu had been involved in killing far more people per year; Flu tests were never administered to such a large % of people, esp in Summer.

halfmatthalfcat 5y ago

Just to reply to one point of your post, up until potentially May 2020 I don’t think the transmission medium of COVID was widely understood. I was in NYC through the first couple waves and in the beginning, we were arguing over droplet size and transmissibility. People were wiping everything down to avoid contagion. There was no real respiratory concern outside of being right up in someone’s face. I honestly don’t think anybody knew, let alone a conspiracy, to convey bad information to the public. They just flat out didn’t know. It wasn’t until further experimentation over the summer of 2020 that the primary means of transmission is through very fine respiratory action.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]