3 ms·

Does anybody have a source that has actual information about this variant?

by Rd6n6 5y ago

lamontcg 5y ago
How about Dr. Emma Hodcroft (firefoxx66 on twitter) who is a co-developer of Nextstrain which is the database that is used to track variants? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463797898446049285.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463797898446049285.html > Thoughts: Yes, this variant has a high # of spike mutations, & a few known to cause changes. But, we've seen previous variants that looked worrying & never took off. We should watch & wait for more data to estimate how concerning this is. > Important thing to keep in mind: - SA has recently had relatively low cases - this may leave a void which a new variant can spread into more easily - it likely hasn't had to compete with Delta. In other places, where Delta rages, it may not be as fit. > Important thing to keep in mind: - We don't know what other factors may be helping spread, for example, an event or recent behaviour change - SA has a low vax rate - 28% 1dose, 24% 2dose. Immune evasion may not be needed to spread. Fitness could differ in higher-vax countries. ... I'm very skeptical because Omicron has P681H at the FCS which was already displaced by P681R everywhere. This looks like backwards evolution. It may have evolved in an HIV/AIDS patient in South Africa and adapted itself to in-host immune evasion, and established itself in South Africa into a relative vacuum of spread via founder effects, luck and whatever forces are driving the roughly 6-month cycles of waves that we tend to see. That doesn't mean that it is going to be able to outcompete Delta. Of course it may acquire P681R through mutation or recombination or Delta could pick up some of its novel mutations, or maybe P681H makes a comeback because it gets worse in combination with mutations elsewhere in the genome. Everything is still on the table from this being a flash-in-the-pan that disappears once its faces significant competition from delta, up to it becoming worse. And I may be somewhat downplaying the risks due to everyone else overly assuming the risks when we have no useful information.

Does anybody have a source that has actual information about this variant?

by Rd6n6 5y ago

Does anybody have a source that has actual information about this variant?

How about Dr. Emma Hodcroft (firefoxx66 on twitter) who is a co-developer of Nextstrain which is the database that is used to track variants? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463797898446049285.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463797898446049285.html > Thoughts: Yes, this variant has a high # of spike mutations, & a few known to cause changes. But, we've seen previous variants that looked worrying & never took off. We should watch & wait for more data to estimate how concerning this is. > Important thing to keep in mind: - SA has recently had relatively low cases - this may leave a void which a new variant can spread into more easily - it likely hasn't had to compete with Delta. In other places, where Delta rages, it may not be as fit. > Important thing to keep in mind: - We don't know what other factors may be helping spread, for example, an event or recent behaviour change - SA has a low vax rate - 28% 1dose, 24% 2dose. Immune evasion may not be needed to spread. Fitness could differ in higher-vax countries. ... I'm very skeptical because Omicron has P681H at the FCS which was already displaced by P681R everywhere. This looks like backwards evolution. It may have evolved in an HIV/AIDS patient in South Africa and adapted itself to in-host immune evasion, and established itself in South Africa into a relative vacuum of spread via founder effects, luck and whatever forces are driving the roughly 6-month cycles of waves that we tend to see. That doesn't mean that it is going to be able to outcompete Delta. Of course it may acquire P681R through mutation or recombination or Delta could pick up some of its novel mutations, or maybe P681H makes a comeback because it gets worse in combination with mutations elsewhere in the genome. Everything is still on the table from this being a flash-in-the-pan that disappears once its faces significant competition from delta, up to it becoming worse. And I may be somewhat downplaying the risks due to everyone else overly assuming the risks when we have no useful information.