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> Indeed we are already seeing strong negative effects from warming I keep reading this over and over, everywhere. Yet sea level rise at the Dutch coast has no

> Indeed we are already seeing strong negative effects from warming I keep reading this over and over, everywhere. Yet sea level rise at the Dutch coast has not accelerated and is at a steady 1.5-2mm/yr for over a century. https://www.klimaatfeiten.nl/gevolgen/zeespiegel/nederland-zee https://www.klimaatfeiten.nl/gevolgen/zeespiegel/nederland-z...

sailingparrot 5y ago
It's a dynamic and complex system, not all metrics tracking the consequences of climate change will be evolving in perfect synchrony, and they will not change everywhere in the same way. Also sea level does not rise equally all around the globe: "Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to local factors such as land subsidence from natural processes and withdrawal of groundwater and fossil fuels, changes in regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers." [1] Looking at a single metric from a single place is quite shallow reasoning. Ask a Canadian if they are already seeing strong negative effects from warming and you will get the exact opposite reaction from you after what happened there over the last year. [1]: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  Not just Canada. I'm the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany there were massive river floods this year leading to great loss of life. The Netherlands had more physical mitigations so was spared the deaths but it was still a disaster
- the-dude 5y ago
  Yet nobody seems to produce sea level graphs with an accelerating trend from anywhere. Yet for the The Netherlands we have 4 measuring stations which are consistent. Your link only mentions 'and the rate has increased in recent decades' but then only talks about sea level rise. Nobody is disputing sea level is rising : we have exited an ice age. And before you accuse me of shallow reasoning : why don't you come up with the graphs?
  - sailingparrot 5y ago
    > "And before you accuse me of shallow reasoning : why don't you come up with the graphs?" Because that's irrelevant to my point? That sea level is rising or not, and specifically in The Netherlands at that, cannot reasonably be used as a proxy to decide whether or not we are globally starting to feel the consequence of global warming. But here is a graph anyway: https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-14/ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-chan... And here is another one: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... And here is a quote: "The rate of sea level rise has accelerated considerably relative to the pre-industrial era. Over the twentieth century, global sea level increased at an average rate of about 2 mm yr–1, which is substantially larger than the rate of the previous three millennia. Furthermore, evidence now exists for additional acceleration during the twentieth century" [2] But I see you are pulling your climate facts from a website that states "The warming is beneficial for people and nature" and "Large-scale use of 'renewable' energy is bad for nature and the environment", so I don't really know why I am bothering arguing with you. [2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/49588416_Global_Sea_Level_Rise_Recent_Progress_and_Challenges_for_the_Decade_to_Come https://www.researchgate.net/publication/49588416_Global_Sea...
    - the-dude 5y ago
      I should have known everything would be used against me. That site was the first that popped up in zhe Google when I was looking for the graph. In previous comments, I linked directly to the measuring stations feeds ( if only I could search my HN comments ). The graph is the same, what does it matter which site it is hosted on? How come the rise in the late 1800's and early 1900's is already 'substantially larger' ( how much? ) than the millenia before ( if true? ). The car was hardly invented. And your graphs : if I squint really hard, I might see some acceleration in the last 10-15 years. But it could as well be statistical insignificant in the time frames we are talking about.
      - pl-94 5y ago
thatfrenchguy 5y ago
« Let me cherry pick one thing that has not gone wrong yet so I don’t have to worry about this » is how you become RIM.
sulam 5y ago
Go back 20 or 30 years and the "story" with warming was sea level rise. However, as we learn more about how ecosystems respond to increased temperatures, we've learned that there's many more things to worry about than whether or not Miami Beach millionaires are going to have to add a floor to their garages. For instance, heat waves are hotter now than they used to be, leading to increased mortality rates in the very young and very old in areas that don't have reliable cooling available. Places like, oh, Paris. Entire populations are being displaced in mountain communities where fresh water came from snow/glacier melt, but now the glacier is gone and the snow doesn't accumulate anymore. Watch this space, because this could easily be a source of water problems in California before long, since most of Northern California's water supply depends on the Sierra snow pack. (Although, real talk: we should just stop giving almost all the water to farmers to grow more almonds). Sea level rise has caused recurrent tidal flooding across the Eastern seaboard and those effects are coming to the West coast and Hawaii next. Because of this, coastal communities are getting their flood plain boundaries redrawn by FEMA, leading to increased home insurance costs and disclosures that directly affect property values. Beetle populations have exploded as they can both overwinter more easily and, in some places, now have two breeding cycles a year instead of one. This in turn means trees are being killed by beetle infestations in NA at a rate that is literally higher than what is burned every year in wildfires. I could go on...
- bonzini 5y ago
  > areas that don't have reliable cooling available. Places like, oh, Paris Most of Europe has extremely poor cooling of buildings even without AC. Stop making buildings black and add outdoor blinds instead of living in a greenhouse (the kind of stuff that is super common in Mediterranean countries), that will already help a lot. Trying to solve the problem with more electricity is making it worse, not better.

