I don't think you need something really sophisticated. The true value from public transport comes from predictability. Having a bus take a known route through

I don't think you need something really sophisticated. The true value from public transport comes from predictability. Having a bus take a known route through important routes that allow you get to a stop and board a bus within <10 minutes without even having to know what time it is is really important for people to start relying on the bus system. With that, even if the public transport takes slightly longer, not having to actively drive (in traffic) and find parking makes it much better. Now you use the time to read/think/mindlessly scroll through your phone on your way, or even be a bit dizzy on the way back. I think that adding buses is not enough to reduce car traffic. Probably car-oriented cities are already organized in a way that driving is "needed" often. Cities with public transport make walking amenable, often fun and relaxing.