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India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level

38 points by cwwc 5y ago

jbergens 5y ago
According to the map a number of states are far below replacement rate. Combine this with the fact that the numbers seems to go down in general Indias population may shrink pretty quickly within a few decades.
- tuatoru 5y ago
  For values of "a few" greater than six, perhaps. Girls born recently will continue to have children of their own, and life expectancy is rising along with incomes. Google "demographic momentum". (Wikipedia: Population momentum.[1]). 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum
1cvmask 5y ago
This seems like India is following in China's footsteps. The full tweet: India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level (2.1 children per women). However there is still significant variation between states. The lowest birth rate is in Sikkim at 1.1, equivalent to Singapore, while the highest is in Bihar at 3.0, equivalent to Israel. - The map in the tweet has a state by state breakdown.
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  Seems strange to compare to China when in fact this trend is happening everywhere. China thought they needed the government to enforce low birth rates, but they were wrong, so it turns out they needlessly abused their own women with forced abortions and sterilizations. Wups.
  - voakbasda 5y ago
    “We are from the government and are here to help”. These are some of the most terrifying words that I have ever heard uttered.
jjk166 5y ago
It should be noted that the fertility rate is sort of an abstraction of what people would intuitively think of from the name. Fertility rate is the average number of children a female would have if she experienced the exact current age-specific fertility rates for her entire lifetime. So add the current expectation value of kids at 18 + at 19 + at 20 ... The measure also assumes women all survive the entirety of their reproductive life. For a developed nation where mortality before old age is low and fertility rates have been reasonably constant for an extended period of time, total fertility rate should be close to the real average. Unfortunately, this measure breaks down in developing nations where mortality is non-trivial and reproductive behaviors are actively shifting. For example, if you have a large cohort that is delaying having kids until an older age, then in the short term the fertility rate at their current age range will sharply decrease, but the fertility rate of the older age range won't go up until they actually age into it, leading to a few years of fertility rates being inaccurately low, and then eventually a sudden increase. This is known as the Tempo Effect. It's also worth pointing out that the replacement level fertility depends on the mortality rate, 2.1 is a pretty good estimate for a developed nation, but it is often higher in developing nations. India's fertility rate has been consistently dropping for some time, as is typical for developing nations, so it's not surprising that they're getting a lower value now than 5 years ago, but this may be less qualitatively meaningful than the headlines may imply.

38 points by cwwc 5y ago

According to the map a number of states are far below replacement rate. Combine this with the fact that the numbers seems to go down in general Indias population may shrink pretty quickly within a few decades.

tuatoru 5y ago
For values of "a few" greater than six, perhaps. Girls born recently will continue to have children of their own, and life expectancy is rising along with incomes. Google "demographic momentum". (Wikipedia: Population momentum.[1]). 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum

1cvmask 5y ago

This seems like India is following in China's footsteps. The full tweet: India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement level (2.1 children per women). However there is still significant variation between states. The lowest birth rate is in Sikkim at 1.1, equivalent to Singapore, while the highest is in Bihar at 3.0, equivalent to Israel. - The map in the tweet has a state by state breakdown.

mensetmanusman 5y ago
Seems strange to compare to China when in fact this trend is happening everywhere. China thought they needed the government to enforce low birth rates, but they were wrong, so it turns out they needlessly abused their own women with forced abortions and sterilizations. Wups.
- voakbasda 5y ago
  “We are from the government and are here to help”. These are some of the most terrifying words that I have ever heard uttered.

jjk166 5y ago

It should be noted that the fertility rate is sort of an abstraction of what people would intuitively think of from the name. Fertility rate is the average number of children a female would have if she experienced the exact current age-specific fertility rates for her entire lifetime. So add the current expectation value of kids at 18 + at 19 + at 20 ... The measure also assumes women all survive the entirety of their reproductive life. For a developed nation where mortality before old age is low and fertility rates have been reasonably constant for an extended period of time, total fertility rate should be close to the real average. Unfortunately, this measure breaks down in developing nations where mortality is non-trivial and reproductive behaviors are actively shifting. For example, if you have a large cohort that is delaying having kids until an older age, then in the short term the fertility rate at their current age range will sharply decrease, but the fertility rate of the older age range won't go up until they actually age into it, leading to a few years of fertility rates being inaccurately low, and then eventually a sudden increase. This is known as the Tempo Effect. It's also worth pointing out that the replacement level fertility depends on the mortality rate, 2.1 is a pretty good estimate for a developed nation, but it is often higher in developing nations. India's fertility rate has been consistently dropping for some time, as is typical for developing nations, so it's not surprising that they're getting a lower value now than 5 years ago, but this may be less qualitatively meaningful than the headlines may imply.