4 ms·

That paper is purely based on a model with [optimistic] assumed effectiveness and transmission parameters. It does not consider any actual infection statistics

That paper is purely based on a model with [optimistic] assumed effectiveness and transmission parameters. It does not consider any actual infection statistics to come to its conclusion. I'd love to see a paper explaining why some two months ago cases were already at or approaching record highs in countries with 70-90% vaccination rates, like UK, Israel, multiple EU nations...Gibraltar is particularly interesting because it has a nearly 100% vaccination rate, yet the case rate continues to climb unabated. [0] People are treating these vaccines as though they were sacrosanct and unquestionable. Meanwhile the pandemic continues nearly unabated and no, this is not a "pandemic among the vaccinated", despite the fervor with which certain interests have attempted to paint such a picture. Public UK data suggests that vaccinated individuals may actually be more likely to be infected some months after their second doses. But no one is talking about that... 0. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/ 1. https://vladtepesblog.com/2021/10/10/is-this-ade-uk-data-shows-vaxxed-more-infected-than-unvaxxed-it-is-certainly-a-giant-giant-herd-of-unicorns/ https://vladtepesblog.com/2021/10/10/is-this-ade-uk-data-sho... - yes, it's a blog, but it links to the data for you to review yourself. Check the last two columns of the chart on page 13. This wouldn't be the first time that humans failed to solve a complex problem, I don't see why its so difficult for people to accept this possibility.

jschwartzi 5y ago
In my state the vaccination rate is above 70% and the hospitalization rate has decoupled from the positive rate. The spike this winter ended in October whereas last winter it didn’t end until January. We’ve been on a downward trend even with shows and restaurants open and people having parties. So I would cite that as evidence the vaccine is protecting our population.
- twofornone 5y ago
  Or perhaps people are acquiring immunity through contact since the majority of cases have been known to be mild or asymptomatic since the pandemic started? And/or the virus is mutating into less infectious substrains? Cold/flu viruses come and go. This virus will do the same. People will see it as evidence that the vaccines worked when in reality the pandemic very likely would have ended without them, yet here we are facing mandates...
d0gsg0w00f 5y ago
Right, and this is why I have a problem with employer enforced mandates even though I'm vaccinated. The government taking away your right to work and support yourself based on some pretty flimsy data about the public good for something that should be a personal decision. Fact is, the vaccinated really shouldn't be losing much sleep over the unvaccinated other than maybe those dirty people might be taking up an ICU bed when I need one. Ok fine, you want to enforce this: then just man up and imprison the unvaccinated using force. Don't hide behind employers and make them do your dirty work. Taking away a person's right to work is only 2 degrees separated from making them dependent on the state. It's a fear tactic they're hoping they won't ever have to enforce--not that much different than holding a gun to someone's head. At the end of the day you're never going to be able make someone do something against their will. People who go against the mainstream will already suffer social consequences. If you have to do something with government resources then beef up the ICU beds . While you're at it you may as well make it illegal to work if you're a smoker, or obese, or if you've ever had a car accident because those things may lead to eating up an ICU bed for some other person that stands on a higher moral ground.
- roca 5y ago
  Comparing failure to vaccinate with smoking or obesity are off the mark because it is not easy to quit smoking or overcome obesity. If there was an effective, cheap, safe and instant cure for smoking addiction or obesity and people refused to take it, societies would indeed by highly critical of those people consuming hospital resources.
  - sushsjsuauahab 5y ago
    It is not easy for me to vaccinate myself when I've had adverse reactions in the past.
    - roca 5y ago
      Sorry to hear that, but that's a small minority of people. And I hope you've talked to your doctor about it --- we're lucky with COVID to have a variety of vaccines with different makeups to choose from.
roca 5y ago
The current situation in Auckland, New Zealand provides very good evidence of vaccines reducing spread, though I don't think it has been written up in a paper yet. We've had < 10,000 confirmed COVID cases in Auckland so the vast majority of the 2M population cannot have natural immunity. Behavior restrictions have been relaxed gradually over the last two months, yet the COVID case numbers (which were increasing) have actually leveled out at an R value of around 1. Vaccination is the only thing that could plausibly have reduced that infection rate.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  I wonder if seasonal variations have a effect. New Zealand is closing on summer, which my understanding was less bad in Europe.
  - roca 5y ago
    Auckland's climate is pretty mild year-round. Seasonality is a confounder, for sure, but I haven't heard any experts claim it as an explanation here.

jschwartzi 5y ago

In my state the vaccination rate is above 70% and the hospitalization rate has decoupled from the positive rate. The spike this winter ended in October whereas last winter it didn’t end until January. We’ve been on a downward trend even with shows and restaurants open and people having parties. So I would cite that as evidence the vaccine is protecting our population.

twofornone 5y ago
Or perhaps people are acquiring immunity through contact since the majority of cases have been known to be mild or asymptomatic since the pandemic started? And/or the virus is mutating into less infectious substrains? Cold/flu viruses come and go. This virus will do the same. People will see it as evidence that the vaccines worked when in reality the pandemic very likely would have ended without them, yet here we are facing mandates...

d0gsg0w00f 5y ago

Right, and this is why I have a problem with employer enforced mandates even though I'm vaccinated. The government taking away your right to work and support yourself based on some pretty flimsy data about the public good for something that should be a personal decision. Fact is, the vaccinated really shouldn't be losing much sleep over the unvaccinated other than maybe those dirty people might be taking up an ICU bed when I need one. Ok fine, you want to enforce this: then just man up and imprison the unvaccinated using force. Don't hide behind employers and make them do your dirty work. Taking away a person's right to work is only 2 degrees separated from making them dependent on the state. It's a fear tactic they're hoping they won't ever have to enforce--not that much different than holding a gun to someone's head. At the end of the day you're never going to be able make someone do something against their will. People who go against the mainstream will already suffer social consequences. If you have to do something with government resources then beef up the ICU beds . While you're at it you may as well make it illegal to work if you're a smoker, or obese, or if you've ever had a car accident because those things may lead to eating up an ICU bed for some other person that stands on a higher moral ground.

roca 5y ago
Comparing failure to vaccinate with smoking or obesity are off the mark because it is not easy to quit smoking or overcome obesity. If there was an effective, cheap, safe and instant cure for smoking addiction or obesity and people refused to take it, societies would indeed by highly critical of those people consuming hospital resources.
- sushsjsuauahab 5y ago
  It is not easy for me to vaccinate myself when I've had adverse reactions in the past.
  - roca 5y ago
    Sorry to hear that, but that's a small minority of people. And I hope you've talked to your doctor about it --- we're lucky with COVID to have a variety of vaccines with different makeups to choose from.

roca 5y ago

The current situation in Auckland, New Zealand provides very good evidence of vaccines reducing spread, though I don't think it has been written up in a paper yet. We've had < 10,000 confirmed COVID cases in Auckland so the vast majority of the 2M population cannot have natural immunity. Behavior restrictions have been relaxed gradually over the last two months, yet the COVID case numbers (which were increasing) have actually leveled out at an R value of around 1. Vaccination is the only thing that could plausibly have reduced that infection rate.

Ekaros 5y ago
I wonder if seasonal variations have a effect. New Zealand is closing on summer, which my understanding was less bad in Europe.
- roca 5y ago
  Auckland's climate is pretty mild year-round. Seasonality is a confounder, for sure, but I haven't heard any experts claim it as an explanation here.