7 ms·

> BULLSHIT. How delusional can you be? The comment you responded to asked for an honest, intellectual response but your response was reactionary, rude, and pr

> BULLSHIT. How delusional can you be? The comment you responded to asked for an honest, intellectual response but your response was reactionary, rude, and provided no insight. The links you supplied in your other comment do not show a clear causal effect of mandates and restrictions on case rates. Outbreaks are known to follow a pretty clear 45 day cycle; the onset of restrictions usually occur as rates are exponentially increasing and theres no evidence that such restrictions taper infections to a degree discernible from the normal cycle. Furthermore, observational evidence from states like Florida, a state that has zero restrictions or mandates and yet currently has the lowest case rate in the United States, make the idea that such measures have a “massive effect” on spread dubious at best.

brazzy 5y ago
> The links you supplied in your other comment do not show a clear causal effect of mandates and restrictions on case rates. They do. It's not mathematically-clean, but that is just not what you get in a messy reality. >Outbreaks are known to follow a pretty clear 45 day cycle; the onset of restrictions usually occur as rates are exponentially increasing and theres no evidence that such restrictions taper infections to a degree discernible from the normal cycle. What is the mechanism behind this cycle that you claim? How do you conclude that it's not the typical beaurocratic reaction time to rising case numbers and implementation of restrictions that cause the cycle? We know how the virus spreads. How contact reduction and masks prevent that is simple enough for a preschooler to understand. We have strong empirical evidence that it works at scale. Claiming anything else is simply reality denial. >Furthermore, observational evidence from states like Florida, a state that has zero restrictions or mandates and yet currently has the lowest case rate in the United States, make the idea that such measures have a “massive effect” on spread dubious at best. How so? How can development in a state that has no restrictions prove anything at all about how effective they are? At most, the example can prove that there are other things that can reduce case numbers. I never said there weren't. Now go and tell me what they are, how they work, and how they can be transferred elsewhere. Because if the answer turns out to be "warm climate" that is not very useful. It's totally worth looking at. But not as a diversion to avoid doing things we know to work at preventing hundreds of deaths every day.

brazzy 5y ago

> The links you supplied in your other comment do not show a clear causal effect of mandates and restrictions on case rates. They do. It's not mathematically-clean, but that is just not what you get in a messy reality. >Outbreaks are known to follow a pretty clear 45 day cycle; the onset of restrictions usually occur as rates are exponentially increasing and theres no evidence that such restrictions taper infections to a degree discernible from the normal cycle. What is the mechanism behind this cycle that you claim? How do you conclude that it's not the typical beaurocratic reaction time to rising case numbers and implementation of restrictions that cause the cycle? We know how the virus spreads. How contact reduction and masks prevent that is simple enough for a preschooler to understand. We have strong empirical evidence that it works at scale. Claiming anything else is simply reality denial. >Furthermore, observational evidence from states like Florida, a state that has zero restrictions or mandates and yet currently has the lowest case rate in the United States, make the idea that such measures have a “massive effect” on spread dubious at best. How so? How can development in a state that has no restrictions prove anything at all about how effective they are? At most, the example can prove that there are other things that can reduce case numbers. I never said there weren't. Now go and tell me what they are, how they work, and how they can be transferred elsewhere. Because if the answer turns out to be "warm climate" that is not very useful. It's totally worth looking at. But not as a diversion to avoid doing things we know to work at preventing hundreds of deaths every day.