sailingparrot 5y ago

It's a dynamic and complex system, not all metrics tracking the consequences of climate change will be evolving in perfect synchrony, and they will not change everywhere in the same way. Also sea level does not rise equally all around the globe: "Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to local factors such as land subsidence from natural processes and withdrawal of groundwater and fossil fuels, changes in regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers." [1] Looking at a single metric from a single place is quite shallow reasoning. Ask a Canadian if they are already seeing strong negative effects from warming and you will get the exact opposite reaction from you after what happened there over the last year. [1]: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

GekkePrutser 5y ago
Not just Canada. I'm the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany there were massive river floods this year leading to great loss of life. The Netherlands had more physical mitigations so was spared the deaths but it was still a disaster
the-dude 5y ago
Yet nobody seems to produce sea level graphs with an accelerating trend from anywhere. Yet for the The Netherlands we have 4 measuring stations which are consistent. Your link only mentions 'and the rate has increased in recent decades' but then only talks about sea level rise. Nobody is disputing sea level is rising : we have exited an ice age. And before you accuse me of shallow reasoning : why don't you come up with the graphs?
- sailingparrot 5y ago
  > "And before you accuse me of shallow reasoning : why don't you come up with the graphs?" Because that's irrelevant to my point? That sea level is rising or not, and specifically in The Netherlands at that, cannot reasonably be used as a proxy to decide whether or not we are globally starting to feel the consequence of global warming. But here is a graph anyway: https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-14/ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-chan... And here is another one: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... And here is a quote: "The rate of sea level rise has accelerated considerably relative to the pre-industrial era. Over the twentieth century, global sea level increased at an average rate of about 2 mm yr–1, which is substantially larger than the rate of the previous three millennia. Furthermore, evidence now exists for additional acceleration during the twentieth century" [2] But I see you are pulling your climate facts from a website that states "The warming is beneficial for people and nature" and "Large-scale use of 'renewable' energy is bad for nature and the environment", so I don't really know why I am bothering arguing with you. [2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/49588416_Global_Sea_Level_Rise_Recent_Progress_and_Challenges_for_the_Decade_to_Come https://www.researchgate.net/publication/49588416_Global_Sea...
  - the-dude 5y ago
    I should have known everything would be used against me. That site was the first that popped up in zhe Google when I was looking for the graph. In previous comments, I linked directly to the measuring stations feeds ( if only I could search my HN comments ). The graph is the same, what does it matter which site it is hosted on? How come the rise in the late 1800's and early 1900's is already 'substantially larger' ( how much? ) than the millenia before ( if true? ). The car was hardly invented. And your graphs : if I squint really hard, I might see some acceleration in the last 10-15 years. But it could as well be statistical insignificant in the time frames we are talking about.
    - pl-94 5y ago

thatfrenchguy 5y ago

« Let me cherry pick one thing that has not gone wrong yet so I don’t have to worry about this » is how you become RIM.

sulam 5y ago

Go back 20 or 30 years and the "story" with warming was sea level rise. However, as we learn more about how ecosystems respond to increased temperatures, we've learned that there's many more things to worry about than whether or not Miami Beach millionaires are going to have to add a floor to their garages. For instance, heat waves are hotter now than they used to be, leading to increased mortality rates in the very young and very old in areas that don't have reliable cooling available. Places like, oh, Paris. Entire populations are being displaced in mountain communities where fresh water came from snow/glacier melt, but now the glacier is gone and the snow doesn't accumulate anymore. Watch this space, because this could easily be a source of water problems in California before long, since most of Northern California's water supply depends on the Sierra snow pack. (Although, real talk: we should just stop giving almost all the water to farmers to grow more almonds). Sea level rise has caused recurrent tidal flooding across the Eastern seaboard and those effects are coming to the West coast and Hawaii next. Because of this, coastal communities are getting their flood plain boundaries redrawn by FEMA, leading to increased home insurance costs and disclosures that directly affect property values. Beetle populations have exploded as they can both overwinter more easily and, in some places, now have two breeding cycles a year instead of one. This in turn means trees are being killed by beetle infestations in NA at a rate that is literally higher than what is burned every year in wildfires. I could go on...

bonzini 5y ago
> areas that don't have reliable cooling available. Places like, oh, Paris Most of Europe has extremely poor cooling of buildings even without AC. Stop making buildings black and add outdoor blinds instead of living in a greenhouse (the kind of stuff that is super common in Mediterranean countries), that will already help a lot. Trying to solve the problem with more electricity is making it worse, not better.